Handicapper Tips & Picks

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2):

This race in the past has turned out to be a "key" race and while on the weaker side last year, this race has that strong overall look to follow going forward. 

Heading into the BC Juvenile (G1) #2 JONATHAN'S WAY had shown ability in the first two starts though number wise was on the lower end of the rivals in that event. To his credit he stepped up in the figure department and will be tested to hold here as again faces a talented group of improving types. 

#3 TIZTASTIC fits as an improving type one that landed in a KEY+ race on debut and has shown up each time since with versatility along the way. He returned to the main track with a sneaky BTL effort in the Street Sense (G3) last month. #4 DAPPER MOON also from that stakes event and earning the same B- OptixGRADE with a subtle trip (SHUFFLE WIDE MOVE) in their own right.

DAPPER MOON was upgraded from the Breeders Futurity (G1) with a WIDE trip racing against the course profile. #5 FILOSO also returns freshened from the Breeders Futurity (G1) also against the profile making a WIDE MOVE and still showing a solid late kick/CLOSE behind the open length pacesetting winner, East Avenue.

#8 FIRST RESORT was cross entered in the Iroquois (G3) and perhaps drawing the rail the connections decided to run in the Summer (G1) at Woodbine instead. They have held their own pairing B- in graded stakes company though will give up some recency off the bench here while making their two turn debut. Also shipping in from Woodbine, #1 HE'S NOT JOKING could get attention off the Grey (G3) win and new top figure o though concern that was a HARD effort and given little recovery time while stepping up on this circuit, a bigger test than the surface switch.

SEABISCUIT STAKES (G2):

Projected favorite #7 REDESTRICTING would not be any surprise however lacks value without an edge in this group and could present overlays on others. 

D'Amato comes into this race loaded with a trip of runners also class and races in their own right to compete. The shorter on the ML, #10 ALMENDARES has been consistent and while competition with the B place finish in the DMR Mile (G2) they were almost 10-1 on the day; #8 EASTER is value at the ML and one that should be sitting on their best with a return to DMR a course where they have run some of their more competitive races going back to the win in this Seabiscuit (G2) Stakes race last year as well as a X_FLOW CLOSE sneaky good Eddie Read (G2) back in July. #9 MASTEROFFOXHOUNDS deserving of being the longest of the trio though one that also has races on their best day that fit and current progressive form in this third start back off the layoff. 

Progressive form also follows #5 ASTRONOMER this season and one that has been able to fire fresh looks pointed to this event. In the 2023 Seabiscuit (G2) ASTRONOMER raced NO_COVER up close to a Fast early/late pace and still recorded a strong 95 figure in this race last year. That figure is in line with the best from REDISTRICTING and should be 10x the odds here and much longer odds than they were in this race last year coming in with similar form. 

#3 SEAL TEAM also appears pointed to this race in the second start off the layoff and stepping back up to graded stakes company. The trip in the Lure was less than ideal (TACTIC- WIDE MOVE) in an extreme SPACED race shape to present upside. They have three recorded wins those races at a slightly longer 9f distance though perhaps more significant the TACTIC+ trips. 

Based on the ML and connections there could be some live, capable FTS in this field looking to get a race on the grass before the break and return to SA. Looking at the group with experience: A case can be made for #1 TWIRLING LIGHT off their races to date that they have yet to be in the right spot to show their best. They showed run in the August debut at the shorter 5f distance following the SLOG chased WIDE X_FLOW. The placement was ambitious in the Juvenile Fillies Turf just 16-days later though with TROUBLE and showing run in spots projected to IMPROVE at the right level (DROP) and the 78 figures fits with today's par. 

Longshot #9 ISNTSHELOVERLY had a look on 10/4 projected to STRETCH out after their sprint (PREP) debut. They required some time though did show improvement with the change in distance last month showing interest making a WIDE MOVE after a TROUBLE_S and stepped up in the speed figure department.

#7 OSCAR JOY will be tested for distance however in a race that could see a "new face" jump up they could check that box. their speed figures have remained consistent and class for this level turning in a B- back on 9/8 with a TROUBLE trip and solid GALLOP+ and pairing that Grade last month in a BTL show outcome.

One of the older horses #2 LOTTERY PICK paired up B- OptixGRADE efforts at this level course and distance over the summer to upgrade here though still requires some price compensation, something to monitor given the connections and presents of F. Prat. 

#3 SIENNOIS returns with I. Ortiz for the second time these two together and perhaps the key for this horse one that runs their race, though to win requires the right timing. #10 SINE QUA NON could be a bit light for this group of established runners, though remains on the radar and a horse to follow. They showed upside on debut a BTL in their second start coming off the long layoff to break their maiden in August and turned in a sneaky good effort making a CLOSE X_FLOW in the Let It Ride stakes last month.

#6 A VOTRE SANTE has shown progression race-to-race and presents upside in this second start off the layoff, a similar pattern to the 7/25 maiden win. 

#3 WINDS OF FREEDOM was vulnerable coming off a PERFECT trip to break their maiden at a short price in the 10/18 allowance though unexpected EX - EXCUSE given a legit stumble and RUSH WIDE impacting their outcome in addition to a negative form cycle on the day though no excuses not to bounce make here. A compromised WINDS OF FREEDOWN likely assisted the winner #5 FAR WESTERN one that recorded a new top and finds a change in draw and race shape to overcome. 

#8 SUPA SPEED looks live wheeling back from a TRAFFIC TROUBLE EX - EXCUSE in the stakes earlier this month, and with the rider change noting F. Prat in town picking up the call. 

A strange race shape for this compact field with the Snowflake Contention paired with the high 84 SpeedRate. That scenario could see #5 SIDE BY SIDE land in the right time, place, post and trip and the main key; price compensation. 

#4 CARSON'S RUN holds a class edge to validate the role as the favorite. That said they will dins a distance change out of the longer distance events something that can find specialists (i.e. Next) and should be at least factored at a shorter number while still "horse to beat" logical. 

The two outside runners have their work cut out for them on trip though appears price compensation: #12 TWIRLING POINT has yet to run that "fast" race and must step up on that front though to their credit has shown progression, versatility and class in their races to date and upside in this second start off the layoff while reuniting with F. Dettori; #13 CATHAL made their local debut a BTL one coming back to break their maiden at SA in June. They have show progression and upside in the second start of the cycle, the pattern in play here. 

7-HOLEINTHEBOTTLE-Faces an easier group today

2-ITTY BITTY SECRET-Repeat of last would probably win this

8-LITTLEOLDME-Is she ready off layoff?

6-FOXMAN-Just missed; 2^nd Lasix today

3-MAZIN BLAZIN-Lost late lead late; can make amends

1-NUI BA DEN-Drops with better post

4-BOURBON COURAGE-Beware the Indy shipper

7-GOOMSTER-Beaten favorite can make amends

6-JACK VERNON-Been sharp last two

8-DREAM-Flies late to take them

1-JIMMYLAI-Good form makes him main challenge

2-TWO BEAN DREAM-Been facing somewhat tougher

7-DR KRISTINA-Awakens with substantial drop

5-ROCKIN WITH LOU-Can with the right trip

8-SPARKLING DIVA-Improved when dropped to this level

1-WESTERN TREVOR-Basically in good form

6-BULL MARKET-Last was too tough

7-FOX VALLEY RAMIRO-Fast but off almost 3 months

7-SO DARN LUCKY-Hunch in a weak field

4-SCORECARD LIL RED-Logical favorite been hot lately

1-LOUS MIRICLE-Big chance with move to inside

1-FOX VALLEY BOXER-Great form; catch me!

4-FOX VALLEY BRUIN-3^rd in three of last five

6-R TYLER TOWNS-Never far back; can edge by late

2-ASHLEE’S LIL ANGEL-3^rd this level lone local start

9-MSGRANT TWENTYFOUR-Decent middle move vs better in last

7-TRIPLE REVENGE-Was third last two this level