NHC FIRST CHANCE/LAST CHANCE MANDATORY RACE

It is not a race to have a lot of confidence in and perhaps a race where looking at the horses on the track (and board) has value - the type of race where who's day it is, it is. 

In two categories, could separate the group with FG races and the horses shipping in from the other LA track. In terms of the FG group, #8 ONE MORE TIME BABY brings upside progression race to race - SLOG/TROUBLE_S on debut and showed run in spots with a GALLOP+ for the second start and now stretching out. #7 STRUMMIN MARY will also stretch out though some question marks there as the intent for the distance change has not been shown for this now 5yo mare since she started her career as a sophomore. 

#2 EVE EVE is the inbetweener as she has the FG races and competitive race including one over this course distance and condition from last January that would make her the horse to beat. She was in different hands at the time, though the current hands have had her running similar figures since the layoff return and in this third start of the cycle. The front wraps have been added since that break and going back to the earlier comment about visuals, something to look for on the track. 

In terms of the shippers in FG #9 BRAND BOIS has shown progression into this third start and find a sneaky change in class making their first start at the statebred level where a peak effort could be projected. They will be joined by their stablemate #3 TIZ A BREAKUP also making the transition to back to statebred for the first time since last summer. In terms of those statebred events she did not show enough for a winning effort at the time. Number wise she comes in with figures in the range though lacks upside and lack serious value in this spot - could be the first time in her career with single digit odds. 

NHC FIRST CHANCE/LAST CHANCE MANDATORY RACE

This is a good contest race as it really comes down to picking the horse at the right number as there is no strong standout in the group. For example, take the 2/15 common race with the four horses (#2 SIR MENDEL, #4 BE THERE, #6 FLAT TOP BOX, #7 FROST BITTEN) showing up here and while each had some adversity in their own individual ways to play back, there was not much between them overall where taking the higher odds on the board of the group is one approach to take. 

#1 TRIUMPHANT ROAD fits on numbers though softer on class - a higher par coming back today from the MCL TAM win last month and when racing under a similar par in the other maiden events, they came up short on the win end (obv) or of a winning effort. That is not to say they could step up with the confidence, though the number should compensate for that projection.

#5 ETON also value concerns. While they have the local turf experience, this is a rise in race par and giving up recency after the maiden win, a two month break. They were able to control/PRESSED for the 1/11 maiden win and given the complexion of this field (Plot) does not present a notable pace advantage. And if you're making the case for #5 ETON you could probably make the same case for #9 TITAN and find much longer odds. 

#3 BEAN MACHINE could get dismissed on the board and a contender in this race keying off class/figures in prior grass races along with intent in this spot. They take some creativity and form cycle analysis with the current form with the only other turf race this meet, a higher $50k even in December - a layoff that followed before coming back last week and subtle TACTIC-/TROUBLE trip on 3/6 and no worse for the wear (or workout) coming back in here. The rider change suggests intent and for the barn that sent out a string for the first time (possible ever but at least since 2018 I did not go further) and hungry for a win. Jaramillo has been aboard for the closest finishes; intent. 

#8 OLD FLAG has the look of the type of horse that will get a lot of attention and a popular contest pick. People love playing connections and have the higher percentage connections along with a horse that is not favored - the perfect pick (contest or otherwise) type. That should be considered on game theory as well as even live odds to come down from the ML and this horse has question marks with the double layoff lines and gaps in the return works. They fit in this race, though fit on their best day and best day alone. 

 #10 STONE COLD FLEX, #11 CHROMOTION and #12 SUMMER STORM STRIC are all legitimate longshots "stabs"  - there are some select races from SUMMER STORM STRIC that fit on par but those few, select efforts for this horse are highly unpredictable.

NHC FIRST CHANCE/LAST CHANCE MANDATORY RACE

Start the process with the ML favorite #10 JEFE DE OBRA one that fits in that role, though not an exciting type to play (similar for their stablemate #8 HOLDING THE LINE, second choice ML) and depending on where you are and what you need at the time in the day might not even be an option. 

#1 RHUM SAINT ESPRIT is a longshot though not quite in that "stab" territory. They have form over this course and 5.5f distance that fit on par and did post a B OptixGRADE under similar class conditions in the 12/13 race, albeit a lower race par. They were unable to make the lead with the TROUBLE_S last month and project to show more tactical speed at the same time there are others such as the W. Ward pair and #3 DIOS WILL runners that could be quicker to the first call. A scenario that still requires racing luck though can trip out RHUM SAINT ESPRIT with the rail draw waiting inside with first run. The Surface/Distance Plot has their Square in a similar position as #6 NANDO and #7 FREGON - likely shorter odds of the two.

Looking at Plot History, Q4 Square #5 BOOT'S ON THE MOON is not out of it - there have been winners from that Plot position/shape a couple times just this month, a limited sample. 

#4 EASTBOSTONBENNY with the class drop has that edge Above on both Speed/Class and just Average+ Plot.  #2 COERCIVE sits Below on Speed, Below- on Plot and Average on Class - their lone win the maiden win in November, pre Championship Meet was a lower par and the debut and two OC N1 events all with a similar par to today's race.

#9 READIER could be contest playable with the longer odds looking for alternatives with a horse that has things to endorse. Overall they are not a "standout" yet fit and while just the one win, there are not many "bad" races even the 2024 finale was a NO_PUSH and layoff to excuse. The smaller outfit has limited starts this meet, though quietly sending out live while just a few winners (9-10%) is around 54% ITM - 63% with Zayas aboard. READIER does give up recency though one of the wins this season was a 224-day layoff runner. In terms of surface experience, the Tapeta is an unknown though this horse has been consistent from turf to dirt and different dirt tracks to suggest versatility. 

T 6 Gymboree 7 Horse Tradin 2 Barnyard Brenda

P 8 Red Dirt Flash 3 U No Peach 2 Saulsbrook Annie

T 2 Machthenight 6 Maggies Touch 8 Whoops

P 9 Jesss Bright Idea 1 Gooned Again 6 Calcate

P 8 Goldies Rockin 10 Chevrons Bypass 9 Horizon Seelster

T 4 Uncle Douglas 1 Southwind Capone 5 Kadiddle

P 4 Fiscal Policy 2 Silver Beast 5 Baylor Bobby

P 7 St Lads Dark Angel 2 Pretty Missy May 3 Century Kiss Me

P 2 Day Trader 8 Kj Owen 7 Lets Get Pickled

P 4 Bet Nineteen 10 Flying Art 3 Dirty Lil Piglet