Handicapper Tips & Picks

The analysis starts with #6 UNIFIED WEEKEND one that has been consistent this season and while just short on the win end turned in competitive B/B- efforts.  His form and ability to show early speed in today’s race shape should allow for no excuses even if #4 FLYING SAMURAI does provide some pace pressure.

#1 ROCKET HOTSHOT could sit the inside stalking trip though will be required to hold and keep themselves in the race in order to not get left with too much to do late. That similar trip comes into play for common rival #2 CHICKS FOR FREE and #3 TONALTALITARIAN one giving up recency off the 546-day layoff. 

#5 LUCKY SHOT returns with fitness and the key extra furlong of ground to move them up in this second start of the meet and look to turn the tables on #2 STRANGE ARRANGE returning from the 3/30 common race. LUCKY SHOT has more early speed than they were able to show that day and should be able to sit right with and outside of STRANGE ARRANGE to work a trip and first run on the other three in this field. 

Unlike the race shape in the compact field in Race 2, the early pace (40 SpeedRate) and “Sun” Contention could assist runners form off the pace. That should find value as a result with the wagering likely to fall on both #2 BALI DREAMIN and #3 KAELY’S SISTER, runners that fit as the “horse to beat” role and there is a scenario where they run 1-2 around the track, but that is a less exciting scenario to play and should see #1 FIRST KITTEN up in that early mix.

KAELY’S SISTER can be upgraded from first flight group as she makes her second start off the layoff and returning from the 552-day layoff last month was restless in the GATE pushed through did not run off though was reloaded and once in the gate was off a beat slow and had to RUSH into a Fast early pace.

If the contention does present itself, #4 SHEZ STUCK UP could move up and coming into his race with form from a WIDE trip at a higher allowance condition earlier this month at Oaklawn. #5 RACEDAY ATTIRE holds a similar Plot position and strong late kick (Quad IV Square) though lacking the same recency fits off the 181-day break. 

#7 COMEDIC TIMING should present value in this race off the recent running lines though placed where they can compete and improve for the barn. Since the claim back in February at TP they have been protected racing for a higher purse and par than today’s race. They will race for the $25k tag, though given they were claimed for $8k this is still a confident placement for live connections.

#5 CATEGORY TEN might not be the “most likely” in this spot though he is not far off what it takes to compete here. He will take the rise in class returning from the 4/7 race though that was a sneaky good effort making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW following a compromised (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) break over a course that was impacted from earlier WEATHER conditions. 

#6 WINGING WAYS looks to hold a tactical advantage and one that sits over rival #7 BREAKING NEWS as they project to find attention again returning from the pair of place finish efforts this season. WINGING WAYS brings in further upside as they make their second start off the layoff and while they did NO_FINISH the lack of conditioning could have played a role.

Conditioning for a second start off the layoff also upgrades #3 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR as they show up here. They had a hurdle not only coming back from the 255-day layoff but also with the outside post in a full field. The challenges continued as they lunged out of the gate (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) showing run in spots and visuals to suggest they can IMPROVE and Mojica taking over today is also notable.

#5 CHRISTMAS PRESENT has held his form this season and should not be an issue cutting back to the 6f distance today with a solid Surface/Distance Plot position/shape. Class wise today’s race is closer to a lateral change. The change in class is a drop for #1 IRISH VALOR returning from the layoff and another that has some select sprint form that fits to compete with today’s group returning to those efforts and working a trip, something that could require some price compensation.

Centeno does stick with BREAKING NEWS in this spot and had been the regular rider with success aboard #2 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER and while certainly there are no knocks on J. Felix taking over the intent still could be called into question. 

This is a contentious event with many in this field moving up making class changes. That includes both Rivelli runners: #2 GIANNO is the more established this season and prior to those two local starts the connections had entered and scratched a couple of times from MCL races and giving him the chance at MSW this move is reasonable at this point. #8 THE RIDGE is less established and did race for a tag in the debut earlier this month. From a visual standpoint he looked to need the race running GREEN and from physical standpoint should handle the STRETCH, the added ground.

Perez also comes into this race with a similar pair with #6 ICE AXE holding that established edge and fitness returning under similar conditions from a competitive race at the level, though also one of the longtime maidens brings some reservations with price compensation needed. #1 LAUREATE will race for a tag today and one that had some public support in his debut last summer and should bring fitness wheeling back in two weeks off the layoff and from a WIDE trip racing in hand/NO_PUSH.

As far as #3 SHARP STICK he could be no surprise and eventually will catch the right group with a top effort to get the job done. The class change out of Oaklawn on this circuit moves him up naturally though for today’s route race, he must show more on the stamina front. 

#7 GETTIN PAID moves up as they make their second start of the meet and subtle changes from the 4/13 race. They were entered at this level back on 4/6 though their runstyle did not fit the race shape that day and found a softer group for the higher $12.5k N2L condition two weeks ago. Today’s par is similar though they draw better today outside horses after taking KICKBACK in that recent event and their early speed should have them in contention early and on Standard (current form) Quad I Square could sit right off #1 OVERDUE HONOR and the quick #4 MAD DRAGON with first run.

MAD DRAGON will be kept in the number with their early speed and Surface/Distance Plot upgrade with separation on the closing runners, #2, UNCLE DICK, #3 GRAPHENE CASSOCK and #5 STOLICH. 

#7 DESSERT FIRST looked to need a start to regain form over this course and a little more ground than the opening day 5f sprint allowance. They return here and in claiming company with a softer race par than the two races since the February win. Today’s par is similar on this circuit to race here last May when in for the $25k tag and turned in a BTL effort that day in the show finish at the 6f distance.

DESSERT FIRST should be able to work out a trip as well as any in this field shown on OptixPLOT as one of the Larger Squares (finishing ability) in the group. While there is a “Snowflake” Contention (light Quad I) and average 22 SpeedRate, many in this field have had their success on or near the lead and could be more assertive in this race and a tougher pace scenario for #8 SHORT STRAW on the step up from the LONE trips this season and lack of finishing ability (Large Circle) in today’s group.