« 04/26/2024 04/28/2024 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat April 27th, 2024

Download as PDF

Stakes Spotlight

Oaklawn Race 8

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

BACHELOR STAKES: 

To follow the pattern of sprint stakes this season Steve Asmussen comes into the race with multiple runners and contenders with the pair here. #6 VALENTINE CANDY is the more established not just of the stablemates but in this field. He has run competitively here this season in the stakes sprints and should continue to hold back on this circuit and one turn reuniting with Santana the rider that has been aboard for the debut MSW win at SAR, the Ozark as well as the pair of minor finishes last October at KEE.

#5 CATS BY FIVE has improved with each and every start and off their form upgraded into this stakes event. There was no catching #2 FROST FREE when the two met on 3/1 as FROST FREE ran a huge race that day setting a solid pace on the lead, though was LONE on the lead and could find contention up front with the complexion of this field as others are just as quick early and should be kept honest with #7 DREWMANIA one of those just as quick and drawn to the outside will likely have to send.

#4 TIME FOR TRUTH has legit sprint speed and some class to him as they reroute and cut back from the AR Derby (G1) last month. Number wise he ran a huge race, live on debut, that race recording the highest figure in the field. The effort from #1 BERGEN was close from the Jimmy Winkfield win over an off track at AQU though might have been on the better part of the track. He will be out to show he can duplicate that effort as what is likely needed to win here and should get a lot of attention for the connections.

#3 MARKET STREET being one of those runners and like CATS BY FIVE he has improved this year and one that might have been telling the connections he was a sprinter all along. He broke his maiden on debut sprinting at ELP and was quickly rushed into the two graded stakes races last summer at SAR before the distance change. Prior to the sprint allowance win three weeks ago he turned in a sneaky good effort in the Advent stakes on just 13-days rest. 

Oaklawn Race 10

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

DIG A DIAMOND STAKES: 

#3 HOOSIER PHILLY will stretch back out to a route and might have required the conditioning more than the added ground last month in the Matron returning from the layoff and first start over this course. She should have no excuses on that front wheeling right back under 30-days and off a WIDE trip and three strong published works since. The presence of Bejarano aboard is also notable as had been aboard #7 STELLAR LILY this season and Santana the rider that started out with her takes back over today.

#6 OLIVIA TWIST follows a similar second off pattern and some confidence coming into this race off the win last month at SUN. She has form over this course and competitive races and figures last year in the stakes events and those races make her a major contender in this spot.

#8 CRYPTO MO could come in with the same plan as she makes her second start of the year and decent place finish three weeks ago and return to Oaklawn. She has a start over this course last season that race was first off the layoff, contested at 6f and 6th place result though visually suggested she could improve and did just that in her sophomore season closing out the year winning the Iowa Oaks (G3) on the front end. She projects to take up that role here though should find company up front and will be tested.

With some options in this field, Arrieta shifting to #2 I’M THE BOSS OF ME over #1 WILDWOOD BYE is notable for this race and looking for that belated win and along with he distance change stretching out for the first time in a long time and third time overall. WILDWOOD BYE wheels right back once again and one that finished as part of the BLANKET at the wire on 3/30 along with 35 ABSINTHE returning here and could be intent for her and this stakes race second off the layoff though must improve overall and in with this more established group.