Handicapper Tips & Picks

B. Cox will make a belated debut with #2 PURE FORCE one that had some setback though trained like a good one before the break and coming back around into this year and for this debut on the big weekend. #6 HOUSE UNITED can IMPROVE off their FG debut showing run though TROUBLE and a slight step forward has them on par with the more “established” maidens in this field. 

No knocks on ML favorite #6 SCYLLA in this spot and the connections wheeling right back in two weeks for this race suggest she is still holding her form and conditioning. More exiting/value sits with #3 JOKE SISI one that is suited to the ONE_TURN and has competitive races from last season with class and speed figure on par for this event and in line with many in this field. #1 NAVY GOAT must pick it up though upgraded from a BTL effort in her most recent (2/29) start and her love maiden track race here last September was sneaky good (B-) given the TROUBLE_S making a MOVE and strong GALLOP+. 

#1 RAISE CAIN is a live longshot that should hold his number given the most recent starts coming back this cycle along with the rail which often scares the public on that alone. He was given a stiff test in California showing up in the Malibu (G1) and showed more than the outcome gave credit to and visually projected to IMPROVE. He was off a few months following and before making a return in the Commonwealth (G3) where he can be upgraded once again making a MOVE through TRAFFIC all while X_FLOW.  Today’s race shape should allow him pace to target and make his run with potentially #11 HOIST THE GOLD as the controlling speed though at the times he has shown that brilliance has been with track profiles and favorable setups. 

#5 LEGEND OF TIME is taken seriously in here and one that is likely favored. While he is respected some value can be found including #11 CUGINO with a solid BTL place finish with a credit to class to earn that placing with TROUBLE and X_WIDE trip. #9 NOTED coming off an EX – EXCUSE in the JR Steaks Stakes (G3) and solid turf form prior to that start. 

#6 T LAW has consistently recorded some of the higher figures with competitive races at this level. He should be assisted by the layoff return at this level two weeks ago making a strong CLOSE at the 6f distance and stretches right back out to a route. He has the edge in this field over #3 LITTLE STEVEN and value should the discrepancy hold by post time.

#1 JET FLIGHT has a little more foundation in this third start of the season from the 4/21 common race and moving forward race to race his figure from the maiden win last year is a touch below those other two though not by much and as a lightly raced type can still hold a move forward where as the other two are proven who they are.

#2 BOURBON LIFE wheels right back and turned in a competitive race at a slightly lower level here on 4/7, their stablemate in that event, Category Ten came back to win a conditional $25k claiming event last Saturday, 4/27.  BOURBON LIFE will be tested on the quick turnaround, protected just over a week ago return back to this circuit.

#5 ANCIENT MAN comes into this race lighter on figures and class for this level, though in current form that could be enough for a share. He stretches back out to the preferred distance, though not quite the N1 level on 4/6 when NO_PUSH that day and wheeled back on 4/13 with a sneaky good BTL effort in the 4^th place result. 

#7 MILOLE MAGIC will step up to take on winners though a reasonable placement on this circuit and lateral change in purse/par from the MCL event at TP. She will be taking on older as well though has the foundation from her juvenile season and the NYRA turf figures at the time sit on par.

#9 PROBLEMATICA also will take on older and off a recent maiden win though had a look off that race and back to the turf. Her lone turf start on 12/8 earned a strong figure and the number was not an outlier as that race held form and she could pop with that effort, a race that fits here on the grass and would be the time to catch her at a price.

#8 ANGEL EXPRESS returns to the turf and holds experience over this course and positive timing in the second start back off the layoff – PREP.  She can easily present upside from the 3/30 trip a little WARM on the day and chasing in TRAFFIC in a contentious and productive event with three next out winners.

#6 BALI BABY will not be dismissed as a longshot in this race. She comes into this event with the rise in class though back to her preferred surface/distance and her turf races while perhaps a touch light on the win end in the past N1X allowance events, recorded numbers on par with many in this field and catches a lower par than those prior events. 

This is a competitive group with a case to be made on all five in this spot. #2 RIVZONAROLL could be the speed of the speed in this race and sitting on a peak effort with the class change and out of a productive allowance on 3/31 with horses improving and holding their form. They have kept this horse after the drop on 12/2, the one race that makes him eligible and after losing him via the claim went right back in quickly reclaimed for the higher tag and has been protected since. 

#2 STYLE is a big move up in this race. Looking at the Plot she is a Large Square in Quad II,  a change from many of her races when positioned in Quad IV. The “Fire” Contention rating should assist to work a trip and placement from the connections taking a class drop for this race could all come together at the right time and for that belated win for the barn since the claim. #5 LADY ATLANTIC could also move up in today’s race shape and Standard Square stronger than rival, #7 SUMMER AT THE SPA and not far off rivals #3 STACK SHACK and #6 GO STORMIN GIRL. The stronger figures and races for LADY ATLANTIC were prior to the line layoffs she returned from and taking notice on Standard (current form) she is moving in the right direction for this race and group and could be a further positive with Mojica aboard.

#7 RIVER RIDGE caught the eye in his debut making a WIDE MOVE and presents upside off that initial start and with that noted the debut figure already sits as the highest in the field.

#4 TOSCANO was set to debut last month at AQU as well as KEE unable to draw in off the AE that day and worked here on 4/19 that same day. He is in capable hands and only saw one quick breeze from the gate back in January heads up with Ravin's Town.

#8 YOUNG MISCHIEF will also debut here as a late season (September foal) four-year-old for a capable barn. The barn was a perfect one-for-one with debuting runners here at Hawthorne last year with first time starting juvenile Jack Sprat at 7-2. In 2022 did not debut a runner at Hawthorne though sent out four FTS in MSW company at Fan Duel with 2 wins and a show. Jockey Bailon was named when they were entered to debut during the first part of the meet (aboard for one of those FD wins at 14-1 and the show at 11.9-1) and noting that O. Mojica has the call here.

The analysis starts with #4 SIMPLE LOGIC one that will make the return to the claiming level for the first time in a longtime. The move should be right looking for a win and has held his form and figures, just a touch below a required “winning” effort at the allowance level. While capable, his overall form is not much (if at all) stronger than others in this field and as they project to get their fair share of attention that could create some overlays on others.

#2 RED HORNET with a return to top form is the horse to beat. He can be given another look not just with a return to the turf but from the races this season starting with an excuse opening weekend (3/24) and subtle trip on 4/7 where he was compromised with the race shape and upgraded all around.

#8 LAND MARK DEAL is upgraded with the shift back to TURF and off his prior grass form including the races around two turns, something they were looking for in July (2 scratch off-turf) following a TROUBLE+ trip show finish on 6/22.

#5 ROGUE ELEMENT could sneak away on the board and might be the right time to take a swing. He will return to the turf, a surface where he has recorded some of his higher figures and figures in line with today’s par and rivals. His also has shown progression with each start this season, keying off a ‘trip” as shown in the Past 3 Runlines from the 3/31 return and taking KICKBACK separating himself from the others on 4/14 and less likely to deal with that on this surface.

#3 SIERRA HOTEL will take a rise in class, though proven over this course and distance under similar conditions to today’s race. He likely needed the return (PREP) and given a subtle and sneaky flow-upgrade from the 4/13 race. 

#7 DEFIANT MALICE is deserving of another look and the connections taking another slight drop looking to clear this condition. He had legit TROUBLE on both of the local starts this season and showed run in spots through that adversity and against the dynamic.

In terms of race par, this is a lateral move despite the claiming tag rise for #1 LUCKY PAL making his second start of the season. He was upgraded last month and from his debut, a race that was given a slight excuse with the SLOG against the profile and had been off since returning with the class drop. The move up is a confident move and respected from a respectable BTL effort making a huge WIDE BURST for position and into a duel with eventual 1-5 chalk winner, Charted.

In terms of the projected odds and as individuals there is not much between #8 THE SPEEDY ONE and #9 BORDER PATROL in this race. THE SPEEDY ONE has the slight edge with recency and the class drop though one that lacks early speed and cutting back to a sprint, needs to be much the best (at the shorter odds) to overcome. BORDER PATROL has some early speed though closer to a lateral move from the most recent start at TAM; and by recent start that was 136-days ago creating reservations on that front as well. 

#1 DEGREE OF RISK is legitimate in this spot he is the class of the field and stands out number wise if he started from the parking lot he still might win this race. He turned in a competitive B- OptixGRADE race with an X-WIDE trip in his return on 3/23 at TP keeping in mind the top two finished together at the wire and he was in a blanket for the other minors right off that pair. They were entered earlier this week at CD in a higher level allowance though unable to draw in off the AE and the race moved to the main track as well.