« 05/03/2024 05/05/2024 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat May 4th, 2024

Download as PDF

Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 T Law - 7-2 3 Little Steven - 8-5 2 Bourbon Life - 5-2

Let's see if this is the first career training victory for Irvin Moreno, a longtime assistant to Frank Kirby. Best around two turns, this one posted a solid effort on return while sprinting, running on late. He figures to sit off the pace in here but should get enough speed in from of him to chase. 3-LITTLE STEVEN is one of those with speed who comes out of the same sprint as T Law last out. He chased and ran on late in that spot as he figures to go off favored today. 2-BOURBON LIFE returns to Hawthorne after a trip to Indiana where he never factored while facing tougher. He drops back in for the tag today and figures to be in the mix if he runs back to his race two starts back.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Samarita - 5-1 3 First Love - 9-2 5 She's Inthearmynow - 3-1

This race looks more like a dirt sprint than a turf race. She's never run on the grass but 2-SAMARITA should be very tough in here from just off the pace. She comes off a starter win at Keeneland in her last and was able to string together six victories last summer. As long as she avoid the early pace battle I expect she is a major player late for a barn that is having a fine meet. 3-FIRST LOVE has speed and almost held on in her last. She shortens up an eighth in here which could get her to the wire in time. 5-SHE'S INTHEARMYNOW is another with speed who was a good second to a different Tanner Tracy horse in her last. She has a couple of easy works in Kentucky since that start but figures to be a player in here on turf or dirt.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 4:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Go Stormin Girl - 7-2 2 Style - 6-5 5 Lady Atlantic - 15-1

There is zero early pace in this race, which is the one thing that could work against likely heavy favorite Style. Looks like maybe 6-GO STORMIN GIRL could try for the front as she has had tons of success over this race. She was a good winner in her last with a late rally but I expect she is much closer early in here. 2-STYLE has the class edge on these as she looks to gain some confidence on the drop. She was running on late in her last but the speed cleared and never stopped. To win today she is going to have to rate much closer early. 5-LADY ATLANTIC could be the other potentially to show some speed with there. She runs her best races at Hawthorne and at this distance. Don't be surprised if Mojica is aggressive early from the gate. 

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 River Ridge - 2-1 4 Toscano - 5-2 2 Pontus - 5-1
This field looks to have a couple of promising maidens in here. 7-RIVER RIDGE comes in off a good debut effort in his last. He stalked in there and ran on evenly in the lane. He has posted an easy drill over the track since that start as a repeat of that performance should make him a factor today. 4-TOSCANO debuts for Rivelli as he has a consistent workout pattern leading toward his debut. With Lasix first out and the trend for the barn, expect to see some speed from him in here. 2-PONTUS ran on nicely in his last as he faces open-company today. If he gets the pace to chase, don't be surprised if he is picking off horses in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
13 Beealea - 5-1 11 Bluegrass Parkway - 9-2 8 Land Mark Deal - 10-1

If this race is moved to dirt, I don't want to miss out on 13-BEEALEA as he has been good over this track. He showed the ability to rate closer early in his last and ran on late behind a strong winner. This barn is having a good meet and the post should improve if the race does come off turf. 11-BLUEGRASS PARKWAY looks to be solid on turf or dirt as he comes off a short layoff into here. He closed to win behind a slow pace three back and may not get much more to chase in here either. 8-LAND MARK DEAL is another that is good on turf or dirt. He makes his second start of the year but benefits from the move back to two turns.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 The Speedy One - 3-1 9 Border Patrol - 2-1 7 Defiant Malice - 9-2

The class drop and move back to a sprint should benefit 8-THE SPEEDY ONE as he makes his second start of the meet. He ran a good second in his debut before stepping up to face tougher in his next three. With the drop back down, expect him to turn things around. 9-BORDER PATROL comes in from Tampa for this spot as he makes his second consecutive start on the main track. He has speed in a race that is lacking pace as he should be able to clear from the outside. 7-DEFIANT MALICE drops a notch as he has a little tactical speed and should be able to get into the mix. The barn has had an excellent meet and Felix is riding well.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 6:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Dapper Dude - 15-1 13 Ronic - 10-1 10 Aquacat - 12-1

Let's see if we can catch some prices in here as there's a decent amount of pace in the race. Let's see if 6-DAPPER DUDE can rally in time while at a big price. He ran on late behind a good daylight winner in Camp Daddy and that one stepped up to defeat Optional Claiming company in his next. He looks to be solid on turf or dirt and will likely be a price. 13-RONIC is a threat if he draws in as he steps back up off the claim today. He has tactical speed and has worked well over this track. 10-AQUACAT has speed and could be the one looking to clear in here. He comes off a bit of a layoff into this spot but has worked consistently toward the return. Let's see if he can clear in here.