Handicapper Tips & Picks

So much to look at for this year's Derby for a three-year-old crop that hasn't been tremendous to this point. With that said, there is always the potential for horses to continue to grow and mature as they get older so expect some of these to be factors as the season continues. Quick thoughts on the entire Derby field before looking at my selections:

1 - Dornoch - I was high on him off back to back wins in the Remsen and Fountain of Youth but he didn't take a step forward in the Blue Grass. With others with pace in here, the inside will be very tough to compete from.

2 - Sierra Leone - I'm taking a stand against him in the Derby and if he beats me, so be it. His running style is not conducive to winning this race and his gate antics in the Blue Grass were worse. In the Derby he won't be given the ability to be loaded last and could lose his race before the gates even open. There's zero value at 3-1.

3 - Mystik Dan - 20-1 would be a great price but I don't think you'll get it. He had all sorts of trouble in the Arkansas Derby but should be much better here, over a track he has run well at.

4 - Catching Freedom - Of the deeper closers I'd rather take 8-1 or higher on him than 3-1 on Sierra Leone. He has improved in every start and is progressing in the right direction.

5 - Catalytic - Honestly it wasn't a bad race in running 2nd in the Florida Derby. I wouldn't completely dismiss his chances of hanging around for a piece at a monster price.

6 - Just Steel - Ran some decent races in the Arkansas preps but not sure he's up to the ability of these. Tough ask for young jock Asmussen on this stage.

7 - Honor Marie - His moves always seem to be while very wide. With a field this size that could mean he's 8-10 wide in the stretch. Fully expect he's much higher than his 20-1 morning line.

8 - Just a Touch - Was up close to a very fast pace in the Blue Grass and hung in to the wire. He wouldn't surprise me if he continues to improve.

9 - Encino - Getting better with each start but his best races are on the lead, something he is very unlikely to see in this race.

10 - T O Password (Jpn) - In due to Win and You're in stipulation. He should be twice his 30-1 ML odds.

11 - Forever Young (Jpn) - The far better of the two Japanese runners in here. He's my top pick, he's very, very good. The Japanese breeding program on dirt has greatly improved in recent years. Go back and watch the UAE Derby, he was ultra impressive while racing wide the entire trip.

12 - Track Phantom - A speedy type that now adds blinkers for the Derby. Brutal outside draws in last two and still raced well. I wonder though, does he wing it for the lead and burn out Fierceness in here? Possibly....

13 - West Saratoga - Just doesn't seem fast enough to me. 

14 - Endlessly - Can't knock a horse that has won five of six to open his career. He's never raced on conventional dirt though. But in the 30-1 to 40-1 range he wouldn't completely surprise me if he hung around for a piece.

15 - Domestic Product - He did finish ahead of Fierceness in the Holy Bull and won a very slow Tampa Bay Derby. Just not sure he's fast enough to win this race.

16 - Grand Mo the First - Stalking type but hasn't won beyond 5 1/2 furlongs. Does the Rich Strike impact keep him around 50-1, maybe.

17 - Fierceness - The deserving favorite off the Florida Derby and he did defeat Muth in the BC Juvenile last year. The concern is he has shown he's an every other race type of horse, which could set him up for an off day. A work last week that wasn't overly impressive over this surface leaves some concern as well.

18 - Stronghold - Normally the California circuit is where the top horses come from, but the two best out West were Nysos and Muth and neither are in this race (although if either were healthy and allowed in I think they would win). He's run well in his two starts this year but didn't take a leap from the Sunland Derby to Santa Anita Derby. Just think he needs to improve to compete in here.

19 - Resilience - A solid victory in the Wood but much like the Santa Anita Debry that wasn't a great bunch. Velazquez rightfully chooses Fierceness as this was a horse who finished behind Stronghold over this track last fall.

20 - Society Man - Trainer Danny Gargan couldn't have gotten it much worse with Dornoch drawn on the rail and Society Man on the far outside. He isn't fast enough to win this race.

21 - Epic Ride - It wasn't a bad race in the Blue Grass but he had a perfect trip and just ran evenly in the lane. He's better than some others that are in the field but still likely only a bottom half of the field finisher if he draws in. 

22 - Mugatu - Aside from the Zoolander references, he's not fast enough. Put in at 30-1 but should have been 50-1.

With all of that said, I'm selecting 11-FOREVER YOUNG to win the Derby. He's undefeated, he's improved with every start and won the UAE Derby off a wide trip but under a very confident rider. He can race from just about anywhere and will provide some value in this field. 17-FIERCENESS is easily the best horse on his best day. The problem is that isn't every day. He has speed, he wins from on or near the lead, but he had the easiest of trips in the Florida Derby. Expect so much other pace pressure in here. Last year a bunch challenged early and Two Phil's was the only one to hang around late, finishing second. It could be the same in here for Fierceness. 3-MYSTIK DAN would love to see some rain on Derby day as it moves him up. Even without rain he can contend in here. He battled after trouble in the Arkansas derby but ran on late. Not sure we get the 20-1 on him though. 4-CATCHING FREEDOM is one of only a few in here that has consistently improved with each race. That was a big effort behind a slow pace in the Louisiana Derby and there will be so much more pace to chase in here. I expect he's a clear third choice at post time. 5-CATALYTIC intrigues me as he chased and was a clear second in the Florida Derby. That was just his first start around two turns as potentially he could improve while at a massive price.

KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) 

This year in the KY Derby there are two horses that are likely to get a lot of attention though in terms of overall race strengths, perhaps not the strongest edition as a whole. The analysis should start with assessment of the favorites and working to poke as many holes as possible in those runners before working outward to the others. #17 FIERCENESS has presented himself as the horse to beat and his tactical speed makes him a threat in terms of trip in a full field getting out in front of others. While initially, he was my “pick” as the “horse to beat” he’s fast, class tested and tactical but the races where he runs bad, he runs bad. The Holy Bull (G3) is not a race I can get past as a horse that is going to be a favorite in this race. In terms of #2 SIERRA LEONE he is a good horse with talent and on outcome had some little wrong. The devil is in the details as he was very reluctant to load in the GATE in the Blue Grass (G1) and drifting some (NO_LINE) things that could be real hurdles on this big day and big field. He has looked as good as any in the morning and that does give SIERRA LEONE and upgrade. 

This race forces opinions and often they are that forced but often they strong and #18 STRONGHOLD. When looking at this horse there is nothing to knock. He has stepped up with each start and improved this year as a sophomore going in the right direction for this race. Like FIERCENESS, STRONGHOLD has a similar Runstyle with tactical speed to put himself into the race and class to pass horses and resist getting passed late. He has a win at CD and intent could be taken one step further as the connections based out in California made it a point to get this one races in KY right from the jump and could be a tell what they thought of him even before he made his first start. 

On numbers he has not run quite the numbers of FIERCENESS (no one really has) but is fast enough to contend; nor does he have the "eye-catching" visuals of SIERRA LEONE though holds a similar record of graded stakes wins with foundation. In any case, he will be much longer than those two with many of the same boxes checked. In terms of playing this race, STRONGHOLD will be THE key horse. 

#12 TRACK PHANTOM should be flying under the radar. He might not be on this level as a true contender though for a share, he is an include. 

On the fence for both #11 FOREVER YOUNG and #7 HONOR MARIE as they make sense though some questions remain and will be used to some degree lesser than initially thought. Based on form and trip #3 MYSTIC DAN and #4 CATCHING FREEDOM in underneath spots. #1 DORNOCH was and still might be in the mix though information this week about quarter cracks has surfaced and must be noted. 

THE KENTUCKY DERBY

Fierceness might be the best horse in the race but there’s no guarantee that he’ll get the best trip or even a good trip. I know his connections say they like the draw but he’s going to have to work awfully hard to get position from out there with all the speedy runners to his inside. So, I opted to look for a runner that could take advantage of what promises to be a blistering early pace and that seems to have the ability to get the 10-furlong distance. 2-SIERRA LEONE just seems to get better with every start. He’s only a nose away from a perfect four-for-four record. Like that he was starting to draw away in his two races this year, both at nine furlongs. The pace sets up but, as always, it’s going to come down to the trip. 4-CATCHING FREEDOM is another who could be favored by the pace. He’s another that has been steadily progressing. He finished a couple lengths behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star but went on to capture the Louisiana Derby at a mile and three sixteenths. However, like top pick and all the other deep closers in this race, they have to deal with traffic jams and one brief check could cost them the race.  Obviously 17-FIERCENESS is the one to beat. The Beyer Speed Figure (110) he generated in the Florida Derby was INSANE and people often use the last Beyer as a handicapping source. Obviously in a 20-horse field the trip is all-important and he could struggle to get the right trip from his outside post but he might really be that good. Would love to see the Japanese entrant 11-FOREVER YOUNG run well. By most reports, he is one of the best Japan ever sent here for this race and his perfect record, 5-for-5, lends credence to those reports.