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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun May 5th, 2024

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Howard's Late Pick 4

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:50 PM CST
Analysis by Howard Kravets

Race 5: 1 – 2 – 3

Pick4: 1,2,3 / 5 / 1 / ALL  ($15)

A nice allowance field going two turns comes together to kick off the Late P4, and I’ll go with #1 Graceleadsushome (4-1), who has been facing La.-breds in New Orleans recently. Those races are on par with company here, and I like the tactical speed the mare will show from the inside. Trainer Roussel spots his horses well and should have this one ready off the brief layoff.

 Race 6:  5 – 7 – 3

 I’ll be very surprised if #5 Ronic (7-5) losses today. He won last time routing and now turns back to a sprint, but he had been facing MUCH tougher throughout his career until he dropped down to $5k claimers in his last. Back up the class ladder, but one he should handle with aplomb.

Race 7: 1 – 5 – 4       

#1 Driven One (9-5) is only 3-for-23 lifetime, but has found a very good spot today from the rail while making his 2024 debut. He’s effective on both surfaces and tries dirt today vs. a very soft field. If he’s ready off the layoff for talented trainer Brittany Vanden Berg, he’ll be tough to beat with Felix in the saddle.

Race 8: 9 – 1 – 2

The last race today is a real puzzler. So much so, that I’ve decided to hit the “all-ball” in the Late Pick 4. And because it’s wide-open, I need to find a price, and that horse will be #9 Money Agent (8-1). Even though the 4yo colt is stepping up in class from $6,250 to $20k, those cheaper races were on dirt. He’s been much more effective/faster on turf however, and has never faced this low a level on the grass. If he gets a good trip/ride, he has a big shot to upset the well-balanced field.