Handicapper Tips & Picks

2-MO SMOKING raced unexpectedly well in her local debut. While not close at the finish, she dueled better rivals for much of the race and held on to lose by only a couple. Drops to a more realistic level today. She was racing for $5k a couple months ago so this drop shouldn’t raise caution flags. 3-PRINCESS TENKO seems like the only competition. Tampa shipper didn’t show much in her first start after getting claimed by this barn but her speed figures suggest she’s just faster than any in here with the exception of top choice. 1-POINT OF INFINITY showed little in her first start for this barn but she was racing for the first time since August and obviously needed the race.

1-HEAVENLY HASH is two-for-two since getting claimed by this barn and shipping to Hawthorne and racing on dirt for the first time. She’s taking on a bit better today but does seem likely to keep her recent win streak intact. 4-SWEET CRYSTAL drops in claiming price to make her first start since August. Her works have been moderate but her barn brings them ready. 2-YOU’RE A DANDY finished second in her last two races. However, her recent speed figures suggest that she might not be nearly as fast as Sweet Crystal. Guess we’ll see.

There is other speed in the race but think 2-BEEHIVE holds the edge in that department. She’s coming off a wire-to-wire maiden victory. Believe she’ll be able to score back-to back front-end victories with a similar effort today. All the 1-MISS RIVER RAT lacked so far has been real estate and the slight stretch in distance to six furlongs gives her that missing ingredient today. If top pick grabs an easy lead, there might be no catching her, but if a contested pace does develop, this filly might be the first to fly by. 6-REBA ATTACK faced two tough winners in her first two starts this year and finds herself in against some tough foes again today. She did finish second in those last two races. However, she tends to lose ground late and the extra distance of this race doesn’t work in her favor. 3-BOYCE’S BANDITA graduated in open company. This will be the first time that she faces state breds since her debut last June. Certainly worth a look.

2-COLLIER has never shown a lot but her last couple races here weren’t terrible and she’s dropping to face, by far, the easiest field of her career. 4-MAGGIE E is likely to break on the lead and will take it until she runs out of gas. Just not sure she’ll last long enough. 7-WRITTEN CONSENT has been in better form than most in here, she finished in the money in seven of her 14 starts, and her speed figures suggest she’s among the fastest. 

2-R KATIEBUG could be tough on the front end. She appeared to be all out to beat state-bred allowance foes, in a dirt sprint, in last but doesn’t seem likely to face a whole lot of competition for the front end today. She just missed in her previous two turf races. Maybe she’ll hang on today. 3-I’M BOX OFFICE could finish fastest of all. She hasn’t raced since August and a troubled start in her last made her effort there far worse but she’s been training well for a barn that brings them off layoffs ready to roll. 1-GRACELEADSUSHOME has been racing competitively against Louisiana breds this year. Her two turf victories stand out in this field. Seems likely to be the one racing closest to top pick early and could be the first to move if R Katiebug runs out of gas.

3-COUNTRY GUY could be a bit of a sleeper. He finished second in his local debut after winning his previous two starts in New Orleans. Loses his talented “bug” rider but utilizes a top-notch journeyman instead. His barn is quietly having a great meet. Might surprise with this one. Morning-line favorite 5-RONIC could easily be the best of these. He was claimed from an easy win at the Fair Grounds in his last start and his barn has been on fire all meet. However, he has been better going long and most of his previous races were on the lawn. He’ll be coming late but he just might be vulnerable. 7-JOYFUL GHOST certainly figures. He’s been in great form at Tampa where he finished in the money in six of his last seven races. He’s dropping a notch after a lackluster effort versus better in last and he does fit perfectly at this level.

Hated to pick 1-DRIVEN ONE for many reasons but he does seem most likely. He’s dropping to a better level, he owned good speed in the past and there is virtually no other speed in the race, and he races for talented connections, and he’s done well with Felix in his irons. However, his first two works of the year were great but his last two not so much and he’s been far better on turf. 4-NOT VERY GENTLE returns from a lengthy layoff with only modest drills but he has done well on this track and at the distance. He beat better claimers in his last race. Might be ready for these. 8-MILLARD’S SMILE has a win and a place in his last two races. Meets better here but does seem to fit.

2-GIANNO has had three races. He just missed in one of them and finished up the track in the other two. But this will be his first race on turf and the first time he takes on maiden claimers. He’s bred for the lawn and races for the top barn. Might get it done. 7-RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM drops into maiden claimers for the first time. He’s been meeting mostly Louisiana breds with little success but it could still be a whole new ballgame with runners at this level. 1-EUCLID AVENUE has been much better since dropping into maiden claimers. His barn does well with runners making the transition from the main track to the weeds. With his good speed, he’s a threat to take this from flag fall to finish.