Handicapper Tips & Picks

Looking at the Plot the contention should be honest and set up #5 LAND MARK DEAL to work the right trip and at the right level to pick up a belated win. He should secure first run on #1 MILLARD’S SMILE one capable of winning right back for the new connections and in form though could be further back today and likely short with those noted factors here.

The early pace is tricky as the two Q1 runners are not E/EP types and forced into that role. That includes #4 TWO COOKIE RULE one that has held his own turned in a winning effort at longer odds back on 7/18 though has since come up short and visually might benefit from more time between starts something they lack here. As far as #6 BANDIT SWANSON he has races on return showing progression race-to-race and can be upgraded though requires visuals once again with the present front wraps. 

As far as the non-statebred runners: it is possible #4 HA HA GLORIA will command some wagering support here though overall must step up and comes into this race with numbers lighter than her rivals and while proven on the turf and decent races over this course, must still contend with winners and improve in the process. #5 GRAYTANA will also be tested to step back up in class, however her race at this level on 7/6 was credible forced to DUEL X_FLOW and could turn out to be the ”speed of the speed” given the 5f distance.

In the statebred group: #2 DEVIL will make her TURF debut though off the visuals should handle the surface switch, at the least transfer her form/figures, though could even improve and has the edge on that front. In terms of the V. Childers pair, #3 CLOEY ATTACK has stepped up with each race this season and remaining on this circuit whereas #6 REBA ATTACK moved to FD to pick up the recent wins though has held her form all season and kept in the minor mix. 

Looking at the Plot, the presence of #4 ACCELERATING BABE should make things tougher on #1 SAPPHIRE NIGHTS with the rail draw and the dominate speed to their outside. There is a scenario where those two run 1-2 in this spot with the others off the pace and hoping to pick up horses late.

#2 WRITTEN CONSENT took the drop in the 8/18 common race and a little more could have been expected from here though was cold on the board, giving up recency from the 42-day freshening and had some TROUBLE_S as well as a WARM_UP, some subtle factors to project she has a move forward and can become more competitive here. #7 SEQUAYA should also find herself more competitive today. For the first time in a long time, she moves off the rail and overall better draw something that has played against her and would be the time (and price) to jump on board. Keeping with the Plot theme, SEQUAYA’s position is right there with WRITTEN CONSENT and #5 BABAS GAL and should be the higher odds of that trio. 

The change in class is notable for #7 ERNESTINA though primarily the distance cutting back to ONE_TURN from the recent two turn event. She can upgraded racing WIDE X_FLOW and in terms of the finish was given a NO_PUSH after losing position late. The timing and class drop also should assist #6 QUEEN ANNA T one that has some gate (TROUBLE_S) issues in the two recent higher MCL starts in KY and overmatched (DROP) in each of the three as well. Those two hold the edge over the others with races at this MCL level this season and even #3 CHIQUITA REINA one that finds closer to a lateral change in class, something that should keep her in the minor mix, though a touch light in terms of a prime contender. 

With the two B. Vanden Berg runners #2 FRANKEL BABY and #6 GET THE CANDY joined by #3 RAMBERT and kept honest with #7 MADELYN BELLE in the race and drawn outside the early pace should be Contentious (Sun) and honest (43 SpeedRate) to assist a runner from off the pace. Looking the Plot that upgrades the two QIV Squares with the edge to #1 FROSTED ÉCLAIR as a contender based on the form this season whereas #4 CHROME ATTACK, requires a lot of racing luck to win under these conditions though strong underneath type.

The Plot is not overly favorable to #5 SHE’S WANDAFUL though capable under today’s conditions to work a trip. Her form coming into this race is progressive looking at the Past 3 Runlines and holds back numbers on the turf in the 5.5f sprints from last August that stack up on par and used a similar progressive form cycle to get to those wins. 

With a bulk of the field returning from the 8/11 common race it is worth noting the course profile that day and for that event favoring runners on the lead and won gate to wire by Sendemdowntheroad with minimal change in running order. The race favorite, #2 CAPTAIN’S FLAG was stepped on from behind (TROUBLE_S) soon after the start and forced into the race losing place late to #6 MALIBU BRAD one that also had TROUBLE_S and those two should be forward in today’s race looking at the Plot and with layoff returnee #7 ULTIMATE FIGHTER all positioned in Quad I.

Trip should fall to #8 LARRY’S LUNCHBOX taking a different path and slight 49-day freshening into this event. The outside post along with the race shape works in his favor and has been his most competitive under similar conditions including the 5/25 race recording the B OptixGRADE, a winning race for the level. #1 KEYSER could also find pace to target and a fair surface that as noted, had him up against it three weeks ago. 

#7 AMERICAN MAYHEM looks live in this spot as he makes his second start back off the long layoff and returning to the sprint distance. The placement here both sprinting and remaining protected in allowance company is favorable and brings further upside with the 34-day return and fitness PRESSED on a Fast early/late pace in the recent Ellis Park return to the races – the C. Block winner, Out of Deductions winning from off the pace. The change in distance should not have them on the lead here with proven sprint speed in the race and the dynamic with the OptixRPM showing 8 of the 9 with either the E/EP Runstyle and AMERICAN MAYHEM the long PC with the Large stalking Square. 

#7 GLOBAL EMPIRE had the buried form and class to provide value setting up the win on 8/4 and looks well placed to repeat. He should hold his form here with confidence under A. Santos, the returning rider. He should look for a similar stalking trip with tactical speed and could see a slightly more assertive rider on #2 DOUBLE THUNDER; however if they try to rate the plan for Ulloa should be to send #4 SLAVA UKRAINI today and perhaps that allows them the edge to try and give this field the slip and potential wire-to-wire threat. The Plot position/shape is tough to ignore on #3 HANDSOFFTHEGOODS (granted he had benefit from favorable trips as of late) as well as #8 ROCKET HOTSHOT though will be tested for class showing up here with O. Mojica taking over as A. Santos sticks with GLOBAL EMPIRE. 

This is a competitive race with the entire field placed where they can compete and comes down to trip and which runner will put forward their best race on the day. That includes some slightly “new” faces: #2 DRAMA QUEENIE in that role making her first start in at the MCL level and could move up second off and coming back from the 8/15 race where she was likely “given” the needed (GREEN) return as the barn sent out a well-intended stablemate winner in Absolute Miracle pointed to the main track that day.

The change in surface (TURF) and distance (STRETCH) was a noted upgrade for #8 CLASSY ACTION when she was entered last week un a turf mile event though was a greater concern in MSW company and finds a better placement today on this circuit in for the MCL tag. The debut around two turns and from the rail can be a tricky combination, though would not discount first time starter #1 ENTICING OPTION in capable hands with steady works and the placement reasonable showing up late in the season for a first start. 

Conditioned claimers kick off the day with a few in here to contend. We will start with 1-MILLARD'S SMILE as he comes off a game win in his last and races back in a similar spot. He may have to rate a bit closer in here as there's not a ton of pace to chase but he should be running on late. 4-TWO COOKIE RULE is one who could settle closer to the front as he has been solid since stretching out three races back. He's hit the board in half of his 30 Hawthorne starts and figures to be a factor late. 6-BANDIT SWANSON also could rate a bit closer as he drops from an open $10k claimer for this spot. He improved in his last and may be looking for a win and a claim in here.

That was a really big effort out of 5-GRAYTANA in her last and she could easily step up and repeat that performance. She has speed but doesn't need the lead as she may choose to stalk and pounce in the lane. 2-DEVIL is one with speed who will likely get sent away in her first career grass start. She just missed at this level on the dirt in her last as the five furlong distance could suit her well. 4-HA HA GLORIA has found the board in all four turf starts as she was able to get a victory in Minnesota in her last. She may be in a similar spot to Graytana early as those two could look to run on late.

Worried a bit about the drop for the ML favorite as I'll hope for an upset in here. 5-BABAS GAL broke through for the maiden score in her last as she has raced better as the year has progressed. She will get some pace to chase and picks up a strong finisher in Mojica in the saddle. 1-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS has some speed but could have company early as well. She chased and ran on late in her last but loses Slevinsky to the ML choice. That horse is 4-ACCELERATING BABE who looks to be the one to beat on paper but also poses a concern as she drops in class off a good second and voided claim in her last. A new venue for her today but is this a dump race?

Although the drop looks bigger on paper off her last two starts, it is only marginal for 3-CHIQUITA REINA from the $10k level where she was claimed three back. She has tactical speed in a race that's lacking pace as she looks to rate close early and draw clear late. 7-ERNESTINA ran a decent race against better around two turns on the dirt three back before shifting to the turf. She is back to the dirt and a sprint as she drops to the bottom to possibly look for a win. 6-QUEEN ANNA T also continues to drop which leaves some concern, but her start two back makes her a major player in here. If she can get away well from the gate, she could potentially make the top and never look back.

There's a lot of pace in this race which could set things up for the closing move of 4-CHROME ATTACK at a price. She has improved in her three turf starts on the meet, all while at a price. I like that she keeps Cohen in the saddle as she could roll by everyone in the lane. 7-MADELYN BELLE rated and ran on late in her last as that could be the move once again. She has won on the lead before but with others to her inside with speed it may burn her out. A repeat of her last race will make her tough to beat. 3-RAMBERT won that last out on the front end as she made the top and battled to the wire. She's been excellent on the turf throughout her career and could get overlooked at the windows once again.

Not much creativity here as the favorites seem to stand out a bit. 2-CAPTAIN'S FLAG was claimed when dropping to this spot in his last as he chased but was outfinished late. With the new connections and second start over the track, look for him to possibly show more speed and try to dictate things on the front end. 6-MALIBU BRAD was the one who ran down Captain's Flag last out as he stalked and closed some late. He should get a similar trip once again and can't be dismissed in here. 8-LARRY'S LUNCHBOX is the other that could be stalking early as he comes back off a slight layoff. The rest could help as he may improve while fresh.

A very competitive bunch in here with what looks to be a good amount of early pace. Going to look on top to 3-GAVEL with the hopes that he can rate back just a bit and rally in the lane. He comes off a bit of a layoff and has run well over the Hawthorne main track. Let's see if that form transitions to the turf. 5-CONGRATS ON FIFTY has speed but showed grit when challenged on the grass three starts back. He will be pressing early and has the potential to emerge clear late. 7-AMERICAN MAYHEM has a lot of back class as he makes just his second start of the year. He's another who has been good on the grass and posted a strong figure in his return race last out.

Close things out on the turf as this maiden bunch has a good amount of early pace. 5-PERFECT MANHATTAN chased in her last and didn't give way until late as she posted a career best figure. If she can avoid hooking up with 2-WW BEST OF TIMES early in here, she could stalk the speed of that one and look to pounce in the stretch. 6-SAFECRACKER SUE has been a consistent fourth in her last four but may be in a spot to improve today. She will benefit if the top two hook up early as she looks to close some ground in the stretch.

1-MILLARD’S SMILE seems most likely. Winner of last was claimed from that race by the top barn and they have a high percentage at claiming like they do at everything else. 6-BANDIT SWANSON drops and adds blinkers. He’s making only his third start of the year. He was trounced in his first start back but noticeably improved in his last. Can show even more at this level. 5-LAND MARK DEAL faces probably the easiest field of his career. He finished third in three of his six races this year and all those efforts were against better. Could provide a mild upset at this level.

5-GRAYTANA jumps into allowance company but she probably deserves the chance after last. She ran away from a decent claiming field full of far more experienced turf runners. She’s only likely to improve from experience. 4-HA HA GLORIA is back from Canterbury where she just broke her maiden. She was here previously and finished second in her two local starts. Plus she also had a second at Santa Anita last year and in Dundalk in Ireland the year before. She’ll be sitting right off the pace. Has a great chance to edge by late, especially if a speed duel develops. 2-DEVIL might be the better of the two Boyce-trained runners in this field. She’s at least the quicker of the two. She’s nearly as quick as top choice. She’ll be making her turf debut but her barn does well with this type runner. 

After narrow losses in her last two in Iowa, it’s hard to get past 4-ACCELERATING BABE. On the other hand, she’s racing for a different barn, she’s making her first start in 10 weeks, and she’s had only two lackluster drills during her time off. Plus, she dropping in class. She looks like the right horse but be careful about betting the rent. 1-SAPPHIRE NIGHTS is another that has been in decent form and she has been running consistently. She managed to finish in the money in four of her nine races this year. Might be a safer wager. 6-HIP HOP EMMY hasn’t shown much this year but her last race was her best yet in 2024.  Might be ready for an improved effort.

3-CHIQUITA REINA drops from maiden specials. She hasn’t shown much since getting claimed for $10,000 at Churchill but she does look superior to her rivals at this level. 7-ERNESTINA seems like the only one capable of giving top pick a run for the money. She’s also dropping many levels. Most of her races have been on turf but she did finish a distant second, going long, in her lone dirt appearance. 6-QUEEN ANNA T is the last of the droppers and she’s might be the quickest of the bunch. She finished far back in two of her three starts but she did finish third, at the $20,000 claiming level, at Churchill two races back.

4-CHROME ATTACK comes off her best race of the year. She narrowly missed in that spot while chasing the rapid pace. The pace of this race could be even faster and even more heated. She might be able to roll by late. 7-MADELYN BELLE is always the one to beat. She’s had 12 career races and came away victorious in seven of them. She’s at least as quick as any of her rivals but is still capable of making a late run if she doesn’t get right to the lead. And she is every bit as good on the main track as she is on the lawn, just in case it rains. Although 2-FRANKEL BABY can come from a bit off the pace, it’s her early speed that makes her especially dangerous in this spot. She wired the field in last. If she gets the jump on them she can do it again.

6-MALIBU BRAD gets the nod. He’s had three races at this level and finished in the money in all of them, second twice. He’s quick enough to get the lead, especially with little other speed in the field. Can take it all the way. 2-CAPTAIN’S FLAG was favored over top choice in last but tired chasing the pace and faded to third. But, that was his first trip on this track. He got claimed from that race. Could make amends for his new barn. 8-LARRY’S LUNCHBOX will occasionally make a decent late move. He finished in the money in five of his eight races this year. There should be plenty of pace for him to run at. Could be the best of the rest.

7-AMERICAN MAYHEM makes his second start of the year and only his third start since 2022. Last seen here in 2022 as the beaten favorite in the Hawthorne Derby, he took 10 months off after that race and returned as a turf sprinter at Ellis. Ran well enough in his two starts there but again went on vacation, this time about 11 months, and returned with a non-threatening effort in a two-turn Ellis race. Now, he’s back here and turning back in distance. He boasts the highest speed figures of any in here but no guarantee how much he has left. Not exactly sure who will get the lead in this speed-filled race but think 8-CODE NAME, who is also loaded with speed, will have that early zip tempered a bit with the turn back in distance. Might finish with something left as the rest of the speed starts running out of gas. 3-GAVEL finished well back in his lone turf start but he had considerable trouble in that event. He’s bred to love the lawn. Although he is plenty quick, others in here might beat him to the punch but think he’ll finish as well as anybody.

8-ROCKET HOTSHOT might be the one most able to take advantage of the extra real estate of this race. He’s always been a strong finisher but seems to be getting stronger with every increase in distance. He’s taking on better here but could be up to the challenge. 2-DOUBLE THUNDER is at the top of his game. He finished out of the money in his first start of the year but he hasn’t finished worse than second in his six races since. Gets in light with the switch to the hot apprentice rider. Could lead throughout. 7-GLOBAL EMPIRE is another bred to get the distance. He was a powerful winner last time out. Like top choice, he’s meeting better but he did win that last with authority.

5-PERFECT MANHATTAN looks tough. She showed a lot of improvement when dropped in for a tag in last and she should show even more with first-time Lasix. 2-DRAMA QUEENIE finished far back in both of her starts but she’s dropping into maiden claimers for the first time and taking blinkers off which could help her to relax in the early going. At this level she could finish with something left. 4-BABE IN THE WOODS has had four races at this level. She finished fifth in two of them but second in the other two. She owns enough speed to stay close throughout.

Race 6:  6 - 7 - 2

Pick 4 Ticket: 2,6,7 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,7 / 3,5   ($36)

Lower-level maidens are not easy to predict, but #6 Malibu Brad (2-1) seems too logical. He’s got enough early speed to put into the game early and is the fastest on paper. Tread lightly on the win end…these are not the most reliable horses running around the oval.

Race 7:  7 - 3 - 5

There’s plenty of early gas in this 5 1/2f turf sprint, so I’ll choose #7 American Mayhem (2-1) to run down the speed. Last time, they tried to stretch him out to 8 ½f and it just didn’t work out. His two previous turf sprints at this distance vs. tougher in Kentucky were very good. 

Race 8:  7 - 2 - 3

Tricky race going the unusual distance of 1 3/16th. Many can win, with not much separating them. I usually wouldn’t go with a horse that beat these last time, but #7 Global Empire (9-2) broke a bit slow and still ran them down. Perhaps the extra distance was the key and will only help the son of American Pharoah out of an A.P. Indy…bred to run all day long. 

Race 9:  3 - 5 - 8

#3 Ww Best of Times (9-2) ran credibly last time into to a VERY hot pace that collapsed late. Although she lost the battle, she might have won the war in the sense than she’s much tighter now and has experience going two turns on the grass. I’m wondering if she’ll be ridden a bit more patiently by Travis Wales. There’s not much to go on in this field….I’m expecting big improvement today.