Handicapper Tips & Picks

Looking at this race (and start of the Place Pick 8) #6 BALI DREAMING becomes a use as one that has some recency, early speed, and consistency. She might not be the “best” in the race but has those other factors on her side along with Emigh the two finishing 1^st and 2^nd together here last season.

#2 KAELY’S SISTER is likely that “best” horse and going out for a live barn and the first start this meet for Loveberry should have some intent, though has the long 552-day layoff into this race. Stablemate #1 VIOLA broke maiden on debut late last season and has remained consistent in terms of figures, though has not shown much improvement. Her consistency could be enough here though could be telling where Loveberry lands.

#4 MALLOY as the morning line favorite also is strong in this group as an individual, though has the pattern of excessive layoff lines. Most over her races to date were contested at the longer distances whether it be route or sprint, something that also carries to #7 INIDICIA. MALLOY fits here and coming back from the 2/14 event last out as part of the BLANKET (B OptixGRADE) finish at the wire under a similar par.

The pattern of layoff lines is the prime concern for #5 SHEZ STUCK UP another that has a level of consistency when right and likely the horse that gets “lost” on the board – #3 KEEPMEINTHE MOMENT has similar layoff lines as a concern and could be shorter of the two and from her ML given the connections and coming into this race “second off” with a strong local record.

#2 RIBALDRY cuts back in distance though holds some competitive sprint races even on the dirt keying off a show finish sprinting 5f back going back to her second career start at Tampa. The live connections ship in where she will find some class relief with a lower par coming in from Turfway that could just move her up naturally.

#5 SWEET NELLIE should also move up naturally with the return to Hawthorne and off some subtle trips at Oaklawn and less than ideal TACTIC- (uncomfortable behind horses) last month from Gallardo as he looks to improve on that here. They should show early speed something that could make it tougher on #4 LUNARCHY.  

#3 HALLIE’S RAINBOW also has early speed and could be the speed of the speed and skip clear if the other two try and rate. She can be tough on the front end, could be back to top form for Mosier and comes in with some steady works back to a level where she can compete. She closed out her year on 11/18 closing day of the FD meet and common race with #6 ZENCHUA SKY one that came flying late with a huge CLOSE after a poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and that strong late kick could have her rally for a share here. #7 NIFF was an also ran in that race and while she has some form here from prior seasons, she lost her form after leaving the Vanden Berg barn on 3/23 and that is the challenge coming back this year and looking to reset for Zawitz. 

Trainer Dee Poulos has started out the meet live picking up a win with Baladine on Sunday and a huge late closing run with Dynablue, one that finished 4^th, just off the board, though a massive competitive run – the barn has two in this race and keying off the pair to take a stand in this tricky leg. #8 LUCKY SHOT is one they thought highly of early on trying a pair of stakes races in KY as a juvenile and protected most of his career. He found this level and the sprint distance last year on the main with consistency and should find similar here. Many of his competitive races were with Mojica in the saddle and he jumps to stablemate #6 PINBALLER here, though the barn uses all different riders. PINBALLER returns from the layoff and the last time he came off the layoff he won back in 12/22 though did have a slight set up. He has competitive sprint form and with some wins last summer though also with some favorable trips. 

#2 GOLDEN HORNET has the license to rebound as he makes his second start back off the layoff. Going back to 3/3 at Oaklawn Park he might have lost his race in the GATE, very fractious and did not get away all that well before a RUSH to the lead and PRESSED on a Fast early pace. The race was a strong race as they went Fast early and Very Fast late, the winner a good runner called Happy is a Choice making a midpack stalking run for the win. They have run well here and with Loveberry aboard, though the connections are willing to take as risk to run for the claiming tag today, perhaps a calculated move that would open up some starter allowance options should their not be any $40k takers.

From a pace standpoint, GOLDEN HORNET has legit early speed, though there are others in this field that can keep him honest and might include #7 FEVER NATION from the outside and #4 TILTED TOWERS, the other in the field racing for the $40k tag. The post position for #1 COMISKEY PARK given the rail draw might also have them without too many options from the rail given the 5f distance and complexion of the field.

COMISKEY PARK is one of two for A. Hernandez/Donato in this race and one that is capable here and at this level though needs the right trip from the inside, a change coming back on this circuit. A stalking trip could fall to stablemate #5 CORTESE one that has some early speed to put himself in the race though from the outside can allow J. Felix options and look for the right type of scenario, something along the lines of the 8/30 trip and win.

#6 LOOKIN FOR BALA got the better of CORTEST on 7/20 though a different portion of their cycle as they had a few starts and could be necessary coming back today to get that race under their belt though a sapid consistent racehorse that has only off the board in that lone return start last May. #3 SHACKLEFORD STRONG is also a tough race horses and coming back to Hawthorne from Oaklawn where they have kept their form and recent win. They are in top form and makes sense the connections take the class rise, though is still a test to hold their form, though certainly can be enticed to keep on the radar at the suggested double digit odds. 

This race starts with #3 ROBUST coming back from a win and strong figure last week. On repeat he can be tough. The question is can he compete as he has does seem to prefer more time between starts and has had to work hard in those two most recent races. In terms of trip, he does not need the lead and moving off the inside could allow for options though on the lead could find company or give up his edge on the front end something that rival #8 WEST ISLAND could capitalize on.

Playing the scenario the two cancel each other out that opens up the race for some chaos. That being the main opinion tough to make any knocks on the others in the field especially those at prices though will upgrade #6 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN. He will wheel back to make his second start of the meet and a subtle change in class. They raced in the $12.5k level though were actually in the race for the higher $18.8k tag using the statebred rule to run for .5x plus the claiming tag when in against open. They will utilize the same play here racing for the higher $7.5k tag to suggest some intent as they drop, but not quite drop in for $5k. 

#5 RIGHT ON RICHIE could be the speed of the speed (Q1) in this race. He is placed where he can compete and as an IL -bred will race for the higher $7.5k tag in this event. Trainer G. Butler is looking for their first win this meet (at the time of this analysis) though have been knocking on the door sending out live and picking up checks with two place finishes on opening day and the 5^th place finishing Dragonfly Kisses on Sunday, though appeared intent for that one as they did open with a ton of early money as the betting favorite before drifting to 6-1; all three piloted by A. Bendezu.

#4 PERFECT WAGER has some recency as he makes his return to Hawthorne and hold form over this course and two turn distance. He will find a subtle change in class from the more recent MVR races against open company where he has held his form and from a figure stand point. Keying off those route races, he has enough tactical speed to put himself in the race though not enough to run or try to run with RIGHT ON RICHIE whereas some others might including #1 UNIFIED WEEKEND assigned the ML favorite role.

A contentious pace could assist horses from off the pace and tougher to support #8 TONALTALITARIAN coming off the long, long 518-day layoff whereas #7 NOBLE PURSUIT holds the edge on recency and while his current stronger form has been on the turf/synth (similar for #2 SON OF GRACE) he is capable on the dirt at the right level and kept at the preferred route distance. 

The two Boyce runners could hold an edge in this field and the edge over the experiences runners and older runners (that could open a door if any) they will take on for the first time. The two showed up in a common race last November at FD, the Debutante stakes where #2 BEEHIVE was favored and the other, other Boyce runner Rumbrandt picked up the win at 5-1 and one we will see later on in the finale. The race shape BUNCHED early assisted Rumbrandt with a tracking trip with both #2 BEEHIVE and #5 DEVIL on the pace contested between horses. The three Boyce runners finished together at the wire DEVIL showed some GRIT late making her stablemate work for the win.

#3 CHERYL’S APPEAL is the lone FTS and can be dangerous for capable, live connections though also likely to get attention for those connections. She does hold a pair of local works, though not as quick as the barn can often work horses, so we shall see.

In terms of the older runners, #7 TU ROYAL could have the edge of the group and with experience on this circuit and a level of consistency that has not quite been enough for the top spot in the past though could make for a better fit here today.

#7 BROKEN HEARTS BAY has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and should be sitting on a peak effort in this third start of the cycle. She turned in a competitive effort off the bench in February at DeD and wheels right back for a higher level allowance at FG on 3/3 – that race was won by a front runners that cleared early and there was minimal change in running order with BROKEN HEARTS BAY chasing WIDE and showed some interest despite the runline and outcome. The shorter 5f distance could be a hurdle and something she will require those other factors to overcome.

#3 HAPPY WORLD turned in an eye-catching debut effort and will look to change things up to return to the winners circle on this circuit. Number wise she has held her form since though has been in against tougher allowance sophomores with a higher purse and/or par. That includes the 2/21 event at Turfway a race that has produced two next out winners, one of those Rietta (M. Boyce) winning here last Sunday and the race won by a filly called Trial that has the “foundation” at two turns last seen in the Bourbonette Oaks though one that is a stronger one-turn type. She has a look in here with upside at a price though will be tested making the surface switch and taking on older for the first time.

#4 SHE’S INTHEARMYNOW could present as the speed of the speed looking to get back on track on this circuit for live connections. She also exits the TP meet and while she was in the claiming class on 2/7 that race was against older and coming off the layoff did not appear race ready on the day. It is encouraging she has been given some time, works and the connections returning here to race protected.

#8 ANGEL EXPRESS will require a top effort and improvement as she returns as a 4yo. She will make her first start of the year off the 191-day break and going back to last season improved with racing; arguably her best effort off the year was the allowance show finish at HS Indy taking on winners for the first time and in a competitive group on the day.