Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 ALLOTROPE figures the horse to beat and should be the “speed of the speed” in this compact field. With that said, she does not take up a “lone” role as there are others in here to keep her honest up front including her stablemate, #7 RUN BAMBI RUN a lightly raced 4yo that will take the drop in class in terms of par and purse, a subtle class change. #5 SAPPHIRE NIGHTS also has shown early speed and that is where she has been more effective. Perhaps she returns to those ways in this field, though Navas must be more assertive today than in the FG races last month – today’s event is a lower par than those two starts including the 2/12 race against 3yo only..

#4 ALEXANDRA’S SONG has shown early speed though arguably her better races are when stalking to take over late. She has further hurdles as she has the pattern of layoff lines and will take on older today for the first time, though some relief as she makes the circuit switch. #3 MISS TENA MARIE is also showing up to take on older though could present upside. All of her races were last year as a juvenile and could project improvement off those efforts and figures. She drops to the straight claiming level for the first time, a move that is more reasonable as she was doing her best last year and not quite to the level of competition.

#1 SEQUAYA does not hold any edge in this field though one that can pick up a share. The shorter 5f is not her ideal though she is one that tends to run her race regardless of the conditions and just depends if that effort is good enough against her competition on the day. There could be some intent with R. Blanche back aboard, a rider that was up for a place finish last season. 

#1 DESERT HIGHWAY appears well intended with the quick turnaround and stretching out in distance. Most of their races to date have been contested around two turns and even off the strong place finish and figure last out they could hold form and compete here once again.

Number wise DESERT HIGHWAY requires running back to a top effort with #4 ROUNDER in the field. He is not as consistent on the win end and recent layoff lines, though has turned in figures on the regular that fit on par. He shas some upside from the 1/31 race (though preferred a quicker return) given the poor (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) start.

#5 IZEONDEC has the consistency from the FG races and fits at this level. Number wise he does not have the strong edge over the two though can return to a top effort today noting a compromised start (TROUBLES+) and chasing a Vert Slow pace early and late (minimal change in running order) unable to get into the running (near excuse) in the most recent start. 

The connections were probably expecting a claim on #3 LILY’S WOOFY last week and after making an EASY_LEAD and easy work of the field wheel right back here with the class rise. She does have that hurdle with the step up and timing, though has been a consistent type and coming back with the edge on recency could also work in her favor here through is not the layup she was last Saturday.

#5 STACK SHACK probably would prefer a bit more ground though should have some price compensation with the trainer change back to Cook returning to Hawthorne, a course she has run well over in the past. She could present the higher number to #4 JOLIE RULER one that also has a solid local record though also probably would appreciate a little more ground though and does return from the layoff. Colon aboard could be taken as a positive and similar with a front wrap removal. #1 MIDNIGHT’S GIRL might wind up the betting alternative and certainly capable. The biggest knock imp is the rail draw as one that appears to prefer stalking outside horses and has not been as effective in the three rail starts, albeit running against tougher, in the past. 

Looking at the complexion of this field, there are many that prefer to race on or near the lead and those runners stacked to the inside part of the field. That could set up a trip for #5 GO STORMIN GIRL, one that ran big races last year and was probably the most unlucky horse of the meet including a controversial DQ last June. That race in June had Emigh in the saddle and his presence is noted here. In addition, most of her races last year were contested at a higher level on this circuit and the shift back to this circuit with that change could further intent.

#7 AUNT STELLA could be upgraded as she wheels right back for this second start of the meet. Going into the race last Saturday she had a big hurdle with Lily’s Woofy in the field and did not appear much intent from the public at nearly 50-1 and for the connections coming off the layoff with the front wraps added. From the outside post she should be fit coming back making a WIDE RUSH for position and holding in a blanket for minors behind the pacesetting, open length winning Lily’s Woofy. 

It might be tougher to find which horse can’t win this race than which one can as this event is open and a case can be made for many in this field. There could be intent for at least one of the two Ralph Martinez runners in this field. #4 MEDAL OF FACT  brings in a solid local record and races at the shorter sprint distance. He has been entered though scratched out of a few higher-than-today claiming events at TP since the claim last October. They will give up recent though could be a positive with R. Arrieta back aboard, a rider that has familiarity and success with this horse in the pace. #2 BOISE has some back class with a stakes win and placement in his juvenile campaign. He did not quite develop to remain at that level, though has held his form and numbers that fit reasonably with where he has been placed as of late. 

Another tougher race with many capable types though will try to get creative with #8 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR one that remains with trainer J. Berndt after the dispersal and a positive returning here protected for the first start since that change. This horse has run well fresh breaking his maiden first out at GP at the 5.5f distance at the time for trainer I. Wilkes, something the barn is not known for especially. He was DQ’d as the unofficial winner coming off the layoff here on 7/13. A race at the higher $25k claiming level. He might not be the “best” in the race though could be intent and based on the ML should offer value.

 On current form and figures, #7 CASH FEVER is a major player and would not be surprised to see this one favored. He has run consistent figures and in terms of class is coming out of higher level allowance races at the FG than rival #9 TWIRLING ROSES from the claiming events. With that said, CASH FEVER will be tested to hold and transfer his form to this circuit. It should be noted that he was entered and a vet scratch from a $30k N2L claiming event on 3/20 at the FG though does not appear anything significant as he turned in a 4f breeze here on 3/23.

#5 ELI’S PROMISE can run a big race from time to time though his not always consistent with that big effort. He dominated (B+) an higher OC N2X field here last June, a race at a similar purse and even slightly higher race par. He has some upside with the freshening and flow upgrade from the 12/8 OP opening day effort. Tough to see today’s event being the time and place for #1 RIVZONAROLL coming back on this circuit and at the allowance level where he has come up short in the past and would look elsewhere at the ML or anything shorter.

#5 GLOBAL EMPIRE is worth getting creative with as long as he stays in the double digit range. He has some competitive races at the level last year has been able to fit fresh off the layoff and some of his better, more competitive efforts have been paired with E. Giles including a pair of 2023 wins.

#7 ROGUE ELEMENT is another to make a value case for. He has some back class and figures and one that comes into this race with form from the TP meet and the connections racing here for a tag though still a positive change claimed for $8k in January and does not take any suspicious drop with a live rider in Hernandez aboard.

#4 KNIGHT’S CROSS is not the most exciting at the ML though makes sense and for the connections is a clever spot to run this one where he can compete and remain protected at the sale time.  He has some form and recency on his side that fit and main track form as well something that could be an edge over some others that could be using today’s race as conditioning.

#2 SUPER WISE could come down from his ML for connections that often send out live runners and this one brings in current form that fits here and off a strong place finish earlier this month. They are able to race here protected, nothing to lose if they end up making the shift back to turf. #11 DAVIDIC LINE could be the controlling speed, though from the outside he has that hurdle and that being the prime knock at an expected shorter number. The odds are also factored for #9 C F V WICKED RED as he makes his very belated return from the 424-day layoff, though certainly capable of turning in a competitive race if ready to show up with a top effort. 

#5 SUPER CHRISTIE could be a live longshot in here and one to play at the longer odds. While she has plenty of question marks and many factors to knock. She has shown run in spots, often first-off and numbers that fit on par. She is a five-year-old mare that has had the setbacks and appears the type that must come running off the bench and this is that time.

#3 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE could step up on this circuit remaining at the MSW level, a slight change from those FG events and higher purse. She has some upside off the first two starts with the tough group and messy break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) on debut and chasing and bet down from her second start could be given a flow upgrade with the winner from off the pace and place finisher with a tracking trip.

#11 ALDORA also will be tested to take on older though has improved race to race. She will make her second start of the season and exiting a very live race on 1/3, a race that produced four next out winners, fillies that improved their figures in the process.

First time starter #6 DI’S SURPRISE will make her debut and for capable connections. She was stabled over the winter at the FG working steadily and with J. Loveberry aboard. Going back to December she worked with stablemate Foxxy Cleopatra, second best working to stay heads up with that filly one that won her debut last June at PID and came back to improve and win again against AOC company last Month at the FG. Morey will also capable with debuting runners will show up with first time starter #10 BEAUTY OF THE NILE, a 4yo making her belated debut and should have no excuses on fitness with the steady worktab coming in from Tampa.