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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat March 30th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Malloy - 9-5 2 Kaely's Sister - 7-2 7 Indicia - 8-1

A nice allowance field kicks off the Easter weekend of racing. Went to the talented 4-MALLOY on top for Catalano as she comes in from Kentucky for this start. She has tactical speed and comes off a solid sprint effort at Turfway last out. It looks like there's pace to chase which should set it up nicely for her run. 2-KAELY'S SISTER is one with speed as she returns off a lengthy layoff. She spent the winter training in New Orleans before heading to Oaklawn and then Hawthorne. She may need a race but this is a barn that always has them ready off the bench. 7-INDICIA is another that should be fit as she returns from Gulfstream today. She will also benefit from the pace ahead of her as this barn grabbed a winner last week with a runner who closed well late. Let's see if this is enough distance to close into.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Hallie's Rainbow - 6-1 5 Sweet Nellie - 9-5 2 Ribaldry (IRE) - 2-1

Any horse can win this race and any can run last. Hoping pace makes the race as I gave the nod to 3-HALLIE'S RAINBOW. She has three works toward the return and doesn't appear to face any pace pressure early. Look for her to shake loose and never look back. 5-SWEET NELLIE is a tough one to figure out as she had faced much tougher last summer with mixed results and  now drops to a level where she can win. The tough thing to figure is if she's in a spot to win or a spot to get claimed? Or both. 2-RIBALDRY (IRE) comes in from Kentucky as well for a barn that has run some here in the past.  She seems to want to run longer but did finish third in her only start at this distance.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Strange Arrange - 5-2 2 Fastnfurious - 15-1 8 Lucky Shot - 4-1

Went back to this race three different times as it was another very difficult race on the card. Ended up with 3-STRANGE ARRANGE based on the combination of connections and running style. Trainer Jim Watkins had an excellent meet here last year and comes in with another string of horses. He spots them well and this one has the style to possibly apply pressure from just off the flank of the likely speed. That speed looks to come from 2-FASTNFURIOUS, as he looks to get back on track after tailing off to close out 2023. He has worked well toward his return and was just in too tough in the final start of 2023 as he looks to get one last start in. Expect him to try to steal this one on the front end. 8-LUCKY SHOT is one of a pair in here from the Poulos barn as their runners got off to a good start last weekend. She has three works leading toward her return and all of her career success has come over this surface.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 4:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Comiskey Park - 6-1 2 Golden Hornet - 7-5 4 Tilted Towers - 7-2

There are some very talented sprinters in this spot as the pace upfront looks to swift and likely contested. I'm not sure if he's to the level of these, but 1-COMISKEY PARK has seeming figured things out after a long string of runner-up efforts over this track. He won a fair of races at Fairmount last summer before heading to Keenland for an upset score. He made one start in New Orleans over the winter but a wide trip behind a very fast pace left him with too much to do. He draws inside today and should be able to save ground behind the contested pace the entire way. 2-GOLDEN HORNET has speed to burn and is talented as well. He ran a big race at this level last April before 11 months away from the races. Surely he needed his last at Oaklawn as he figures to run much better today. 4 -TILTED TOWERS ran a big race here last spring as he has speed but I expect others in here are faster early. That may be beneficial though as much like Comiskey Park, a stalking trip could be a winning trip.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Robust - 5-2 4 Modazzle - 7-2 8 West Island - 2-1

Conditioned claimers we look to possibly get our first two time winner of the meet. 3-ROBUST ran a big race last week as he was pushed every step of the way and emerged clear late. There are a couple of others with speed in here but he doesn't need the lead to win. Expect this barn to have a huge meet. 4-MODAZZLE likely needed his last as he drops to a spot where he can win. If he can get a contested pace ahead of him it will benefit his chances to run by late. Let's see what kind of pressure is ahead of him today. 8-WEST ISLAND makes his first start over the track as he was able to get a work over the track after his Turfway start in January. He's another with speed but may not be as quick early as Robust.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Right On Richie - 3-1 1 Unified Weekend - 8-5 8 Tonaltalitarian - 5-1

It has been good to see some two turn races early in the meet as we have seen some larger payouts as well. There isn't much pace in this race which should benefit the chances of 5-RIGHT ON RICHIE. He posted a pair of wins last August and September in front running style before tailing off a bit to close the season. He comes back with a couple of works and gets a positive change in the saddle. 1-UNIFIED WEEKEND spent the winter in Florida as he was claimed two starts back for $10,000. After making one start, where he posted a solid figure, he drops in for the $5,000 tag in here. A win and a claim makes it worthwhile. 8-TONALTALITARIAN comes back off a lengthy layoff with just the one work toward the return. He's likely to need a race but there's potential that he picks off some horses late.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Beehive - 4-5 5 Devil - 5-1 3 Cheryl's Appeal - 7-2

State-bred maidens as the Boyce runners could easily run 1-2 in this spot. Both 2-BEEHIVE and 5-DEVIL gets Lasix for the first time as they shift to their three-year-old seasons. Beehive gets the nod off consistency as she has tactical speed and this race doesn't have a ton of pace. She has a couple of works toward the return as she figures to take a good amount of action. 5-DEVIL has a similar running style as she gets back to the conventional dirt surface. Her two starts at Hawthorne were solid and I expect she could benefit more that Beehive with the Lasix addition. 3-CHERYL'S APPEAL makes her debut as she gets Lasix for this spot. The works have been mixed but this barn often has them ready at first asking.