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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun March 31st, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Allotrope - 8/5 4 Alexandra's Song - 7/2 1 Sequaya - 6/1

Conditioned claimers open the day in a race where there is a bit of early pace. Gave the nod to 2-ALLOTROPE as I feel she has enough tactical speed to win if she makes the top but can also stalk if another outbreaks her. She comes off a good effort at Delta in her last and battled every step while running a 16th further in that spot. Look for her to rate close early and contend the entire way. 4-ALEXANDRA'S SONG comes in from Florida as she races with Lasix for the second start. This post draw looks to be beneficial as she didn't see to take well to the inside when pressed last out. She has speed and may beat Allotrope to the top. 1-SEQUAYA is that odd horse that always seems to have the ability to run late for a piece but never wins. She has just the one career victory from 43 lifetime starts but backs that up with 13 runner-up efforts. I expect she settles back early here and runs on late in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Izeondec - 8/5 1 Desert Highway - 6/1 4 Rounder - 5/2

Route runners in a race lacking much along the lines of pace. 5-IZEONDEC looks to be the one who could coast to the lead and set soft fractions. The concern here is he has just the one win from 24 lifetime starts but that came at this distance and was a 23 length win in December of 2022. 1-DESERT HIGHWAY has run well in his last couple and closed at a distance that wasn't his best last out. I expect he rates a bit closer early as well and is worth a look if near the 6-1 morning line. 4-ROUNDER comes in from Kentucky for this start as he gets back on the conventional dirt surface. He has tactical speed but much like Izeondec he rarely wins. The 12 2nd and 3rd place efforts over his career put him in the mix but we will see if he can get over the hump.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Lily's Woofy - 2/1 1 Midnight's Girl - 4/1 5 Stack Shack - 9/2

Despite the quick return, the spotting for 3-LILY'S WOOFY looks to be perfect as she comes off a solid score here last week. In that spot she was never really asked as she coasted under the wire for her victory. She may be pushed a bit more but I expect she's ready as the connections again run for the higher claim price, making her eligible for the Illinois bonus. 1-MIDNIGHT'S GIRL has speed as she will likely try to steal a race from the rail. I think she can beat Lily's Woofy to the top and the 5 furlong distance benefits her. Let's see if she is ready off the single work coming into here. 5-STACK SHACK has had success over this track and at numerous distances. She was a game third in her last out in New Orleans and comes into here with three workouts off that start. I expect she stalks the pace here early and contends late.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 4:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Helen Mae's Song - 3/1 3 Loona Luv - 7/2 2 Tap N Twine - 10/1

The return to dirt is the difference here for 1-HELEN MAE'S SONG as her last two on the polytrack were disappointing. She is better on conventional dirt as has the ability to rate and run on in the lane. With Cookin Roses likely to carve out the early fractions, I expect the stalking trip is a winning trip. 3-LOONA LUV is another that will come from a bit off the pace as she was running well in Indiana to close out the year last year. Her last in Kentucky was decent as she may be a step behind Helen Mae's Song and chasing her through the lane. 2-TAP N TWINE will be closing from further back but merits a look at a price. Blanche has been riding well to open the meet and I expect if he can save ground with her here that she could pick off numerous horses late.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Kingswood - 9/2 4 Medal of Fact - 6/1 6 Time Heist - 5/2

Good, competitive race here with numerous in with a shot. Like the price potential with 5-KINGSWOOD as he draws better off a tough trip where he was very wide in his last. His starts two and three back were solid as this morning is off to a good start as well. 4-MEDAL OF FACT was claimed last October and has been working consistently toward his return. He gets his best surface here today and should rate just off the early pace. 6-TIME HEIST won here last April and was claimed but that claim was voided. He came back to win a couple of starts following that claim and has three drills since the New Year. He should contend the entire way.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
9 C F V Wicked Red - 6/1 4 Knight's Cross - 7/2 11 Davidic Line - 4/1

Only a couple in here with early speed and those are the morning line and second choice in the race. They very easily could run 1-2 around the track the entire way but I worry that they hook up and burn one another out. If that occurs, it could set things up for 9-C F V WICKED RED to rate back early and rally in the lane. He ran a pair of solid races here late in 2022 before making a start early in 2023. He has time away from the track but has worked consistently toward the return for a barn that tends to have them ready off the bench. 4-KNIGHT'S CROSS is the inside of the speed as he is the second Van Berg runner entered on the card. He was masterful at 1 1/4 miles at Mountaineer in the fall and just missed at this distance in New Orleans two back. Loveberry rode that day and is back in the saddle once again. 11-DAVIDIC LINE is another with speed who has been in solid form over his last five starts. He may have to work a bit from the outside for early position but without much speed to his inside, there's potential he crosses over quickly and finds position into the first turn.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 6:20 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Absolute Miracle - 10/1 6 Di's Surprise - 9/2 7 Bernar Mosa - 5/1

An insanely tough maiden races closes the Easter Sunday card as this is a very evenly matched bunch. Looking for a price with 3-ABSOLUTE MIRACLE as she makes her third career start off an improved effort last out. She looks to have enough early speed to get into contention from the gate but also appears to not need the lead. She has a pair of solid drills since her last start and draws favorably in here. 6-DI'S SURPRISE debuts for Rivelli as she has a nice pattern of drills coming into here. She posted a bullet work on March 7 and gets Lasix. Expect to see blinkers on her as speed from the gate is very likely. 7-BERNAR MOSA comes in from Kentucky for Mike Maker as she shortens back up to a sprint today. He race two back was better than looks on paper and finding a slightly easier spot should help her chances.