Handicapper Tips & Picks

The Sun Contention and higher 63 SpeedRate presents a hurdle/vulnerabilities on #6 NITROGEN as the projected (heavy) favorite in this spot. By contrast, that pace dynamic upgrades #1 AL JAFARA Q4 Square while showing confidence following B+ OptixGRADE in the 4/12 KEE allowance to step up to graded stakes company. 

Keying off the common races, the BC Juvenile Turf (G1) #9 NOBLE CONFESSOR (value) a maiden at the time recorded a B- OptixGRADE despite the 6th place outcome while racing inside/SAVED TRAFFIC; a higher OptixGRADE than ML favorite #1 ZULU KINGDOM (C+) as part of the DUEL (between horses) on the day. The two also from the Pilgrim (G2) a race won by ZULU KINGDOM though earning the same B OptixGRADE as NOBLE CONFESSOR one that had trip adversity that according to the OptixNOTES might have cost them the win on the day. 

While #9 FAR BRIDGE has valid credentials on class and speed figures, the distance change in noted here as it has been in the past and for a horse that following the Manhattan (G1) last year found their top form at the longer marathon turf distance races. That opens the door to others including stablemate #4 CARSON'S RUN one that holds the win at this course/distance with Saratoga Derby Invitational (G1) win last summer. The can be upgraded in their form cycle second off and making a MOVE GALLOP+ with the STRETCH projection out of the Fort Marcy (G2) last month. 

#2 INTERGRATION also fits with G1 form and competitive races in this form cycle. They projected to move up with the STRETCH from the Makers' Mile (G10 in April and did so despite a tough trip (B- /TACTIC- TRAFFIC ROOM) in the Turf Classic (G1) and back with F. Prat, the win rider the from Red Smith (G2) closing out 2024. 

#1 HILL ROAD recorded a speed figure in their B-/BTL effort in the BC Juvenile (G1) in line with the big three main rivals out of the KY Derby (G1) to respect in this race. Their return in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) was first off the layoff showing run against the dynamic and primarily out past the wire with a solid GALLOP+ - a sign of stamina to carry here with the STRETCH out in distance. That comes second off and from a solid effort in the Peter Pan (G3) showing gears as they had to briefly start-and-stop before moving into the clear and on their left/NO_LEAD taking over from the pacesetting place and show runners. Not only did they make up ground to CLOSE for the win and show class, they were the only horse to make up ground. They draw the rail (has raced behind horses each time stateside with no problem), find another rider change (in more than capable hands with I. Ortiz) and not one of those being knocks and will only further hold value given the attention on the other names in this race.