« 05/17/2025 | 05/19/2025 » |
Sun May 18th, 2025 |
Download as PDF |
Peter's Simulcast Plays
Gulfstream Park Race 1
Post Time 11:50 AM CST
Gulfstream Park Race 2
Post Time 12:22 PM CST
Gulfstream Park Race 3
Post Time 12:54 PM CST
Gulfstream Park Race 4
Post Time 1:27 PM CST
Gulfstream Park Race 5
Post Time 1:59 PM CST
Gulfstream Park Race 6
Post Time 2:31 PM CST
Gulfstream Park Race 7
Post Time 3:04 PM CST
Gulfstream Park Race 8
Post Time 3:36 PM CST
Gulfstream Park Race 9
Post Time 4:09 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 1
Post Time 6:00 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 2
Post Time 6:25 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 3
Post Time 6:50 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 4
Post Time 7:15 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 5
Post Time 7:40 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 6
Post Time 8:05 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 7
Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 8
Post Time 8:55 PM CST
Sun May 18th, 2025 |
Download as PDF |
Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:40 PM CST
#3 GUNNY SACK patient for this spot to debut in statebred
company on the turf and from an open MSW race last Sunday. S. Gonzales/F. Kirby
are a perfect 1-for-1 pairing up (since 2020) with Rainy Mountain this season
coming off the layoff earlier this meet and overall with FTS the barn 2/16 (25%
ITM) though the sample overall recording speed figures on par for today’s level
and field. That stat noted as it carries to #6 DRIPPING SPRINGS one that does have
a gap in the published series from mid-April to early May whereas GUNNY SACK
has a more consistent pattern. F. Reyes has had some live mounts for this barn
and in MSW company last year primarily with a runner called Laly, showing early
speed with that runner and similar could be projected here.
The lack of early speed is noted for many of the established
runners including #1 MISSED OPTION one that fits with current form and figures
and should handle the turf while holding fitness cutting back from the route
and extended sprint distances. #5 LONE RETURN has shown route speed though also
with current form wheeling right back and a rider change with S. Gonzalez elsewhere;
which also carries to #4 GOOD YEGG and #7 HOLDEN MICHAEL making a belated
return to the TURF though a step up in class for this surface switch. #2 JAKES
CHANNEL also has shown more route speed and while some of their higher figures
have been recorded on the turf those number still sit on the lower end of today’s
par.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:05 PM CST
#1 GLOBAL EMPIRE brings in current form and
conditioning for this third start off the layoff to move up from the recent
finishing positions. They find some further changes in terms of race shape, the
shift to a Fire, higher SpeedRate should assist their runstyle. Trip could also
be assisted with the rider change to A. Santos, the rider aboard for the two
wins in as many starts last year.
That race shape is noted for #4 CHAOS REIGNS in this spot
and as the projected favorite. They are valid in that role as an individual
though expect to find pace pressure with others in this field including #2
EUCLID AVENUE expecting to be more forward today, a change from two weeks ago
when not asked for early speed. While #3 DOUBLE THUNDER and #5 LAVENDER EARL
also can show early speed, the outside draw could also move #6 CATEGORY TEN
into the first flight. They are not a need the lead type and hold runstyle
versatility (something shown on the Plot and Grid) though often effective when
on or near the lead.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:30 PM CST
Like in the opener, S. Gonzalez might have had some options
and sticking with #2 DIXIE PENNY in this race. While coming off a win, this is
a step up in class though could be a confident move with progressive form this
season, racing in a spot where they can run protected and even though this is a
rise in par from the recent starts going back to last year she has been able to
compete under similar par with the starter races last spring at Oaklawn.
DIXIE PENNY has tactical speed though not a need the lead
type, something key for today’s race shape with four of the seven runners sharing
the EP runstyle and showing a “bunched” up Q1/3 where trip appears key to
outcome and finds the in-form #6 LADY HELENA looking for that same tracking
trip with finishing ability. With a clean break #4 DIAMONDS JOY one that can be
not as winning to pass horses pushing the pacesetters #1 SHE’S INTHEARMYNOW and
#3 DELIZIOSA.
The bunched up scenario could assist #7 RAINY MOUNTAIN to pick
up horses late, something of a tougher task looking at the Plot position further
away from the others deep in Q4 though running on late. #5 ECHO DREAMER not a
need the lead type as positioned in Q2 though above the ParLine should play a
role in keeping the early pace honest.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 3:55 PM CST
#3 BRIT BLITZ will give up recency though a look back under
similar conditions picking up where they left off last year with the BTL effort
over those course and distance in October. The trip (TATIC_ SAVED ROOM) played
a role in the outcome to their credit still picking up the show award and B-
OptixGRADE. As far as the lack of recency, the barn has had overall success
with layoff runners with I. Hernandez aboard ($26% win, 68% ITM with positive $.16
ROI - numbers that are almost identical
off 100+ day layoff on the turf) and this season two of those wins albeit on
the main track sprinting with Shake Up and Papa’s Nico Boy.
Their stablemate #5 COMMISSIONER OSCAR can be upgraded in
this second start of the season in what appeared a PREP in the 4/13 return
given a WIDE trip and NO_PUSH handling playing a role in the outcome and figure
where they might not have had intent on the day with their stablemate, Caught Off
Guard finishing show at slightly shorter 10-1 odds of the two and flattered
with Runaway Charlie coming back from their place finish to win an allowance
(5/1) next out.
#2 REMEMBER THE FEAR will make a TURF debut in this spot, a
surface they should handle based on their physicality. They will also make the
class drop and circuit switch while still on a quicker turnaround once again,
though number wise the races this season all consistent figure to fit with the others
in this field. That includes the overall body of work for #7 PROFESSOR HIGGINGS
bringing in current form stretching back out on the turf, their preferred surface/distance.
#8 SHTARKER unlike the other two on shorter rest returns for
a seasonal debut and off the 224-day layoff. They bring in upside from the
sophomore season, surface/distance local experience. They also showed
improvement race to race to support upside coming back in the first start of
the 4yo season.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:21 PM CST
The Third Chance Stakes is open beyond IL-bred fillies and
mares though does not discount those statebred runners. #3 OEUVRE still holds
status as the one to beat holding the title in this race the last two seasons
with dominant B+ efforts in each. Today’s par is higher in part to the open
eligibility though that is not a “new” for her holding her own in open company
stakes outside of this circuit and under a par and purse in line with today as
well.
Fellow IL-Bred #5 BEEHIVE draws well for today’s race and
race shape with her ability to track the pace without needing the lead (trip
that could be required for others) and has confidence under regular rider A.
Centeno. Number wise she is lighter than others and must she can stack up on
that front, though class is there and same with maturity where a new top effort
is not out of the question with today’s race just the second start of the cycle
and of the 4yo season.
One only has to look as far as stablemate #2 PURR SEA to see
how the M. Boyce runners can hold form and progress in the speed figure
department. She also has the runstyle versatility, class and confidence with A.
Santos the two a near perfect record with the three open length wins together
in 2024 and photo outcome in the allowance last month at FP – that finish
together with #6 SHARP HERO making her layoff return on the day and should
appreciate the race and slight addition of ground while looking to hold her
form back at Hawthorne.
The early pace should be contested with #1 MANAGING MISCHIEF
along the inside and #4 GRAY LIGHTNING bringing in early speed where she is her
best (and dangerous) on the lead with field high speed figures recorded last
year as a sophomore at PRX that make her a threat on repeat. #7 YAMILE’S comes
into this race lighter on speed figures where a contender case is tough to make
on that front, though could come running late and pick up horses, she has
ability in her own right though a tougher spot for her on the win end.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 4:47 PM CST
#5 JOURNEYIST must run for the tag today to compete in this
spot though does opt to run for the higher $30k as allowed. She fits on class
and speed figures going back to the races from 2023 and even 2024 when looking
for the turf and despite picking up the win held her form in tougher spot. She
lands here where she fits and back with L. Colon, a rider that had success aboard
in the past to suggest intent here.
Class is a lateral move for #6 ATMIDNIGHT coming back to
Hawthorne for the first time since last summer when also looking for the grass
and still a competitive effort on the day noting the SLOG/TROUBLE_S and strong
CLOSE for show. Today’s par is slightly lighter for #3 WHAT’S TO DO from the 4/25
OP event though a rise from the prior starts including the race par from
the two turf races over this course last
year.
Class is noted for that pair as the edge where as others in
this field take the rise in class while other positives in the case of #2 LOTTA
ROSES and #4 APRIL’S GEM with a positive STRETCH in distance while returning
to the turf for this event. Class is
subtle relief from prior turf starts for #8 EXCELERINA however current form is
a bigger question mark based on the recent races.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:13 PM CST
Looking at Standard (and projected value) #8 ALYANAABI
has a pace scenario as a potential advantage on the front end to take this
group gate-to-wire. They will make a very belated return to the route distance though
going back to those route races from 2023 speed figures and class stack up on
par. This could further be the time and place to pop with a top effort third
off the layoff and lacking “red” the Past 3 Runlines.
As far as the speed (Circles) coming back to the field, that
scenario assists the Squares: #2 ROCKET HOTSHOT moved up back on
this circuit and in at today’s claiming level. They should continue to hold form,
and recency presents the edge over #6 IZEONDEC returning from the layoff, the
first time in their career off a long break. They have the two longer works and
a capable barn with the visuals in the paddock and clues on the board to add in
this case
#4 LAND MARK DEAL had some tough luck last year though already put that behind them with the two wins this season. The win last month under a different claiming condition though a similar par and pace shape that that does hot have them too far out of it once again. The timing with 35-days off the win could be a subtle form cycle change though did find similar going back to February and win at MVR, a race with F. Reyes aboard, a rider that appears to have confidence with this horse.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 5:39 PM CST
#6 NOT FALLING BACK appears to hold a class edge coming
back as a 4yo with the change in class from the two MSW events last year to run
first time for the claiming tag. They were intended for the turf on debut acing
GREEN and TROUBLES+ making a RUSH while RANK into a Fast early pace. The
experience presented an overall move forward closing out in June the second start with the noted WEATHER
(light rain) and PRESSED on the lead through an honest pace, a pace that set up
for stablemate, Even The Wind from off the pace.
The change in class also comes into play for #7 CRECENCIO
for this second start and one that three weeks ago appeared to need the race
day experience – GREEN while noisy in the paddock and played out similar on the
track with the SLOG and appears no worse for the wear back in one week.
Class is closer to a lateral change as #4 RAGNOW returns
from the pair of tight place finishes, B OptixGRADE efforts while still present
in this maiden conditions. They will switch to the TURF, a surface that should
not be an issue for them at all based on physicality and to hold their form and
even in terms of trip as many others have show early speed to rate and finish
with the fitness on their side.
#5 CASH APP MIKE should hold longer odds while
necessary for them to step up on the level of their rivals while this would be
the time and place for them to do so. They showed run last week shifting to
this circuit and the turf with the key change in distance allowed to STRETCH out
today. #3 BEARS’ D also second off in what appeared a PREP earlier this
month. They made a PRERACE+ appearance in the paddock though in running looked
to need the start and not asked for their best – a new best that will be required
here lighter than others so far while still capable of improvement.
Sun May 18th, 2025 |
Download as PDF |
Jim's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Open things up on the grass as there's no standout in here. Went to the first timer 3-GUNNY SACK for Kirby as he has a consistent work pattern toward his debut. I expect some early speed from him in a race lacking pack. 5-LONE RETURN has knocked on the door a few times while sprinting on the turf. He ran a good race against open company in his last and should close well in the lane. 2-JAKES CHANNEL makes his first start of the year as he is worth a look at a price. He figures to rate mid-pack early in here but should run on in the lane.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:05 PM CST
Starter company in the second in a very competitive spot. A horse that was a good winner in his last returns as 4-CHAOS REIGNS should get a very similar trip to his last. He has tactical speed and can go but if Lavender Earl sends to his outside, then look for him to stalk and pounce in the lane. 3-DOUBLE THUNDER has never missed the board in eight Hawthorne starts. He should be sitting a few lengths off the early lead as he figures to take some action once again. 6-CATEGORY TEN is another that has been great at Hawthorne, hitting the board in 10 of 11 starts over the track. The distance suits as he drops in for the $15,000 tag in here.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:30 PM CST
Shooting for a price in here as there's a few with some early pace. Hoping 2-DIXIE PENNY can rate and rally as she steps up off a good win in her last for a barn that always has theirs well spotted. She was a good claim for $5k two back and now gets to race protected. 5-ECHO DREAMER has been good in both races this year as she is another that figures to rally in the lane. She is 3 for 3 at Hawthorne and could continue that trend in here, while at a decent price. 6-LADY HELENA is another that has been fantastic on this track as she was a near miss against allowance runners in her last. With others in here with speed, look for her to sit back early and run on in the lane.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 3:55 PM CST
Joel Berndt had a turf winner on Thursday and has a pair in here, both with a shot. The longer price of the two should be 5-COMMISSIONER OSCAR as he gets back to the turf, making his second start of the meet. He's going to need a little pace to chase, which is the only concern, but he finds a field where he should be competitive. 3-BRIT BLITZ has had some past turf success as he makes his first start of the year. In a race lacking pace, he could possibly rate a bit closer early as things may be slow upfront. 7-PROFESSOR HIGGINS has been at his best on the turf as he comes off a pair of races where he put forth a solid effort on dirt in his last couple. He's the other that could potentially rate close early as Loveberry should have him in a good spot.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:21 PM CST
A solid stakes field as the pace should be honest. The key in here could be that horses won't be able to race on Lasix which leaves some unknowns for a few in here. One that has been solid while coming off Lasix is 4-GRAY LIGHTNING as she was competitive in stakes at Will Rogers and Oaklawn in her last could. She has speed and I think can outkick the others in here to the front. 3-OEUVRE has been tremendous here at Hawthorne and is a horse that can run on any surface. This is the race that will push her past the $1 million mark in earnings on her career which is a great accomplishment for a horse that hasn't been scared off by anyone. She should be able to settle back early but I expect she is charging late in the lane. 2-PURR SEA has tactical speed as I expect she is sitting back early and running on in the lane. She likes this track and has run well with Santos in the saddle.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 4:47 PM CST
A really evenly matched bunch as we will see how these handle the 7 1/2 furlongs on the grass. 6-ATMIDNIGHT comes in from Florida as she was a solid second while going longer against starter company in her last. She will need some pace to chase but should get it here with the inside two likely to go. Let's see if she can run these down in the lane. 5-JOURNEYIST has some tactical speed as she figures to stalk and get the jump on the closers. She has been great on the dirt here at Hawthorne but isn't as proven on grass. That could be the equalizer in here. 8-EXCELERINA also has some speed as she has raced from coast to coast. The turf is where she's best and the price should be right. Let's see if she tries to beat the inside speed to the top or looks to rate and rally.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:13 PM CST
Conditioned claimers in here as we go 1 1/16 miles in this spot. With the pace likely to be honest, 2-ROCKET HOTSHOT likes this track, has won at the distance and has put forth a pair of good efforts on the meet. If he can save ground early, he should be picking off horses in the lane. 6-IZEONDEC has also run well here as he makes his first start of the year. He has just two works toward the return as fitness is the only question. 4-LAND MARK DEAL was a good winner here in his last as he was able to rate close behind a slow pace and run on late. He's run this distance numerous times and has shown the ability to close even when the pace ahead of him is slow.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Looking to those who could show some speed in here as I'll give the nod to 6-NOT FALLING BACK. He makes his first start of the year as he has worked consistently toward his return. Last year he put forth a good effort in his only turf start. Let's see if he needs a race or is ready to roll. 8-UPTOWN TOM has speed and has run well on the grass in both turf tries. He's the other that should be able to rate close early as he comes in with a brief break between starts. 10-SAND CAST draws outside as he ships in for Leonard. He has some versatility and may just wait to see how things unfold ahead of him.
Sun May 18th, 2025 |
Download as PDF |
Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Guess I wind up with 5-LONE RETURN. He raced well enough
against open company at this distance in his most recent start. The switch back
to Illinois breds can only help. 4-GOOD YEGG owns some of the higher speed
figures of this group, on turf and dirt. Would like his chances better if he
had more than the one race this year; one in which he faded badly, as the
favorite, on the main track. 2-JAKE’S CHANNEL might be the only one in this
race with any kind of speed, unless one of the Kirby first timers is quicker
than their modest drills suggest.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:05 PM CST
4-CHAOS REIGNS is far from the only speed in this race
but he could be the best. He wired a similar group at this level in his last
start. Could face even more early pressure today but think he’s up to the
challenge. 6-CATEGORY TEN also enjoys good early speed. Plus, he doesn’t
necessarily need the early lead to win. His rider might choose to let some of
the other front runners try to soften Chaos Reigns early and do his best to
take over late. 1-GLOBAL EMPIRE could surprise. He hasn’t shown much in two starts
this year but that could be about to chance. The pace of this race sets up for
his late move and for this race. Ademar Santos, who was aboard for two straight
wins last year, comes in to ride.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:30 PM CST
6-LADY HELENA should be tough. She in the midst of a
great year. She had a three-race win streak snapped in last but was only beaten
a head while facing allowance company. She appears equally adept at racing on
or off the pace. Her speed figures don’t really tower over those of her rivals
but it’s hard to find fault with her current form. 1-SHESINTHEARMYNOW could be
the best of the speed in this speed-filled race. She finished four lengths
behind top choice in that last allowance race but she was forced to lead
through blistering early fractions. Should have an easier time getting to the
front end today. Might lead throughout. 7-RAINY MOUNTAIN moves up in class but
she looked sharp winning last and there’s a good chance that the pace of this
race will set up even better for her late run.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 3:55 PM CST
Wide-open race. There are none in here that could be
accurately described as “turf” horses, no matter where they have been racing.
None have had a lot of success on the lawn or any surface. But I think
7-PROFESSOR HIGGINS might have the advantage. Most of his races, turf and dirt,
have been against better rivals. He doesn’t own a lot of natural speed but
there are few speed options in this field and, with the stretch out, he could
be close to the lead throughout. 2-REMEMBER THE FEAR is coming off a terrible
effort to make his turf debut but he had been racing competitively all winter
in Hot Springs and his pedigree would seem to suggest that he’ll be able to
handle the lawn. 1-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN is another stretching out and another expected
to display competitive speed at the distance. She is a mare meeting boys but
she has had a number of good races on the turf and she isn’t meeting any
monsters here.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:21 PM CST
3-OEUVRE is approaching $1,000,000 in earnings. This
talented Perkins homebred has won numerous stakes races, including last year’s
edition of this contest, when she carried 128 pounds to victory. With good
speed she’ll never be far off the pace. One possible issue, however, is that
this is a stakes race and in Illinois, horses racing in stakes are not allowed
to use Lasix. She has had six races without Lasix and never won, though none of
those races were at six furlongs, a distance in which she won six of seven and
finished second in the other. Not sure if she has any real competition in this
race though I expect challenges from the two S D Brilie homebreds, 2-PURR SEA and
5-BEEHIVE. Both ladies have been incredibly consistent in their careers. Both
love this track and both thrive at the distance. 6-SHARP HERO gave top choice a
run for the money the last time they met, but that was back in 2023. She’s
going to face a lot of pressure fighting for the lead. Will have to be at her
very best.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 4:47 PM CST
Have to give 8-EXCELERINA the benefit of the doubt. Throw
out that last race at Fonner. She isn’t a dirt horse. She belongs on the lawn
with an occasional foray onto synthetic. It’s been a long time since she had
any success but, until last, she had been facing far better. Think she’ll
awaken with the return to turf and has a good chance to wire the field. 6-ATMIDNIGHT
will close with a rush. She finished third in her lone local start, a race that
was moved off the turf and onto the dirt track. She’s been racing in Florida
ever since. The pace will set up for her. Can get up in time. 4-APRIL’S GEM has
had considerable turf success, often versus easier. However, she was
competitive in most of her local turf races last year. Seems to fit well with
these.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:13 PM CST
4-LAND MARK DEAL could make it two in a row. He got the
perfect stalking trip in last and his rider saved the best for last when he got
up in time to win by a neck. The pace of this race could set up even better for
him. The speedy 5-GITA’S LAD seems like he should be sitting on a win. He just
missed in last after leading much of the way. However, I don’t think he’s the
quickest from the gate and he just doesn’t win if he doesn’t get the early
lead. Not sure how long he’ll last but 8-ALYANAABI should break on top. He
displays good speed in sprints and that speed will be magnified with the
stretch out.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Not in love with 6-NOT FALLING BACK but his last race
against maiden specials, a year ago, wasn’t bad and he’s dropping to meet a far
easier group in his 2025 debut. It helps that he has one of the top turf
trainers around in his corner. 10-SAND CAST faced far better on a tougher
circuit in all five of his turf starts. He was somewhat competitive in two of
them. He had a dirt tune up in Louisiana following a four-month vacation. He
didn’t show much in that spot but think he’ll be much improved with the return
to grass. 8-UPTOWN TOM displayed very good speed in his two turf races. Expect
him to be right there throughout. Heard 7-CRECENCIO could run a bit but was
disappointed in his lone start. Might show more with the drop in class and
switch in surfaces.