Handicapper Tips & Picks

T 1 Hang On Baby 2 Stormont Molly 3 Hershey Seelster

T 4 Lucy Who 2 Divine Magic 1 Sweet Carrie T

T 8 Take On Me 2 New Rules 9 All Star Yankee

P 9 Powertrain 8 Woodmere Stealdeal 7 Century Heineken

P 6 Grandeur Seelster 7 Cheese So Pretty 1 Glenboro

P 2 Delight Bayama 6 Fade Out 1 Momentarily

P 3 The Golden Jet 7 Reign Supreme 2 Ahi Sunshine

T 1 Renegade Gypsy 8 Warrawee Xalt 7 Kipper Whipr Snipr

P 10 Kobra Kai 2 Dreamfair Arnie 6 Stop The Shootin

P 5 Tattoo Artist 3 American History 2 Warrawee Vital

P 1 Commanding Officer 5 Legion Seelster 7 East End

Rivelli had #3 KISS N BIZ scheduled to debut here at Hawthorne at the maiden claiming level twice back in June. The placement today suggests intent along with her debut effort strong enough in its own right to support her in this race. #5 SUMMER SWINGER will default here to Hawthorne as a MN-bred at the close of the Canterbury season. She is one of the older runners in this field as a four-year-old and her current form fits at this condition. Barandela will take over today and as a more patient rider she projects to stalk the early pacesetters and look for first run. #10 HAPPY SAILS could hold a class edge exiting higher race par maiden events at HS Indy. She will make her second start at the maiden claiming level with upside from the August 6^th race making an early wide move with extra ground loss off the turn and into the lane where she was not asked late.

Trainer Wesley Ward will send out a pair of debuting runners that often take a fair share of wagering support in this category. #7 PRIMAL CAUSE has a steady work tab coming into this race with #8 KEPT LEFT showing gaps in her works going back through June. She was also entered twice at Saratoga in Special Weight turf races and there could be some concern with the setback from those scratches and now debuting for the maiden claiming tag.

Rivelli will also be represented by a pair in this race: #6 CHI TOWN HUSTLER making their second start and positive surface switch to the turf, though ultimately could require more ground. #2 STEEL HAWK was scheduled to debut at Colonial in a $40k maiden claiming turf sprint back on August 31^st.

The Reyes pair were both longshot runners when they debuted in the June 11^th common race and will return together here off the 112-day layoff. #4 INDIO GUAPO has the physicality to handle the turf and picks up a live rider in Javier Tavares.  

#3 WILDWOOD BYE could step up in this race on debut for trainer Scott Becker. The barn has a solid record with debuting runners and Wildwood Bye fits as a new face in this field of runners. #8 AMERICAN PYRAMID has been overmatched throughout her career and requires class relief. While she will remain at the Special Weight level today, the circuit switch does provide her some class relief in terms of race par. The front wraps that were added on September 3^rd create some overall concerns and should be monitored today. #7 YANKEE AGATE has recorded some of the higher speed figures in this field and shown a level of competitive consistency against Special Weight company. She can be upgraded as one of the older runners in this field, though will give up recency coming back off the 422-day layoff. The layoff should also be considered for #4 LUCY JANE this afternoon for Vanden Berg and the combination of the layoff, class placement and colder barn could signal a prep. 

#2 JACKS SPRING BREAK fits logically as the race with a case to be made that he should be favored given his current form and finding subtle class relief from the HS Indy races this season. Bailey will take over today and was aboard for this barn and maiden win back on July 7^th.

#7 MADELYNS HEAT was reclaimed by Watkins and will return to this circuit with upside in his second start of the form cycle. The troubled start along with the layoff played against him on August 31^st at HS Indy and projects to move forward. He is another that finds a key rider change as Julio Felix returns to the saddle suggesting some positive intent.

Early money came in on #5 OFF TO THE BEACH returning to Hawthorne on September 25^th and Hughes will waste no time wheeling right back in just 6-days. They will return to a route of ground as well as Tavares in the saddle, the maiden win rider from July 2^nd at FanDuel.  

#11 LUCY’S CAKES FLY holds a class and speed figure edge to support her as the favorite in this race. The history of layoff lines comes with reservations overall, though as an individual she is well-spotted here by Maker to compete. Three-year-old #5 TWELVE STARS has upside as she makes her second start off the layoff and as a lightly raced type. She turned in a more competitive race on September 4^th than perhaps the running line and 6^th place finishing position suggests. 

#5 COMISKEY PARK has been holding his own in allowance company for Hernandez and looks well-meant returning to Hawthorne. He has been given a 37-day freshening into this race and the barn is off to a good start after opening week with a limited sample of runners. Rival #4 BEEALEA will follow a similar race-to-race pattern exiting the August 25^th HS Indy allowance race where he was making his first start back off the 312-day layoff. Some positive intent seemed in play by Boyce giving Beealea a start off the layoff gaining conditioning for this IL-bred runner into this fall/winter Hawthorne meet. Some upside could be projected in this second start of the four-year-old season, though will be tested running here at the open company allowance condition. 

While there are the “obvious” types in this field, #1 CAMP DAVID is worth making a creative case for in the Hawthorne Derby. He shows up in this event as a lightly raced runner that has upside and potential intent for this race. He was purchased in July at the Fasig Tipton horses of racing age sale. The placement of where to run him could have gone in many directions as he was entered in the Smarty Jones (G3), the Better Talk Now stakes at Saratoga, the Dueling Ground Derby (G3) and the New Kent County Virginia (G3) at Colonial before landing in the Gun Runner stakes. As far as trip, it is tough to make an excuse for Camp David in the Gun Runner stakes, though some consideration can be given with the layoff, the course still holding water and not being asked late. Camp David looks to have come out of the race well working on September 24^th and landing in this stakes event 17-days later for the second start of the form cycle and could be one of the “fresher” horses in this field. In addition, he could hold a pace advantage in this race with the rail draw and lack of E/EP RunStyle (OptixPLOT) horses in the field. Camp David will also be permitted to race on Lasix and that could further the intent to run in this race and on this circuit.

As far as the others in this field, #2 SPEAKING SCOUT could present a class edge and with an excuse in the Kent (G3), the races taken off the turf in the Bold Eagle Derby and finishing in a blanket for show in the Dueling Grounds Derby (G3) at Kentucky Downs. While he would be no surprise to win, there are factors with him as an individual to take into consideration at the projected post time odds where value is lacking at or below the 3-1 morning line. #6 ENCOURAGE returned in top form to the turf from the layoff for McPeek. He could have peaked in his form cycle off the pair of top efforts and wheeling back for this race on a 26-day turnaround. The same timing concerns are noted for #4 AMERICAN MAYHEM exiting the Gun Runner stakes and turning in a solid effort that day as he would require a move forward on a 17-day rest. 

The race shape according to OptixPLOT could favor #3 RED HOT DEVIL as the lone “E” RunStyle in the field with the lower Contention and SpeedRate. Form cycle also suggests a move forward making this third start off the layoff and upside from the slow start (SLOG) against a higher Optional Claiming group where Meraz kept him protected (possibly waiting for this meet) on September 1^st. Centeno, the win rider from back on June 25^th will return today with the call. #9 EL ASESINO took a legit stumble coming out of the gate on August 19^th at FanDuel, compromising his chances that evening as the betting favorite. He will return to Hawthorne with serious class relief from his races here earlier this year. #10 AGAVE KID is another logical type returning to Hawthorne with form over this course and with E.T. Baird back aboard as he has been aboard in four of the five wins for Agave Kid, all three here at Hawthorne including a place and two show finishes.