Handicapper Tips & Picks

I really like this claim of Marys Last Song as she may have more to offer. She fit nicely at this level last out but stumbled at the start before running on late.  With a good amount of speed in here and the top challengers to the outside, I expect she gets a good trip with Mojica aboard.

At time of writing (Wednesday) this race is 50/50 to remain on the grass. With that in mind, Counter Offer would be a threat on turf or dirt.  He raced well in a race taken off the turf last out and may rate a bit closer early in a race that lacks pace.

A light of lightly raced horses leaves room for one to jump up and run big in this spot. With that said the most consistent runner in the field is Bruce Banner. His figures have him faster than these but most starts are around two turns. The move to a spring may get him into the winner's circle, or may be a reach trying to find a victory.

This is a very tough race with many in with a shot. Half of the first 24 starters from the Arnett barn this meet have found the board and often times while facing better company. Sun Squall lost to a horse that has had a ton of Hawthorne success last out and today drops to face easier. 

Much of what happens in this race will be determined by if horses can get in off the also's list. Lucy's Cakes Fly ran very well over this course in a tough loss on Hawthorne Derby day. This is an easier spot than that race was. Kingsbury dream has been ultra consistent on the turf and shows figures that would put her right there in this bunch. She just needs to get in.

With Gita's Lad and D'Fever scratching out of here for a race on Saturday it does remove some of the pace from this race. There's still a good amount of speed in here which should set things up for the closing move of Irish Valor. This horse hit another gear late in the lane last out as the long Hawthorne stretch benefits his stride. Irish Declaration should welcome the added distance off his last couple. P H Factor is solid on all surfaces but his best dirt races at Hawthorne have come in spots where he went unchallenged upfront early.

Shortlist has been very consistent while making starts over four different tracks this year. Hawthorne will be his fifth.  He finds a spot with quite a bit of early pace to chase and gets the distance where he races his best. Calibrate is another that should be running on late while Tonka Warrior shifts back to the main track after a big turf try in the Hawthorne Derby last out.

Despite the large field there isn't much in regards to early pace in this race. Tapit Sam draws well and comes off a big effort at this level last out. He also shortens up a 16th of a mile which can only benefit his chances today. Global Empire is the other pace but will have to overcome an outside draw.  Stun Gun may be a sleeper as he ran on late after stumbling at the start last out.