Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 SHE’S XTREMELY HOT fits strong as favorite; she’s the horse to beat as she comes into with some of the strong speed figures and subtle class relief from Canterbury Park. She has a habit of breaking slow (SLOG) and that should again be expected here. The SLOG caused her to work extra HARD to finish in a blanket at the wire back on September 16^th and the added time to recover (57-days since last race) makes sense in this case.

#4 MAIDEN ROCK could offer some value over the others returning to this condition and distance from the October 16^th race. She has upside with the rider change, a poor ride (TACTIC-) that day and found herself against (X_FLOW) the dynamic of the race shape. 

The TURF OptixNOTE Keyword upgraded #5 ORNERY ANGEL on October 16^th projecting improvement that she ran to with the show finish at 10-1. Her BTL effort is unlikely to be ignored and a shorter price is projected today, especially with the rider change as Loveberry jumps aboard. As far as her trip last month, there was some in-running TROUBLE early on in the race and was possibly stepped on from behind. The pace scenario and value could sit with #11 APRIL’S GEM returning in this spot and with a favorable Plot position alongside rival Ornery Angel as a Quad II Square. 

#6 TIZ HOPPIN could be in line to make her turf debut should the races remain on the grass. She has some hidden form coming into this race and off a key 33-day break giving her adequate recovery time from her two prior starts. She ran a taxing race (HARD) on September 17^th and that impacted here along with the Very Fast OptixRACESHAPE coding setting the pace (DUEL) on October 9th. Her presence in this race makes things tougher for #7 KANFU, one that is proven over the turf and today’s claiming condition. 

Longshot runners #10 RARE ACTION ATTACK (buried turf form and numbers on OFR/par) (and #13 MIDSHIP LADY (AE)) could also benefit from the higher SpeedRate as Quad IV Squares making up ground late to pick up horses in the underneath, exotic spots. #3 HEY HEY does not hold as “flashy” of a Plot though has some buried turf form and could be a cagey move by this barn bringing her back to the grass and looking for improvement on the two week turnaround.

#3 MY REDEMPTION has the appearance of a vulnerable favorite wheeling back in just 12-days off a taxing/HARD win at Mountaineer Park. #2 BETTER THINK TWICE has shown distance limitations (SHORTER, ONE_TURN) and has that challenge in play today and could extend to #4 CHRISTMAS PRESENT stretching out to a route and still unproven at the distance – value concerns on the latter pair. 

#7 KNIEVEL could pick up the slack in this case coming into this race with form (B- OptixGRADE) and OptixFIG in OFR and lacking “Red” in the Past 2 Runlines. Looking to get a little more creative in this race: #8 WHERE’S THE DAY GO is upgraded on a progressive pattern resetting their form cycle here on October 2^nd and improving with the WIDE trip and 74 OptixFIG on October 15^th. Those races should set up for a top effort today. #5 ICECAP follows a similar progressive pattern and has buried form shown in the recent OptixNOTES and back OptixFIG that standout in this field. His current form as shown in the Past 3 Runlines overrides the running lines and finishing positions “on paper” – factors that should have him dismissed by the public.

Tough to get past #3 TAHOE RUN as the expected favorite coming off a solid debut with the 81 OptixFIG that stands out over the field and B- OptixGRADE. He earned that effort in against open company where he returns today and could be a IL-bred to follow in that division. Fellow IL-bred, #1 FEVER NATION will step up to take on open company here. He ran well on debut with the 68 OptixFIG and B- OptixGRADE for the statebred Special Weight level on October 14^th and looks to have come out of the race well drilling a pair of solid half-mile moves since. #5 SLAVA UKRAINI also showing up with steady local works to make an impact here on debut.

Statebred #9 WESLAN returns to Hawthorne and presents some upside from that local debut where he was green in the GATE and showed run in spots and out past the wire. He should be fit exiting the route race at Keeneland last month and is given a flow upgrade from that race as part of the Very Fast opening half mile. #4 UNDERTOW exits the common race with Weslan on September 25^th pairing up figures and run (PLODDY) to his debut. He could benefit from the first time Lasix though has just one work since and ultimately might benefit from added (STRETCH) ground.

The intention was to run #10 SHARP AZ NAILS here over the TURF (MSW 8f) on September 30^th (scratched) where he would have been an ideal fit off the OptixNOTE from his HS Indy debut. The conditions change here as he has been off two months since the debut to consider in this spot.

#9 KHOZIE’S GHOST could hold a pace advantage as shown on OptixPLOT. There is other Contention (Fire) in the race and that scenario could benefit her stablemate #6 AUNT STELLA with her Plot position tracking also as a Quad I Square. 

Both #3 OWEN’S PLEASURE and #4 SWEET CONFUSION return from the October 22^nd common race at this condition and the pair earning B- OptixGRADES on the day. Splitting these two in form cycle, Owen’s Pleasure is upgraded projecting the move forward today, and with better handling (TACTIC-) from Ortiz as well. The subtle trips for this pair in that race assisted rival, #5 GO STORMIN GIRL with a PERFECT trip to win. She was further aided by the scratch of Khozie’s Ghost taking out some of the early pace for the race and creating a softer trip.

#6 GHAALEB THE GREAT is positioned as a Closer in Quad IV, though could shown more tactical speed shifting back to the dirt and finding class relief - a lower OFR today compared to her most recent races at Woodbine. In terms of form and exiting the higher OFR events, the recorded B- OptixGRADES can be upgraded for today’s event. 

#7 CAT ATTACK will look for a potential pace advantage with the Standard (Current form) Plot as she looks to carry her form back to the main track and sprint distance - holding a class edge over #8 LILY’S WOOFY. Trip is key for #4 WHITE LIES as well in this race. Her current form, class and OptixFIG could allow for her to overcome the pace in today’s race checking the boxes on those other factors.

#9 KEEPMEINTHE MOMENT is an interesting new face in this field. Her Del Mar form and races stack up on par for this event. She was claimed back in the September 2^nd event and scratched from a starter allowance at Los Alamitos on September 17^th and from a $40k claiming event at Churchill Downs by Manley on November 3^rd to run here instead. #6 MAYSTART comes into this race on the softer side number wise, though has form at today’s allowance condition where the “class” side of her form upgrades her in today’s race. 

It is tough to find any excuse for #12 MAUREENLOVESFRANK on October 23^rd in terms of trip that day. Going into the race itself, she appeared peaked in her form cycle and rebounding to the September efforts has her back on par for today’s race. #1 LONGTALLWOMAN wheels back from the pace finish in that common race and has improved in her races this cycle, however, she has paired tops in October where regression could be in play today and she must keep up her current form to compete for the top spot here.

The race shape projects light contention and a scenario to upgrade #11 FIRST KITTEN holding early speed, Quad I advantage. #2 WICKED GOOD will move off the rail coming back from taking KICKBACK- on October 23^rd. Her maiden win 80 OptixFIG from April stands out in this field and is above today’s OFR. 

That 80 OptixFIG from Wicked Good is a tic higher than the 78 OptixFIG earned by #4 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT picking up her maiden win here three weeks ago and will be out to prove she can repeat against winners.  #10 UNION PARK GAL generally has not been as effective on the main track, however she fits with her current form and upgraded with the front wraps removed today. #6 BELLS OF JOY has progressive form and favorable improve OptixGRADE form cycle pattern coming off the B- OptixGRADE last month and returning in her third start off the layoff. #9 QUEEN EKATI could be upgraded as well also earning a B- OptixGRADE in the October 23^rd common race both fillies finishing for the minors behind the open length pacesetting winner, Dolly’s Line.