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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat November 12th, 2022

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:53 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Stars On Fire [IRE] - 5/2 5 Golden Star - 4/1 1 Miss River Rat - 9/2

The benefit of having run a race gives Stars On Fire the nod over the field in here. She showed speed in a turf sprint at Saratoga and led the field into the lane before giving way late. The addition of Lasix and a speed jock in the saddle makes the difference today.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:21 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Queen's Mission - 2/1 1 Louie P - 3/1 5 Kimberly Frances - 5/2

Short fields make it very tough to look to anyone that has to close up too much ground late. There's only a couple with speed in here as both Queen's Mission and Louie P should be forwardly placed. Lezcano back aboard Queen's Mission could make the difference in here.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:44 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Pinedale - 5/1 1 Aheadofthegame - 3/1 4 Millard's Smile - 2/1

Unlike race two where there is very little early pace, half of this field appears to be committed to the front. With that said, Pinedale could be the one to get a great trip from the second flight. He ran well at this level two races back and had late run despite a rough trip last time out. Now leading jock Mojica is in the saddle as this one could get a dream trip.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:43 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Time Break - 9/2 1 Ghaaleb's Magic - 7/2 6 Arch Flyer - 5/1

No pace at all in the race which makes the difference for Time Break. This one has every chance to make the front and gets a switch in the saddle to Tavares who looks to be a good fit. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:13 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Cat Royale - 6/1 9 Primity - 3/1 2 Loveyoulikecrazy - 5/1

With no standout in here it is worth looking to the horse debuting that has some upside. While the breeding suggests Cat Royale may want to go further eventually, this is a good starting spot. She has a long pattern of consistent works, gets Lasix, comes off a snappy bullet drill into this race and picks up a solid rider in Emigh. Maybe she is ready at first asking.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:36 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Scat Shack - 4/1 2 Bourbon Delight - 7/2 1 High Brow - 9/5

With the potential for High Brow and Bourbon Delight to duke things out on the front end from the start, Scat Shack could sit on a perfect trip in here. He rated just off the pace and ran on well in his last, posting a career best figure in his first start over the track. He provides some value potential in this spot.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 6:03 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
9 Deora Store - 6/1 6 Tapit Sam - 7/2 5 Jacks Spring Break - 5/2

Figures say Jacks Spring Break will be vey tough in here but I have concerns that this is not a great distance for this horse. We will see if the 5 1/2 furlongs is enough. Deora Store drops in class off what was a quality field for the level he raced at last out. He has been gradually improving and may get a confidence boost in here.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 6:33 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Big Pines Sandy - 6/1 10 Buxterhooter - 9/2 2 Wild Fox - 4/1

Big Pines Sandy took a pretty big leap off the claim in his last and while the running line doesn't look great, the figure was consistent compared to his prior races. This is a much more manageable spot as he draws well. Typically later in the day on these chilly days the track evens out and those who look to run on late and get into the mix. On top of that, jock Centeno has quietly had a very good meet.