Handicapper Tips & Picks

The Plot gives an upgrade in position and shape to #4 GRAND HIDEWAY with the complexion of this race and his current form. He can move up off the October 21^st TROUBLE and finished stronger (CLOSE) than the 5^th place finish and running line may suggest on paper. His Plot position could take first run on #2 REMEMBER THE MAINE, one that projects to be shorter on the board of the two.

#8 UPBEAT MELODY should hold a pace advantage of the runners on the lead as a smaller, tighter Circle position above the Par Line with the lower 17 SpeedRate. That SpeedRate could present a hurdle for #11 THE BOSS FACTOR, one that on the other handicapping factors fits for this race. Those same pace challenges could again be in play for #3 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE, one that was upgraded stretching out for an event here on November 6^th and land here by default scratching from race with the races taken off the turf.

#3 WILDWOOD GHALY comes back for her second start following an EX – EXCUSE in her October 23^rd debut. She was unprepared at the start (GATE) breaking slow (SLOG) as a result and was not asked (NO_PUSH) for run after. She projects to improve off that race, show more early speed and can be upgraded further with the rider change and shift in class to run at the statebred Special Weight level. Her stablemate #1 GHALY POSSE also fits logically off her form, though requires to show more to win stepping up from the consistent B- OptixGRADES, a GRADE slightly below the “winning” for the level. 

The draw is unfortunate for #13 LEA RO and #14 ACCORDING TO ASPEN sitting on the AE as they both fit this race. According to Aspen is shown as a Large Quad IV Square a trip from off-the-pace in line with today’s race dynamic with the high 72 SpeedRate. That race dynamic upgrades #4 ZANDREA’S one that also can upgraded from the trip on October 23^rd where she is projected to IMPROVE. Her trip today sits in line with rivals #3 ON A TOUR and #9 KINGSBURY DREAM and should be longer odds of that set.

#6 SENSE OF SELF does not necessarily stand out on the Plot as a Quad II Circle, though is capable from that position. Some of her current form is tough to Plot as she has been racing in higher conditioned allowance races and should move up with progressive form along with the class change in her third start off the layoff. #5 SEAWARD will take the DROP in class from the higher condition on October 23^rd and returns to the condition of the October 14^th race, a race taken off-the-turf and should remain on the grass today.

Longshot #10 GOOD MONGOLIA is tough to make a case for on the win end, though has form back in her form that can be along for a minor share.

#4 CAPTIVATING MOON arguably is the “best” horse in this race and might require that class edge returning from the 141-day layoff. He has been training over the last few months working towards a return and landing in this spot for Block.  

The third start of the form cycle and stretching back out to a dirt route should have #6 READTHECLIFFNOTES sitting on a top effort today. He returned in the Pizza Man stakes off the layoff, a race he won in 2021 with that race moved to the main track. The honest pace and running on the yielding turf coming back from nearly a year away from the races assisted the ground saving stalking run from #7 RICHIE’SGOTGAME to pick up the win. The placement sprinting on October 29^th with the quick turnaround for the Lightening Jet stakes was not ideal all around for Readthecliffnotes, though useful to keep up his conditioning and racing off the layoff. The pace scenario today could also further flatter his RunStyle shown as a Quad I Square.

A longshot case can be made for #3 ALMAFUERTE as she returns in this spot for her second start of the meet. She looked to require the race on October 15^th after 32-days off and the race shape today could play to her RunStyle and form as a Large Square in Quad III. A more logical #7 CATANIA should be sitting in that stalking position and shown high on the Plot y-axis represents her speed to the second call and should utilize that speed in today’s race shape along with her finishing (Square) ability to present here as a contender coming back off the 84-day layoff.

#5 RANK AND FILE could also be sitting on a top effort returning today with the 37-day freshening and reuniting with Abel Lezcano, a live rider for a live Elias Lopez barn.

This event is competitive and could be more open as the par for this allowance races projects lower than other events run at this condition. #8 COURTHOUSE COVE could benefit in that scenario as he has held his form (B- OptixGRADES) at this level this season - grades that stack up alongside those from #3 BEEALEA this meet. 

#2 COMISKEY PARK has also recorded B- OptixGRADES at this allowance condition and some of the higher speed figures in this field; however, those numbers have been on the decline since the summer creating some concerns with his current form especially with the NO_FINISH on October 23^rd. His trip on the front end will be tested as well with the other runners positioned in Quad I/III. 

The extended sprint distance fits #9 MAC PANDOWDY one that is light on numbers as again he is given a class test here shifting to open company. As he comes into this race with form that could translate to a minor finish. The distance also suits #4 ANDREW THE GIANT another that has been overmatched this year at the allowance condition. He also carries similar back numbers for an underneath award, as well as the foundation this year making his third start back off the layoff.

On Standard, #1 SHANGHAI SILVER and #7 JACKS SPRING BREAK are upgraded off their current form, tactical speed, and finishing (Square) ability. Both are upgraded off their races this season with Shanghai Silver earning a B- OptixGRADE at this level on October 28^th and Jacks Spring Break finding class relief coming back off the 60-day layoff. #4 KANITHAPPEN drops in class for this race and could signal intent by the connections with that change as well the rider change upgrading to Baird this afternoon.

On Surface/Distance, #8 LARK could hold a pace advantage forwardly placed in Quad I with the lighter SpeedRate. He could require that advantage as he form and OptixFIG lack an edge over others in this race. The B- OptixGRADE at this level and distance for #6 TEA AFTER BALLET from October 9^th also fits on today’s race par/OFR, though is still lighter on figures compared to others in this field - something that should be compensated for on the board.

The class drop could also benefit #9 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN (Standard Square) for this race and an edge he would require cutting back in distance and returning to the main track. The distance change could be a hurdle for #11 MADELYN’S HEAT cutting back to a sprint where otherwise his form has held up this season and progressive on OptixFIG.