Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 STORM BORN is logical off his recent form and recording the B OptixGRADE (winning effort for the level) under similar maiden claiming conditions on the turf last month. Becker also has #4 AWESOME WILLY picking up in this spot from the October 28^th common race; dropping in for the maiden claiming tag and stretching out in distance after recording a solid 71 OptixFIG. The winner of that maiden event, Bruce Banner returned to record an 81 OptixFIG here in a November 13^th allowance sprint. 

#2 GRAND FESTIVAL has had his share of GATE issues and breaking slow. The drop in class and stretch out in distance for this second start off the layoff suggests positive intent. The barn will also be represented by #7 JACKPOT BOY one that has the route experience on his side sharing the habit of slow (SLOG) starts.  

#8 I’M YOUR VALENTINE is cross entered in a $7500 maiden claiming event on Friday and given a mention if they pick this spot instead where the class drop all around is beneficial. 

The pace scenario is a tough read for this race as there are no true “E/EP” RunStyle horses in this field as shown in the OptixRPM. Going back to last year and some hidden form, #1 SUN SQUALL could take up that role as he has races on the lead going back in his career. That could be the tactic in today’s race shape along with the rail draw and going first off the claim with Orlando Mojica taking over. 

The declining form could be a concern for #5 JACK’S ADVANTAGE one that otherwise fits in this race with a strong Plot shape and position; and perhaps did not take to running under the lights on November 4^th. #2 DARK HEDGES has been holding his form and no real knocks, clean Past 3 Runlines at this level.

The Plot also upgrades #6 CHICKS FOR FREE one that will give up recency returning from the 99-day layoff. Manley did have him ready off the layoff to win back in July at FanDuel and this horse has a solid Hawthorne record though was racing in lower conditioned races than today’s par.

The trip and pace is the hurdle again for #4 STORMIN HONGKONG with his late closing RunStyle/Quad IV, though otherwise a fit in this race off his closing place finish last month under similar OFR and productive October 9^th race. #3 BIG PINES SANDY validating that form with the win on November 12^th though tested here off that HARD/taxing effort just one week ago. 

Class and speed figures standout on #2 AHH MAZING making her return from the 199-day layoff and first start for trainer Greg Foley. She will cut back to a sprint today and might not “need the lead” or be able to make the lead in this race. #10 STEAL MY SUNSHINE and Baird are likely going to try and “steal” this race on the lead. Their hand will be forced coming back from the layoff and drawn outside in this race. 

Both #4 BELPERRON and #6 WILDWOOD BYE return here from the October 23^rd common race and overall similar effort as documented by the B- OptixGRADE. #8 YANKEE AGATE also returns from that common race in her second start back off the 44-day layoff and noted wagering support last month from the 10-1 morning line. The removal of the front wraps is worth monitoring today.

#6 SENOR MIKE will make his debut at the statebred Special Weight level and is upgraded as a new face with progressive, consistent form this season that fits on par. They will return with Tavares, the debut rider from back on October 9^th, a sneaky good debut effort all things considered. Stablemate #2 SKIP AWAY CARTER could also be upgraded with progressive OptixFIG in this third start of the form cycle and returning to the statebred level. 

#9 SMOOTH ATTACK with the expected odds and Quad I Square is kept on the radar. He will make just his third start at the statebred Special Weight level with class relief from the November 6^th race and would monitor the front wraps today. #3 KISS N BIZ also has legit early speed though has her challenges here as a sophomore filly. The connections are capable overall, and the placement could land her here by default following a vet scratch back on October 23^rd.

Those runners race here in contrast to the more "proven" types: #10 INSIDE THE CIRCLE as one that could hold the pace advantage as shown on OptixPLOT. However, they have knocks on other factors to weight as a potential shorter price in this race. They have run and come up short at this level many times in the past, the lack of finish losing ground in the lane, along with a colder barn and weaker rider aboard. #5 DASH TO THE CASH could be equal giving up the pace advantage for slightly more consistent form under today’s conditions and a stronger rider with Orlando Mojica aboard. The current form could assist #4 J J’S SOLUTION, an edge they would require lacking any other strong edge over others in this race.

Tough to know if this stakes race was the plan for #1 TAHOE RUN as Robertson wheels back in just a week to run here off a near miss (B OptixGRADE) finishing together and clear with the race winner at the wire. Their form and OptixFIG has been consistent and stacks up on the higher end of today’s OptixFIGRANGE.  The intention to run in this race could be there for #8 FEVER NATION with trainer Chris Block scratching from that November 11^th Special Weight race to run here instead. Orlando Mojica was named that day and had been aboard for the debut and will be aboard #3 CHI TOWN HUSTLER with Loveberry likely riding at the Fair Grounds.

Rivelli won the Showtime Debutante stakes with Mom’s Town last Saturday (11/12) sending her out as one of three for the barn in the race and will return here with a three-fold threat as well. The pattern for Mom’s Town, still a maiden and exiting a $25k maiden claiming race at Presque Isle. The closest to that pattern here is #2 RIGHT ON RICHIE, a Colonial winner back in August and makes a statebred debut in this race. #5 RIVZONAROLL has run his faster races on this main track to fit on par. The pace scenario could be a hurdle especially with the very quick #6 LOOKIN FOR BALA in the race as shown on OptixPLOT.

Tough to know #4 EL MUCHO making his debut in this race for a barn that has not had much success in this category, albeit with just a limited sample. It is interesting with Bowen aboard to ride and this being his lone mount on the card.

#2 TWOKO BAY fits right back under similar conditions from the November 4^th race. The form was upgraded coming off the October 8^th “prep” and should again find pace to CLOSE into with the higher “Sun” Contention and 70 SpeedRate.

#3 SOUL COAXING could have been looking for the main track when entered here back on October 8^th, scratched from that turf event. They will run here in their meet debut and finding class relief from the September 17^th Canterbury race with the higher OFR. Soul Coaxing has run most recently forwardly placed, though does not require that run style and can run from off the pace as shown earlier this year at the Fair Grounds. #9 HAPPY CAMPER could project upside with hidden form and “excuses” in his two recent starts. The TROUBLE seemed to impact him physically (OUCHY) on May 7^th and returned from the layoff last month a little short (PLODDY) off the 181-day layoff and should be fit coming out of that evening race 15-days ago and with a key rider change for Manley with Santiago taking over.

#8 FLATOUT WINNER has the strong Plot position to compete in today’s race shape, though current form with the “Red” Keywords and possible REGRESS from the November 4^th win with the quick turnaround here should be assessed with potential vulnerability. The early pace should be contentious as noted in part to the presence of #1 KHOZAN’S VALENTINE. The pace could present a hurdle for #10 LAVENDER EARL in today’s dynamic though given a mention. They are shown on the Plot as a Large Circle, that shape representing a lack of finishing ability compared to others in this field. Part of that shape is due to the October 8^th where Lavender Earl was PRESSED on a Very Fast pace for 6/8ths of the mile and that playing a role in the “lack of finish” late.

The Plot upgrades #9 IMPERIAL MOMENT as a Quad I Square with the lower SpeedRate. In addition to pace, they are upgraded for the second start at this restricted $5k claiming level and intent with the blinkers on and for today’s 6.5f distance noting a scratch on November 4th. Longshot #6 EMOJI GUY is an interesting player in this race coming off three straight races with subtle trips going back to September 8^th at Belterra Park as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. They were given a “longshot” look off that “buried form” when entered under similar conditions here on October 21^st when still with Jones and today entered for Manny Perez. 

#10 PINSON will cut back to a sprint and from a strong effort (B OptixGRADE) under similar conditions back on October 21^st with form, figures, and RunStyle/Plot in line with #3 DAAHERS BULLY one that is still looking to find where they fit against open company on this circuit. 

#11 UNBROKEN SONG requires a trip and more assertive rider today under Gallardo, though is showing progression and should offer value over #4 SIR ACEALOT both recording similar C+ OptixGRADES at the condition this season. The B- OptixGRADE from #1 HATCHET CREEK is tough to ignore though must find another move forward off that race just 15-days ago.