Handicapper Tips & Picks

The early pace should be contested by #1 COAL DOWN ROAD and #4 THE LAST FACT as shown on the OptixPLOT. Coal Town Road is upgraded as the Square, however the “Red” Keywords with the NO_FINISH races at this maiden claiming condition to create concern even with the Plot at a short price. The Last Fact will make their first start at this lower maiden claiming level and look to have intent with the steady worktab coming back from the 401-day layoff by Kirby, a barn that has had solid success so far this meet with a limited sample.

The contention and early duel could assist #5 UNCLE DICK and #6 WILDCAT HAGRID another pair that have form concerns in their own right and would require the trip to set up their win.   

#6 NOT VERY GENTLE had a look on November 12^th though his chances were cut short with legitimate TROUBLE+ in the early stages of the race. They appear no worse for the wear wheeling back in just a week for Haran. Not Very Gentle, shown with a similar Surface/Distance Plot should offer value over #5 TALLESTOFTHETALL one that recorded a similar C+ OptixGRADE at this level and did so saving ground without excuse or trouble in his way on November 6^th.

According to the Plot, there should be minimal excuse for #4 YAK in terms of trip with a potential clear pace advantage (Quad I) in this event, unless.... Haran has #3 FINAL CALL in the race and stretching him out in distance could see him closer to the pace as they have in the limited route races going back in his past performances, a change from the Quad IV Plot position.

#1 UNBROKEN SONG can up upgraded returning to the two-turn (ROUTER) distance and from Standard. They are cross entered in a race earlier this week and should be monitored where they decide to run. The added ground should also benefit #2 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE one that in addition to the STRETCH out in distance will find some class relief from his recent turf races.

#4 MY REDEMPTION (vulnerable) was able to work a trip (TACTIC+) to win 9-days ago and could struggle to back that up as the favorite here with the change in class, distance, and form cycle regression. His Plot position lacks an edge in today’s race shape and the “Red” Keywords in the Past 3 Runlines indicate negative form cycle factors as well. Looking at the Plot it would be tough to take My Redemption over #1 GLOBAL EMPIRE with the shift in odds paired with the Plot visuals. 

The presence of a soft, weak and/or vulnerable favorite should create value and getting creative with horses that might not “jump off the page” by comparison. #7 ALPINE GHOST will make his second start off the claim and class relief from the return races this season given the higher 87-79 OFR in those October events. There is the shown “Fire” Contention, however Alpine Ghost is listed as the only EP (no E) runner in this field with a potential, hidden pace advantage. The slight addition of ground (STRETCH) and class relief with today’s lower OFR should move up #5 MON AMI FUZZIE for this race.  

The lower SpeedRate could benefit #2 LORD DYLAN and #6 TWO COOKIE RULE and the two preferred again over My Redemption, however they still must show up with a top effort and lack a strong edge over others in this race.

Lone Quad I Square, #9 ARCH FLYER is a major upgrade and especially at the value projected by the morning line. #8 HER GOLD MINE also moves up returning to a sprint and was following a progressive form cycle pattern prior to the route race on October 16^th and could still be sitting on that peak effort here.

#5 RANK AND FILE could be sitting the right trip stalking as a Quad II Square; as that trip is again key for this shorter 5.5f distance. Trip will also be key for #11 PRANCIPANTS for the distance, their RunStyle and for this shorter 5.5f distance. With that said, there should be compensation on the board and Prancipants has numbers this season at FanDuel that stack up in today’s OFR if able to translate to course. The front wraps should also be monitored as they were added for the layoff return on November 13^th and wheeling back here in just a week.

Some intent could be in play for #2 SUPERSTAR DIVA by Zawitz returning from another layoff (negative sign and tougher to take a short price with the excessive layoff lines) noting a trainer scratch on November 13^th, with #3 WANNA HAVE FUN also a trainer scratch from that same race to run here instead.

The tendency to break slow (SLOG) has been problematic for #3 FIXICO and must “fix” that to compete here. That said, they have upside with the subtle trip (MOVE, TROUBLE) on October 16^th and projected to IMPROVE off that race. They could be under the radar with Martinez also sending out #11 SCARLET CITY (NO_VALUE) - a runner that is much more at home on the turf as they return to Hawthorne in this main track sprint. 

#4 TALE OF THE NILE was given a WARM_UP (can have negative impact in the race) on October 21^st and still ran a competitive (B- OptixGRADE) with the WIDE trip. Their show finish could also be further upgraded with the top two finishers setting the pace throughout and finishing together at the wire.

Perez has #5 EMOJI GUY entered here as well as for a race on Saturday given the upgrade in either spot off their buried (OptixNOTES shown in the Past 3 Runlines) form. The rider change with Bowen named here and the subtle change in distance with Sunday’s race a slightly lower OFR is also noted with both races at this restricted $5k level. #7 OUTRUN THE POSSE also given a mention here should they take this spot over a similar condition in the Friday (11/18) finale.

The timing as it relates to current form cycle is in question for #5 SHE’S XTREMELY HOT (Soft Favorite) wheeling right back in just 9-days from a taxing, HARD effort in order to win on November 11^th. #8 NOFANSINTHESTANDS should offer value with the Robertson trainee in the race and upgraded on the Plot of the pair shown on Standard a strong, Large Square, for the two side-by-side.

Longshot #2 BEZEL SET wheels back in two weeks looking to IMPROVE off the subtle November 6^th trip. They were caught WIDE early and against the dynamic (X_FLOW) with a Slow (S O4S) early pace and with minimal (NO_PUSH) as from the rider. A similar WIDE trip and the X_FLOW dynamic also played against #3 BEING CREATIVE out of the same common race and #7 PRESENT OF HERO, though more obvious of the group with the B- OptixGRADE and show finish. #4 ROYA could hold a pace advantage (Surface/Distance Quad I Square) as they stretch back out in distance and find class relief from the October races here this season.

The class drop is in play for both #1 GYPSY WIFE and #6 EMBARRASING for this race and the change comes with some concern along with the surface change as both tend to prefer the turf or synthetic.

There are no strong knocks on projected favorite, #1 JACKS SPRING BREAK (Quad I Square) wheeling back to make his first start off the claim and back to a preferred route of ground. He projects to be favored and there are others here that fit as well and with the option to get creative outside the obvious:

There is a group that will show up today noting they were entered in a similar conditioned race and route distance back on November 5^th, the day the races were cancelled due to weather. #7 MINISTRY OF ART could present value with a similar Plot shape and position as an alternative to Jacks Spring Break. The Plot upgraded #9 BLOOMING GARDEN earlier this month, however, today finds a tougher dynamic to work a trip from. The race shape could suit longshot, #2 RIP IT RYAN from off the pace – Quad IV Square. He has the 110-day, three month layoff to overcome though has a competitive race and 73 OptixFIG from a similar conditioned race here last December that stacks up both on Speed and Class with today’s OFR. #3 DARE GOES DA DEVIL has shown run in spots this season though still has yet to run that “fast” race required to compete. Today just might be his day on an “every other” pattern with improvement expected with the form cycle and added (STRETCH) ground upgraded on Surface/Distance.

#5 STORM’S REFLECTION (No Value) will return to this circuit and could receive attention off that local form. His trip also projects to be compromised as a Circle with the others in this field paired with the higher Contention and SpeedRate.