Handicapper Tips & Picks

Tough to get too creative in here with #4 TAPE TO TAPE and #1 LAKE MILLS logical types in this race. The pacesetter Tape to Tape is upgraded on Standard (current form) as a Quad I Square above the Par Line with his Surface/Distance also worthy of an upgrade exiting the October 30^th race as the BOS (Best of the Speed) and setting a fast (X_FLOW) in the process. Lake Mills should find a stalking trip as shown as Quad I Square in the center of the Plot. The “Fire” Contention is a change from the “Snowflake” on October 30^th though both events holding a similar SpeedRate.

#9 TOM’S LAST GENERAL will need a lot of racing luck to win from Quad IV, though will be closing late and lacks any “Red” in the Past 3 Runlines, suggesting a horse in form. #7 COMISKEY PARK also sits favorably on the Plot, however his Past 3 Runlines show some declining form. OptixFIG, to consider in terms of value.

#2 WESLAN fits on the class drop keying his OptixFIG here at Hawthorne this season stacking up in today’s OptixFIGRANGE/OFR. Those efforts also move him forward in terms of “pace” capable of sitting closer to the lead as shown as a Quad I Square. #4 SNOWMOBILE projected a DROP in the Special Weight event two weeks ago and should move up with the change here. 

As far as the first time starters; Lilia Gonzalez has shown up with live in a limited sample and has a steady work tab for this race and circuit for #6 C V RONIN LEGACY, an Indiana bred picking this spot. #7 FAITHFUL KING will look to be the first debut winner for Vanden Berg. She had just a limited sample of first time starters though did finish second here with debut runner Ten Count on September 30^th in a 8f turf Special Weight race.

#5 MAN ON ATTACK was not asked for run (NO_PUSH) after the slow (SLOG) start in his September 17^th race. There was some intention to run here on October 1^st entered and scratched from a $25k turf sprint. They have the 69-day layoff without any published works and Baird was not named on 10/1 and picks up the mount here.

The “Sun” Contention and higher 58 SpeedRate are in play for this race. Quad I Square #9 MISSION BELLE could have the edge of the pacesetters, though overall could be softened up late (especially with the quick #6 SEEKING SECA in the field) and should be considered with the projected shorter odds. #4 WANDA STRONG should be keeping the pace honest as well though as far as class might lack the second call speed, the representative position in Quad III. 

#7 KINGSBURY DREAM should find a favorable trip staking from Quad II and with current form (clean Past 3 Runlines) and OptixFIG in OFR.#5 JUDY’S MS OFFICER has a longshot look in here and could be upgraded as she makes just her second start on the TURF and shown on OptixNOTES a projection to improve with that surface switch.

The Contention and SpeedRate could be enough to set up Quad IV with #3 ACCORDING TO ASPEN, one that has been entered many times this meet and with those scratches gives up recency coming into this race off the 76-day layoff. Price compensation is required and should be there to fit along with her RunStyle and buried form. #1 KATHAAN holds the edge in recency though sits below coming into this race on OptixFIG and must shown a new top to compete for the top spot; a factor to consider with the number on the board.

The route distance and many in this field lacking two-turn form and races makes for a tricky (Red PlotFit) race shape. #7 IMAGINE GOLD could get “lost on the board” despite the Surface/Distance Plot and making just her second start at this level, finding class relief, and with OptixFIG in OFR. She also can be given an upgrade from the October 28^th race given the poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and making up ground (CLOSE) in a race dynamic that did not offer much change in running order from start to finish.

#5 KIMBERLY FRANCES is logical as the favorite off her current form and trip that cost her as the favorite back on November 11^th at the open $5k claiming class level. She could be flattered as show finisher, Queen’s Mission came back on November 20^th to win with a 74 OptixFIG. She will be ridden today by 10-lb bug-rider Rishawn Blanche with the significant weight allowance. #2 WEEKEND PASS could also be upgraded returning from the November 12^th common race back to this restricted $5k claiming level.

#4 FANCY EMPRESS could receive the “wise guy” attention in here going off shorter than the morning line given the connections, form over this course and distance. Her maiden win going back to March last year around two-turns on this main track was a front running score with a career top 74 OptixFIG.

Morning line favorite #1 SAMARITA is logical though she can be a sourpuss. She was caught acting up in the gate in September and October and throwing a fit in the paddock (PRERACE-) on October 30^th, things that are not shown in the running lines/standard past performances. 

#3 MAYSTART is a logical and solid value alternative with consistent OptixFIG in OFR for this race and will find significant class relief from her races here this season, those events all carrying a much higher OFR (race par/purse) than today. Her form fits this level and could be ignored by the public influenced by trainer stats than the horse in this case. 

Based on the Plot and #7 FIELD DAISEY could also be used as value/alternative here as well.

Martinez will use a similar HS Indy-to-Hawthorne pattern from October 9th coming back with #8 DELIGHTFUL BREEZE. She was well intended and ran a “winning” race with B OptixFIG and 84 OptixGRADE as the BOS to just get run down at the wire and set up the race FLOW for #6 PALAGO. Along with positive intent for Delightful Breeze today. She should hold a pace advantage with the edge above the Par Line and over rival #5 RAP STAR. 

#6 PALAGO lacks the pace advantage today compared to rivals #3 ORDAINED KISS and #4 LONG TALL WOMAN all three shown in Quad II. Surface/Distance could move up #7 ORNERY ANGEL in terms of trip and has OptixFIG that fit in OFR to compete on her best day.

A wide open affair to close out the card even with the “longshot” runners in the field: #6 TAP N TWINE not without a chance (OptixPLOT) to take this field gate-to-wire.  On the opposite end of the Plot, #8 MORNING LINE NEWS could move up with the proper change in class wheeling back in just a week from the November 18^th race day with the rough WEATHER conditions. #5 GOSHEN GIRL was given an EX – EXCUSE in her layoff return race two weeks ago with the legit stumble (TROUBLES+) at the start and raced WIDE in hand (NO_PUSH) after. 

More logical types: #7 BELLS OF JOY fits today’s race shape (OptixPLOT) with progressive form and OptixFIG coming back from the layoff this season. #3 FRIEND will also find considerable class relief returning to this circuit and should be key to move her forward (Quad II Square) in today’s’ event. The similar Plot/Shape position for likely favorite, #2 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT.

Value is a little, as the kids say "sus" on #1 FROST WARRIOR with the class drop and surface switch where she requires a top effort and to transfer her current form (Standard Plot) to compete. Her prior dirt OptixFIG sit well below OFR and in line with #4 JAMAICAN TRAFFIC. Trip is key for #9 QUEEN EKATI (Quad IV Square) though has form and improving figures this season as she shows up in this spot for the third start back off the layoff.

4-TAPE TO TAPE has proven to be an effective turf sprinter in limited tries. He narrowly lost his local debut after putting away the rest of the speed. Might last on the lead today despite facing a bunch of speedy rivals. 3-RIDING THE TRAIN could be interesting. Likely longshot is another that raced well in limited turf sprints but he does look like one of the few in this race that will close. Could surprise if a headed speed duel occurs. 11-ON K P can’t get a break. He’s another with some success in turf sprints and he has had to overcome outside posts in most of those races. He drew the 11 once again but can’t be overlooked.

7-FAITHFUL KING has been working like he’s ready. Of course, hard to have a lot of faith in his since his debuting in a maiden claimer. However, this field came up abnormally easy. Can do it at first asking. 4-SNOWMOBILE makes his third start. He finished far back in both of his races but his second was considerably better than his first. The drop into maiden claimers is likely to help. 2-WESLAN’s best race was his first but he was shipped to Keeneland and stretched out for his second race and then placed back into a maiden special when returned here. Now he’s dropping back in for a tag. Improvement seems likely.

There are four runners in here with six wins and a couple with five but we’ll try to beat them with a filly that just broke her maiden in her second start. 1-KATHAAN was barely beaten in her debut as the favorite but returned to make amends as an even heavier choice. Now she’ll be meeting winners for the first time. Her speed figures don’t compare to those of many of her rivals but all those fillies and mares have been trying to get through this condition for years and could be vulnerable once again. Multiple stakes-placed 7-KINGSBURY DREAM should be the one to win this but she has faced better and faced easier and is still trying to get this allowance win. She might do it today but she might not. 9-MISSION BELLE is a versatile runner that just finished second at this level in her first start after getting claimed by this barn. But that race was moved to the main track. Other than top pair, she’s in better form than most. Figures prominently.

5-KIMBERLY FRANCES seems likely to win this. She finished second last two racing at a similar level and, for the most part, the rivals in here are in poor form. Expecting 4-FANCY EXPRESS to display far better speed with the stretch in distance. She had a series of modest drills since her last race in September but still have to figure she’s fit enough to compete with these. 7-IMAGINE GOLD completes the route-sprint-route cycle. She’ll also display better speed today. Her speed figures suggest that she might be the only one possibly competitive with top choice.

1-SAMARITA gets the nod in what appears to be a pretty tough race. Claimed from last, a second-place finish at this level, she moved from one sharp barn into another. As a 3-year-old, she’s still eligible for this condition. Should have dead aim on the front runners late. 6-GHAALEB’S DOMAIN is the best of the speed. She’s another recent claim. She tired late in last and finished behind top choice but there’s a good chance that she’ll lead all the way in this one. 5-STACY ATTACK is one of the more versatile members of this field. She was in too tough in last but wired a similar field in her previous start. However, she doesn’t need the lead to win.

4-LONG TALL WOMAN didn’t show a lot at this level in her first start off the claim but she went on to finish second versus allowance foes in her next start and then beat allowance types in her last. Versatility helps. Likely tough on or from right off the pace. 8-DELIGHTFUL BREEZE could make every pole a winning one. She’s most likely the quickest of these. She was outgunned in an Indiana allowance race but she just missed at this level in her previous start here. 5-RAP STAR won three of her last four races. She might not be the quickest of these and she’s meeting a tougher group today but I always favor horses that find a way to win. 

2-ISABELLACANETELLA will have to be caught. She just missed in last while making her first start in 11 months. She’s taking on quite a few good runners in here but if that last race put the edge on her conditioning, she’ll never look back. Stablemates 6-LILY’S WOOFY and 5-STOPSHOPPINYAMY could go off as co-favorites. Both are in great form and both have the kind of tactical speed that will have them breathing down the neck of top choice. 

2-LUCY’S LOOKING LEFT seems most likely. She’s in better form than the rest and although she was claimed from last, she should still be considered the one to beat. 7-BELLS OF JOY finished in the money in her last two. She couldn’t keep up with top choice in last but wasn’t too far behind. 1-FROST WARRIOR moves to the main track. She races primarily on turf but has shown some speed in previous dirt races. The 10-pound weight allowance she gets from her apprentice rider doesn’t hurt.

Seems to be a good amount of pace in this race as we return to the turf.  Have to think a horse may come from a bit off the pace.  Comiskey Park has been on the dirt in recent starts but if you dig a bit deeper into his past performances you find some solid turf efforts. His best figures have come on the grass and if he can tuck in just off the pace he should come running on in the lane.

Of those who have raced, there hasn't been much shown on the track. A few glimmers here and there but young horses are often inconsistent. There's no value but the works and connections are solid for the Venden Berg debut entrant. Gets a preferred outside draw in this spot and has the potential to cruise in here.

There looks to be some pace in here which should lead to a perfect trip for Kingsbury Dream. She was well back in her last but came flying late. She's still in search of her first victory on the turf but has been knocking on the door, especially at this distance.

This race has the potential to be the first career victory for bug boy Blanche aboard Kimberly Frances but the price is likely to be very short. Worth a look to Imagine Gold as two of her three lifetime wins have come at Hawthorne. The added distance helps as she will likely rate back early and run on in the lane.

Really like the versatility shown by Long Tall Woman last out. Typically a horse that has needed the lead to win, she rated nicely in the second flight in her last and didn't move until the field straightened out. Lezcano seems to be a good fit for her and there should be some pace to chase once again.

A pair of Armando Hernandez trained runners in this spot, both who really run well over this track. It appears the pace will be honest upfront early which may set things up perfectly for Stopshoppinamy. She ran a big race off the layoff in her last and looks for her third win in a row with Tavares riding.

The night's final race also gives the bug Blanche a chance at his first victory. I think it could come here as this runner moves back to the main track. She's been facing much tougher of late and the class relief makes the difference for a barn that has had a solid meet.

RACE 5: The value/equity in this sequence is with #3 MAYSTART to start with the majority use of the tickets surrounding #1 SAMARITA. Based on the Plot and #7 FIELD DAISEY could also be used as value as an alternative here as well. 

RACE 6: Key #8 DELIGHTFUL BREEZE. Back up to #3 ORDAINED KISS, #4 LONG TALL WOMAN and #7 ORNERY ANGEL.

RACE 7: #7 SHARP HERO value key.

RACE 8: A spread with many as shown below and greater use of #3 FRIEND, #5 GOSHEN GIRL, #6 TAP N TWINE, #7 BELLS OF JOY and #8 MORNING LINE NEWS to close out the sequence.  

 Based on the opinion above some suggestions could look (not limited to) as followed:

3/8/7/1-9 

3/3,8/7/3,5,6,7,8 

3,7/8/7/3,5,6,7,8 

3,7/3,4,7,8/7/1-9 

T 1 Saylor 8 Mystic 6 P L Opportunity

P 3 Mach My Kiss 2 A Black Diamond 6 Artistic Meadow

P 6 Nootka 5 Dg Rainrunner 2 Cocktail Carol

T 7 Texaco Man 8 Moon Bridge 1 Andy Over

P 2 Dabarndawgswatchin 9 Settn A Precedent 6 Karma Seelster

P 7 Beyond The Sea 6 Big Lady J 5 Raptors Won

P 9 Mia Culpa 8 Goodnight Irene 4 Trafalgar

P 3 Baby Bonita 1 Queen Of Soul 5 Arizona

P 4 La Petite Grise 2 Charmbo Brie 1 Casimir Swamp Girl

P 9 Tuggingoncredit 1 Mc Kella 4 Chiefs Dream Girl