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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat November 26th, 2022

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:21 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Vostra - 4-1 6 Dessert First - 3-1 4 Lorraine's Legacy - 7-5

Vostra is one of those horses that you wait for its return and then hope there is some value with it. In this one's debut she drew an outside post, got off a step slowly and raced wide the entire trip. Along the backside and into the far turn, she made a very strong move, ranging up at one point to challenge the leaders before the toll of the added distance and premature move caught up to her. She was still able to hold on for 5th in a larger field. Because this field is shorter today we aren't getting the 45-1 that we saw in the debut but anywhere from 4-1 or higher will be well worth playing.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:44 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Ian Glass - 7-2 6 Race Driver - 9-2 2 Never Have I Ever (IRE) - 6-1

Two in here entered for Vanden Berg but Emigh typically is on the one expected to run best. Ian Glass looks to tuck in just behind the leaders and get a perfect trip in this spot. He comes off a strong turf sprint in Kentucky in his last and looks to be sitting on a victory in here.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 4:11 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Triple Chrome - 8-5 6 Mud Island - 5-2 2 Johnny Up - 3-1

You can't always say that bottom level maiden races are key races, but the string of recent races that Triple Chrome comes out of have proven to produce some solid runners in the claiming ranks. The winners of his starts two and three races back both came back to win their following start. For Triple Chrome, the addition of Lasix seems to have turned things around for this one. Despite the short field there is some pace in here to chase as Emigh should be able to allow his mount to rate and run on in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:43 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 War Music - 5-1 6 Makemebelieve - 2-1 4 Verklimt - 9-5

A pretty competitive race despite the short field. The recent race and added distance are why I landed on War Music in here. While the likely favorites could potentially need a start off the rest, War Music sprinted two weeks ago in a an allowance race that was much tougher than what we see here. The last time she ran two turns was in a good third place effort behind Makemebelieve in September. War Music has started twice since that race while Makemebelieve makes her first start back since that win, with spaced out workouts leading into here.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 5:13 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Better Think Twice - 9-2 2 My Brother Cam - 5-2 6 Knievel - 7-2

A curious race here as the ownership group of the 1 and 2 horse have entrants for different trainers in this spot. My Brother Cam being the one that is taking the class plunge today. Went to Better Think Twice off the last race where he found a good spot early and saved ground into the final turn. In that turn he got buried behind a tiring speed and was shuffled back to nearly last. He altered wide in the lane and only had a mild late effort. Have to think with clear sailing he will be right there in here.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:36 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Big Sport - 8-5 4 Kierkegaard - 5-2 8 Time Heist - 6-1

This is a condition that can be hit and miss at times when it comes to field size, pace scenario and ability. This spot doesn't seem to have come as tough as prior editions of this race and there isn't quite the early pace. Big Sport is a specialist at this level and over this track, winning half of his 16 Hawthorne starts. Look for him to clear rather easily in here and never look back.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 6:03 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Indawin - 5-2 5 Princess Consuela - 8-1 3 Hey Hey - 10-1

As much as I want to try to beat the favorite in here it just seems like this race will be the perfect pace setup for Indawin. The only thing that may work against her is the distance as she has never gone 5 1/2 furlongs. There are 3-4 in here that seem to be committed to the front though as the potential for a pace meltdown is highly likely.