Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 CHI TOWN HEAT has the edge over the runners with experience given her posted figures and finding a change in class this afternoon. She will return with a barn change and freshening from the October 21^st Delaware Park event, a race that has held form with the horses running back from that race including one next out winner. 

First time starter, #5 HAPPY QUEST has a live look for Rosin with a steady local work tab and for a barn that is capable with these type of debuting runners. Centeno aboard is another sign of intent, a live rider for this barn. #3 HER TIME IS NOW will also debut here following a vet scratch under similar conditions for the October 29^th common race. It is encouraging she has worked twice since, returns to the level of intent from last month and Vanden Berg won with a debut juvenile maiden claiming runner last week.

Both #6 PRINCESS TONI and #7 MISS MIA find the required class relief from the Special Weight races today. Princess Toni will find a rider change and the blinkers off -- the equipment change could be a positive for her as she has not looked comfortable in blinkers going back to her debut.

The race shape (Plot) should flatter #6 DUST DANCER, the projected race favorite that should lack an excuse in that role. #3 HELA could take up a chasing role shown tracking as a Quad I Square. #1 MISTER CHARMING returns from a “winning” effort (B OptixGRADE) and tough beat at the level on November 20^th. The change in distance puts him off the pace (Quad IV) today though in form (lacking Red in the Past 3 Runlines) and has the strongest late kick (Large Square) in this field. 

#2 USA USA USA fits as a contender in this race off their form, OptixFIG this meet and today’s DROP in class. Trip will be crucial with their RunStyle (Quad IV) though the class and rider change could allow them to race closer to the pace today if required.

The pace does appear Contentious from Surface/Distance with #5 MISS HIGH N MIGHTY, #6 WILDWOOD DREAMER and #9 TENSE also taking up a similar Plot position with the pace honest as those runners sit above the ParLine. Rivelli first time starter, #7 MOM’S KINGDOM could also show speed on debut with Baird in the saddle. #4 JEMEZ FALLS will also debut here for Frank Kirby, a barn that has sent out live runners all meet and tough to ignore the outfit off that current trend.

#7 BEHAVIN MYSELF could return with a pace advantage as shown on OptixPLOT for today’s race shape. They have held their form and OptixFIG this season and exit the November 12^th race, a race that has held form including one next out winner. #1 BUXTERHOOTER also wheels right back from the November 12^th common race and recording a competitive effort on the day finishing alongside Behavin Myself. This is a tougher race that is deep and noted as it starts off the late $25k guarantee P4 sequence to give consideration to others:

#3 KRAMDEN could be the “forgotten” horse with the TROUBLE+ going back to the November 12^th common race and with the turf start last week sitting on top of his past performances to offer value in this race. Excusing those two recent races for logical reasons as shown in the Past 3 Runlines, he was on a progressive pattern with two back-to-back B- OptixGRADE efforts at this level in October that fit right back with today’s field and OFR. 

#4 GAGOOTS could also get lost on the board from his fourth place run, a trip that was compromised at the break (TROUBLE_S) and has upside at this level and from his form this year buried with the October 15^th effort, a stronger race (WIDE MOVE) than it may appear on paper recorded at a higher class condition. 

Longshot #8 DOM CAETANO also will receive some consideration here coming back for Matthews. He was upgraded going into the October 22^nd race making his second start off the layoff (PREP on October 7^th) though failed to get a fall and struggled on the day. Physically he looked off and the connections have provided 42-days to recover and with two return works and a rider change. Dom Caetano has a win back on May 7^th with a similar form reversal in his third start off the layoff and validated that run coming back on May 28^th with another win at this similar restricted claiming level. 

#2 WILD FOX takes a class drop to run here looking to improve off their finishing positions this season. The class change upgrades them in this field, though the NO_FINISH from the race two weeks ago along with the drop and rider change creates some reservations to weigh against the number on the board.

#4 GATE CREW is unproven on the main track and the bigger unknown with the surface switch for this race. His two dirt races going back to 2019-2020 recorded OptixFIG consistent with his turf figures at the time and with Gate Crew transferring his current turf form to this race he stacks right up for today’s par/OFR. 

The pace scenario could find contention with the two Becker runners #6 AHEADOFTHEGAME and #7 FORWARD CURVE drawn outside of #1 HIGH BROW here for Rivelli/Baird. Those runner setting an honest pace could assist the trip for #2 SPALDING STROLL shown on OptixPLOT tracking as a Square right off that Quad I first flight and looking for first run on #3 PINEDALE. Pinedale is proven at this condition as shown off his form in the Past 3 Runlines and with the November 12^th win. There are others in this field that have run “faster” than the sophomore Pinedale to this point and he might be required to step up to their level today.

Block will send out a logical pair in this race. #2 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD is the class of the field, though will have that tested here making her main track debut. Her stablemate, #4 BEYOND PROPER has the edge with the surface/distance experience and in her own right has current form this season coming into this event on the third start of the cycle. #8 GHAALEB THE GREAT fits today’s statebred Optional Claiming condition and with OptixFIG that stack up strongly against the others in this group. While Trail Ridge Road will be tested over the unfamiliar surface, Ghaaleb the Great finds her test back around two turns here for only the second time in this 30^th start.

#7 CHRISTMAS PRESENT was logical in the November 18^th common race and Baird might have been overconfident (TACTIC-) taking off the pace and allowing the race winner, Just Like Mike, an uncontested lead. The shorter distance and race shape was a concern for #3 ART HEIST on the win end that day and is upgraded under today’s conditions. 

#2 FAMA Y DINERO was given a “longshot” look back on November 18^th at this level where he had some trouble (SLOG, TROUBLE-S) coming out of the gate impacting his race that day.  His recorded OptixFIG over this course from his maiden win back in April and his $6250k N2 claiming win on May 1^st stack up on the higher side of today’s OFR.

#5 SHANGHAI SILVER and #10 DEORA STORE fit today’s race shape though lack an edge as they both will require improvement stepping up off their most recent race clearing the N2 condition. Longshot, #9 FINAL CALL is tougher to make a “winning” case for though as a Large Quad IV Square could run on late for those deeper underneath spots.