Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 VALIENTLY DISCREET was very fractious in the GATE and off slow (SLOG) when he debuted two weeks ago in a Special Weight race. They will wheel right back for this spot and with the experience under their belt, they could be a better gate actor and a clean break could show more tactical speed. The pace as it sits on Surface/Distance projects to be Contentious (Fire) with five of the eight runners sharing a similar position in Quad I; and that does not take into account first time starter, #1 TEA WITH LEMON. 

#4 READY MADE could also present some upside today as he makes his first start at the maiden claiming level, second start off the layoff and picks up a key rider change. Those factors could create upside that is not shown on the Plot, whereas #7 ROCKET MAN ATTACK and #8 ANUNKA present favorably on the Plot, though doing so as proven runners with experience at today’s MCL level.

Many in this field will be racing above today’s non-winners of two this year condition. #6 RANK AND FILE fits the condition, checks the boxes as a contender in this race and has been knocking on the door this meet for the win. 

#1 SUPERSTAR DIVA fits at the level and presents upside with today’s race shape as a Quad I Square. #2 PRANCIPANTS wheels back in a week with a positive rider change given the TACTIC- in the November 26^th race costing her a better chance to compete on the day. 

Current form and OptixFIG fit with #4 APRIL’S GEM however the biggest hurdle being the surface switch returning to the dirt where her main track OptixFIG sit below her turf numbers and on the lower end of OFR (par) even with a top effort.

#5 MOMENT TO SHINE comes back for this second start off a BTL debut at Churchill Downs a little more than two weeks ago. They were shuffled in traffic after breaking a step slow and would not be surprised for Baird aboard to show more early speed today. Their debut effort stands over above and beyond the other fillies in this field with racing experience and stand as the horse to beat. 

#6 AWESOME SUNDAY showed some speed working 10.1 at the sale back in June and shows up to make her belated debut. She comes into this race with a series of local works and seems to have held her speed based on the published worktab. #10 THEMISCHIEVOUSONE will make her debut here noting she was scratched from a Special Weight race here back on October 15^th, a race carded for a mile on the turf. She has trained forwardly since as well as work going back to earlier this summer. #1 YAMILE’S also showed some speed moving on her own through a 10.1 move back in the March sale. She has not been as consistent with the works noting longer gaps in the published worktab.

Further scratches to note: #2 LUTION was a vet scratch after getting loose before the race (statebred Special Weight) on October 14^th as the longest shot on the board at 31-1. #8 TU ROYAL and #3 AIR GERRI were also a late scratches back on November 12^th in a Special Weight turf sprint.

#1 JOLIE RULER is logical in the role of the favorite based on her current form and figures this season. She projects to hold her form coming back off the win and first off the claim today. The pace scenario could create and advantage for her former stablemate, #9 COOKIN ROSES shown clear in Quad I above the Par Line. In addition to Jolie Ruler, trainer Reavis will also show up first off the claim with #5 BEIRUT BEAUTY one that peaked in her form cycle over the summer and off the win in September at Belterra Park. She has been entered twice at this condition this meet and suggests intent with the placement to run today.

An excuse could be given to #2 HER GOLD MINE on November 20^th as she was unprepared (GATE) at the start and taken out of her RunStyle. She projects to be more forwardly placed today getting back to her regular way of going as well as the addition of blinkers suggesting further intent.

#5 AGAVE KID projected to run as one of the pacesetters on November 18^th, however that was cut short taking contact at the start, the outside post and the Very Fast early pace that developed in the race shape. Despite the running line and finishing position, Agave Kid showed run in spots as shown in the OptixNOTE especially late with the CLOSE and doing it on their own (NO_PUSH) and projects to IMPROVE off that effort. In addition, he has form at this condition going back to October 1^st with the B- OptixGRADE with the fourth place finish, a blanket for the minors behind the pacesetting winner. 

At this type of level, subtle changes can make all the difference. The Plot position change is in play here for #9 APPLICANT, a major shift as a Quad I/III Square, a favorable position overall and for this particular horse going back through his past performances.

#8 HIGH HERO follows Agave Kid from the November 18^th common race where he also had trouble early (TROUBLE_S) and showed some run (MOVE) at times under rough, cold weather conditions with the races run under the lights. #7 DEVIL’S RULE follows that pattern with a rider change to show intent with Ulloa jumping back aboard as these two together with minor success and subtle trips this year.  

#10 RICHIESGOTSWAGGER also put in a CLOSE on November 18^th, though that trip checks out with his typical RunStyle and is likely to appear more “obvious” with the third place finish and logical off his form and OptixFIG.

For many in this field, the Illinois Debutant Stakes will be a rematch from the Showtime Debutante back on November 12^th. The winner of the race, #9 MOM’S TOWN looked the winner most of the race with Loveberry, her rider that day just waiting for the right time (TACTIC+) to make their move. The 7-1 overlay odds (and likely to lack value today) was in part to #4 CAT ROYALE over bet as the default favorite. While she appeared very live, she was still in a tougher spot making her debut in stakes company. She should benefit from that initial experience and showed she belongs at this level with the overall effort and the connections showing confidence returning to stakes company for validation. #3 JOYZILLA is not to be ignored from that race with the B OptixGRADE and overall progressive form keeps her in the mix today. 

Quality maiden runner #6 MISS RIVER RAT catches the eye with the confident move by the connections to show up here in this stakes race off a BTL debut back on November 12^th. There could have been some confidence in her abilities overall placing her in an open company Special Weight race on debut. She should move forward off the first start and hold her form with the move to the main track and with today’s added ground, the extended sprint distance.

The Contention (higher) today changes for #6 JUST RIGHT MIKE wheeling back from the LONE trip win on November 18^th with presence of others surrounding him in Quad I, sharing the EP RunStyle and the honest 28 SpeedRate. The race shape should set up #3 IMPERIAL MOMENT tracking that first flight from Quad I/II and showing second call tactical speed represented by his position today above the ParLine. 

Should Imperial Moment falter in that role, #5 MOVE ON OVER with his buried form; and #10 IRISH TUFF with his OptixFIG from the Past 3 Runlines stacking up for today’s N4 conditions and OFR can take advantage. Those two should have the edge this evening over Circle #1 HATCHET CREEK in a similar position on the Plot.