« 12/02/2022 12/04/2022 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat December 3rd, 2022

Download as PDF

Stakes Spotlight

Aqueduct Race 8

Post Time 2:14 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
5 Sharapova - 12/1 2 Exotic West - 20/1 3 Battle Bling - 3/1

The four stakes races on Saturday are loaded with talent though not many strong wagering opportunities as the favorites in the juvenile stakes look logical. The Cigar Mile (G1): Zandon fits as the favorite (if O Besos runs he could offer exacta value with Zandon) with Mind Control looking as the alternative and not offering value in that second choice role. The Go For Wand (G3) could present the best betting race of the sequence. #3 BATTLE BLING is logical as the favorite and capable in that role though overall does not hold any strong edge. #5 SHARAPOVA has stakes quality to her and seems intent to run in this race at this time of the calendar year in a one-turn mile, something that is not provided to her out in California. #2 EXOTIC WEST has some stakes form and capable on her best day and when she can keep a rider on her back. She recorded a solid effort in the G3 Stakes back in May at Pimlico and has form here at Aqueduct over today's course and distance along with Davis in the saddle. 

Del Mar Race 5

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
10 Sumter - 4/1 7 Turn On The Jets [IRE] - 5/1

Mandella will send out a pair in this race including morning line favorite, Lane Way. While Lane Way is capable in this race, he seems to prefer more ground than today's 5f distance. His stablemate #10 SUMTER has buried sprint form and form with Prat aboard. They have been training well into this race and could offer value and the right run style for today's course/distance. The trip could be a test for both Whatmakessammyrun and Coulthard with a potential tactical pace edge sitting with #7 TURN ON THE JETS

Del Mar Race 7

Post Time 5:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This is a competitive race with no real standout or value on morning line favorite, #11 LIGURIA taking on that role primarily for the connections. #1 PALOTTA SISTERS is an improving type and carries tactical speed that could present an advantage for this race shape and course where saving ground and the inside lanes are often favorable. #12 RAGTIME ROSE recorded strong figures in both starts and looks to have been pointed to this race making her route/stakes debut off the sprint foundation and steady works off the 42-day freshening. #9 THEBESTISYETTOBE will lose Prat to Liguria for this race though has the benefit of local experience and stakes experience to build off of. 

Del Mar Race 9

Post Time 6:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
3 Celestial City - 4/1 11 Clutch Hitter - 15/1

#3 CELESTIAL CITY has the surface/distance edge of the shippers coming in to make their first start on this circuit. That is noted with #9 Wit listed as the morning line favorite and as far as speed figures has recorded some of the higher consistent figures in this field. He will be tested with distance and class stepping up on both fronts.

As far as the local horses many will return from the Let it Ride stakes including the race winner Handy Dandy. The finish was a "blanket" at the wire and overall not much between many returning here. That includes #11 CLUTCH HITTER the horse to take from that race as he had adversity from the ride (TACTIC-) creating TRAFFIC, TROUBLE and racing against the race flow (X_FLOW) still gaining in the group at the wire. 

Hawthorne Derby winner, #10 SPEAKING SCOUT has been given a 35-day freshening following his place finish in the Twilight Derby (G2) and seemed short that day and off the Hawthorne stakes win. He has not shown much improvement throughout his career and others seem to have taken a step forward including his stablemate, #2 SCRIPT, with racing. 

#8 WAR AT SEA was forced to scratch (vet) from the Twilight Derby (G2) and will return from another three month layoff today. That timing is not ideal though he can be upgraded from his Del Mar Derby (G2) trip and show finish lacking ROOM at a crucial time in the running.