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Fri December 9th, 2022 |
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Jim's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 12:55 PM CST
With the potential for rain on Friday looks to those with wet track form or breeding in spots where you can find it. A short field to open the day and will be curious to see if Becker runs both in this spot. I would expect he does as the purse is worth taking the shot for. Sheza Savage is one with potential to steal this race but this is a pretty big hike in class and she may face enough pace pressure early that she could have to work a bit for position in the opening eighth. Ghaaleb's Honor holds the most class and consistency of the bunch as she makes her fourth start of the meet. She ran a respectable fourth against open-company in her last and has already defeated multiple entrants in this field. She won't provide much value but with a nice pick 5 carryover of over $7k to open the card, this could be a good single to kick off your ticket.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 1:20 PM CST
Despite the short field there looks to be a fair amount of early pace to keep things contentious upfront through the opening fractions. Asti Sky, Storm's Reflection and Storm Born all seem committed to the front which should set things up for the closing kick of Big Blue. Big Blue drops in class today and ran on late behind a lone speed last time out to run second. With the short field he should be able to save ground throughout and get into the clear in the lane. Give a look to C F V Red Nova as this one was claimed off a very lengthy layoff last out. He stretches out and ran a nice ran in his only off track start of his career.
Hawthorne Race 3 - PLAY OF THE DAY
Post Time 1:48 PM CST
The key to a victory for Owen's Pleasure in here could likely be the other Ralph Martinez runner, Go Stormin Girl. Last time out, Go Stormin Girl matched strides with likely favorite Khozie's Ghost every step and Khozie's Ghost just held off the late move of Owen's Pleasure to win by a neck. Martinez claimed Go Stormin Girl out of that race and puts her back in the same spot. Have to think the instructions are to send and the great equalizer in the end could be the mud as Owen's Pleasure has an excellent off track record.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 2:18 PM CST
This race is as much about the horse as it is about following where the rider lands. Last Wish debuts with Lasix off a good pattern of drills for a barn that has the ability to win early. He draws well and looks to be geared up for this start. Additionally, Roman looks to have chosen this one over Snowmobile, a horse who ran well with him in the saddle last out. This has also been the meet where Minnesota-bred horses have had tremendous success, so the breeding cannot be discounted by any means.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 2:48 PM CST
This is not a good bunch by any means but what it may provide is some solid wagering opportunities. There isn't much consistent form out of this field but in digging deeper there are a few things that standout. Truly think Tap N Twine is actually sitting in a great spot in here today. This race is completely lacking of any sort of early pace. If you look back at the start of Tap N Twine two races back, she showed speed with Ulloa in the saddle and hung in well into the stretch in a race that had some pace in it, finishing fifth at 130-1. The top two from that race each won their next out. There's not nearly the pace in here today and Tap N Twine could very easily steal this race with a clean break.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 3:17 PM CST
On paper Nyoman is so much better than this field but all too often he gets a really odd trip that leaves him finishing underneath. At what will likely be a very short price today, I can't take the chance on that happening again, especially knowing that he is somehow winless on the year when he should already have multiple victories. Easter Music could provide a bit more value in here. He loves this track, has won 2 of 3 on an off track and has enough speed to clear and tuck in into the turn.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 3:49 PM CST
The off track could make all of the difference in here as there are a lot of unknowns with many in this field stretching out for the first time. While She's Wandaful has spent the majority of her time on the grass, the start four races back at Canterbury could be the key in here. That was a race that came off the grass as she ran a big race in the mud. She rated closer and had more than enough left in the tank late. While there could be some early pace in this race, She's Wandaful isn't committed to the front and may get a perfect tracking trip.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 4:19 PM CST
This is a really weird race to finish out the card as the likely favorites are either switching distances & taking huge class drops (D'Fever) or have developed bad habits of closing too late (Tale of the Nile). Hoping the track is still wet by the end of the card as it moves a horse like D'archer up in here. Despite 19 lifetime starts, he's made nearly half of his earnings in a pair of off track races, both of which he won. He chased while wide from the 12 hole last out and still ran a solid race. The move to the rail today and a slightly shorter field could make for a shot at a price in the end.

