Handicapper Tips & Picks

This race is a very tough one to figure. Temps will be below freezing so the inside and speed are typically good early in the day. With that said, there are so many unknowns in this bunch due to changes in distance, class drops and overall inconsistency.  Hoping that Mizzen Millions is one that is sent to the top in here. She has the benefits of being lightly raced so she hasn't formed as many bad habits as some others have. She has run longer in her first two starts and she did show a bit of early speed in her last. She takes the class plunge that many others are taking in this race and gets a rider change to Roman but have to hope she rates close and the pace is slow upfront for her to have a chance to run on late.

Almost picked Flying Business in here as she has the best speed of the bunch but her 0-16 record in the win column this year, along with having no excuse for not holding on when she got an easy lead at 5 1/2 furlongs last out is why I stayed away. Time Break will provide no value but is clearly the one to beat. She has a couple of victories on the year, has tactical speed to be able to rate close early, and gets the hottest riding jock in the colony right now in Tavares in the saddle. It's going to be very tough to defeat her.

There's really not a ton of early pace in here for a spot where speed should dominate at 5 1/2 furlongs. Frisco Line had been rating in prior starts but was running on too late. In his last, he was sent from the gate and dueled through the opening half. In the lane, he was the one to emerge clear and run on to the win. I don't see that other pace horse to challenge on the front end in here which should allow for Frisco Line to control things on the front and never look back.

I was on Vostra last time and can't give up after one really disappointing effort. She has gone a route of ground in each of her first two starts. In her debut, she was sent away at 43-1 and was moved prematurely to contend, while wide, against a much more talented field. Despite covering that extra ground she still split the field and was beaten only five lengths in the end. She was given a really odd trip in her last as she got away better from the gate and had the opportunity to make the top in a pace-less race. Despite wanting to go, she battled as her rider kept her back under a hold and fought her through the first three quarters. In the end she gave in an was well beaten. She gets the 10 lbs. bug in the saddle in here and the best route to go with the weight off in the saddle is to send. If allowed to clear the lead and relax into stride, Vostra can be in a perfect position to upset this field.

Another field that isn't great and likely won't provide any value but is likely to produce a single for multi-race players. Coal Town Road is long overdue for his first lifetime victory and while this is a $10k maiden claiming race, this field is the same quality or less than what he was facing for $7,500 or $6,250. He makes his second start since being claimed for a barn that has had a solid meet. He has speed in a race where there appears to be no others to challenge early and did run career best figure last out in his first off the claim with Centeno aboard. Have to think he is every bit of the 3-5 ML but there's no other in here that appears to be able to challenge him.

This is likely the spot where things could turn from what would appear to be all speed to a closers race. This spot has a lot of early pace in it and much of the pace doesn't tend to go on late. While the early part of the card is going to appear to be upfront horses winning time and again, none of those races look to have nearly the amount of front-running style of horses in them. Even at 5 1/2 furlongs, there's the potential for half of this field of 8 to send for the lead. One would have to think they come back to the field in the lane. Last out, Johnny Up was left to chase a lone speed in Mud Island. While unchallenged, Mud Island ran on to win that race and followed it up with another victory last weekend. Johnny Up should be able to save ground and settle off the contested pace in here and I like that Felix is back for the return ride. C F V Red Nova wheels back quickly but figures in this spot as well. He ran well while sprinting in the race he was claimed out of and that was off a layoff of over a year. Don't dismiss his chances to run on late either.

Behavin Myself really looks to be the one to beat in here but some things jumped out about that last race from Hatchet Creek. Hatchet Creek is 10/16 ITM over this track and has typically been a sprinter. The stretch leaves some questions but that last start was a strong race and it coincided with the removal of blinkers. This barn tends to pop at times and make sure the watch the board as there have been a few instances this meet of horses taking a lot of action early for this trainer and following it up with a big race in return.