Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 MIZZEN MILLIONS returns to make her second start off the layoff with the class drop to the maiden claiming level. If there is a time to present a move forward, this is it. She can be upgraded with the return race chasing wide up close to a solid pace before losing ground. 

Thurman returns with the pair, #6 WHITE CASHEL and #8 SURE SHOT ANNIE from December 2^nd, a day where the WEATHER impacted the results. Sure Shot Annie can be upgraded further as she was heavily backed from the assigned morning line to suggest intent and compromised taking KICKBACK from the rail . That race this month gives her another look back at the lower $6250 maiden claiming level could present a move forward today under similar conditions with back OptixFIG above today’s OFR.

More obvious with #5 BALIMOS holding the edge over #3 PRETTY IN PRADO and #7 EVIE JEAN from that same common race; though will be tested with the route/two-turn distance today. #1 TANGO CITY could find the class change to her benefit though has struggled on the main track in the past and as a six-year-old mare does not hold much upside and one that requires the day to be her day.

Looking at the dynamic (OptixPLOT) #2 FLYING BUSINESS could have things her own way on the lead with the clear Quad I position. That pace edge is required for her to compete recognizing the lack of finish represented by the Circle and the NO_FINISH Keyword on December 3^rd. 

#5 TIME BREAK could find the right trip and first run on Flying Business. She projects to take up a stalk position alongside #7 SILVERA and #8 LA GUERRERITA (Standard Plot) with Time Break showing more finishing ability (Square) of that set in addition to higher OptixGRADE/FIG to present as a logical contender. 

Some positive intent could be in play for #6 NOCTURNAL MISSION returning with a live rider change in this second start off the layoff and projecting move forward from the WIDE trip on November 27^th.

#1 SUMMER LOVIN and #3 IRISH HALO have form at this level on par to compete with a top effort, though the tendency to break slow (SLOG) has been problematic to work a trip from off the pace – Quad IV. The “SLOG” has also been present for #4 HOPPESTRY could compete and get into the mix running back to her October 9^th race. 

Noting the “Red” PlotFit and that should be considered while the visual seems straight forward. Looking at the Plot, the pace should be contentious with #5 SHANGHAI SILVER in form and keeping #8 PO BOY honest with those two taking up a Quad I role. Other in-form runners, #4 FRISCO LINE stepping up in class from the N2 win on November 27^th; #6 DEORA STORE wheeling back in two weeks looks to stalk that pair as Quad II Squares. While any from this group could win, there could be more to this race outside the box.

With the “Red” PlotFit one can get “creative” with runners that do not necessarily standout on the Plot and should be overlooked to offer value and required compensation: #2 FAMA Y DINERO has shown progression with each start returning from the layoff. This will be his third start of the cycle and some excuses could be present with both the November 18^th and December 2^nd race days compromised by poor WEATHER conditions. He has back numbers and form from the spring that makes him a contender here on repeat.

The distance cut back (SHORTER) has been projected for #7 BETTER THINK TWICE (contender) going back to the start of the season. He will find that change today to sprint and could be just what he needs to compete here paired with buried form that also fits on par. 

#3 KNIEVEL will also cutback in distance and wheel back in just 6-days. While he has current form at the level, clean Past 3 Runlines, the intention is not as clear for this race with the timing and distance change and could be a case they are running here with just a few race days left in the meet and no real risk to take a shot and run. 

Morning line favorite, #3 LORRAINE’S LEGACY is logical in that role with consistent OptixFIG and improving OptixGRADES as she makes her third career start. While she fits those obvious factors should have her as a short-priced favorite and with a deeper dive through the field she might not have that much of an edge to support the price discrepancy with others. 

Going back to the October 15^th race, Lorraine’s Legacy ran in a common race with #6 VOSTRA with the two both recording the same C+ OptixGRADE and 64 OptixFIG. Vostra was upgraded of the pair with the BTL effort even with the other factors being identical. Vostra did not have a chance to run her race with the trip as detailed in the OptixNOTES shown in the Past 3 Runlines on November 26th and overall still projects a move forward. 

#1 SASSY KATIE finds a class change shifting to this circuit and from the statebred level at HS Indy this year. She is another on a progressive OptixGRADE/FIG pattern to suggest she can transfer her form and compete here shown with a similar Surface/Distance Plot position/shape to Lorraine’s Legacy. #5 LIL CARRIE D also returns to open Special Weight company with added ground that could be to her benefit based on the visuals (STRETCH) on the track.

As individuals, #4 SHI O’SHI and #8 ALMAFUERTE stack up as contenders with speed (OptixFIG) on par (OFR) for this race and capable of showing early speed (Quad I) and finishing (Square) ability. As far as handicapping the race, both could get involved with each other early and play a role with the “Fire” Contention and higher 50 SpeedRate.

That scenario could upgrade #7 HER GOLD MINE, one that is arguably not the “best horse” in today’s race though could find the dynamic and progressive form to be just enough if lucky enough. 

This is a competitive race where value should be present and required to play. That starts with the assessment of #2 KANITHAPPEN certainly capable though has been flattered by the race FLOW in his recent sprint races and lost ground late. In addition, his new connections will also place him slightly stepping up in class as another factor to consider with the number on the board. 

The Plot position/shape should be taken subjectively with #4 K C’S FIRST B M W as losing the rider at the start on both June 15^th and August 11^th impacting his Plot here. His maiden win effort in July was solid and validated with a competitive race, B- OptixGRADE, and 73 OptixFIG at this level and returning from the 85-day layoff on November 4^th. His buried early speed could present a pace advantage today as the lone “E” RunStyle horse with a moderate 38 SpeedRate - a longshot threat.

The OFR for that November 4th race was a higher 86-78 OFR than the November 26^th event with a 83-75 OFR at the same race conditions. #7 JOHNNY UP ran in both races and fits logically here with progressive form at the level in his third start of the cycle. Trip could also land him in the right time and placed based on the visual representation (Plot) of the race dynamic. #8 C F V RED NOVA had the long 536-day layoff returning on November 26^th and should have the fitness required coming back to a sprint from the route race last week and for his this start back off the layoff. 

#5 HURTS SO BAD is also worth keeping on the radar as he finds the class relief (DROP) exiting the December 12^th allowance, his first start in against winners. Even though he will be required to take on winners again here, isolating his efforts when running for the maiden claiming tag, those races stack up on par for today’s event.  

A competitive race to close out the card with potential prices to keep in the mix: #1 NOT VERY GENTLE is upgraded from both the TROUBLE+ trip on November 12^th and racing against (X_FLOW) the dynamic on a quicker 8-day turnaround on November 20^th. 

Tavares picking up the mount on #2 GAGOOTS could be the difference maker given his “trips” this season going back to October 15^th, a competitive race at the higher open claiming class level. 

The Standard (current form) Plot shows the “grouping” of horses and the “bunched” up scenario could create a trip from off the pace for #5 IRISH MAJOR; one that does require price compensation as a deep closer though an upgrade in the exotic plays. #6 DELFT BLUE given the IMPROVE designation with the trip and 10^th place run on November 26^th where he was compromised at the start and showed more run than the line and finishing position suggests. The surface switch is a major unknown and follow a similar thought process with the meet coming down to the wire and running where available.