Handicapper Tips & Picks

Quinonez has a solid hand in this race sending out a pair of runners: #2 WATCHING THE WHEELS will find subtle class relief in her third start of this meet to the restricted $5k claiming level. She also reunites with Santiago, the rider that executed a PERFECT winning trip on November 12^th and also had been key in a pair of FanDuel races back in June. #3 LINDALOUIMAGE also finds a class change from her races here this season and the restricted claiming win for $6250k on November 6^th stacks up with a similar par/OFR to today.

Outside of that duo, #6 BOWS N LACE returns to make her second start of the form cycle and with that same subtle class change in the open company claiming event two weeks ago. Bows N Lace turned in a solid effort all things considered and noting the race winner, Kimberly Frances, a “much the best” favorite winning from off the pace. 

Morning line favorite, #2 EASTER MUSIC is capable in this race, though is one that does not have any strong edge outside of current form. Trip also must be factored as often he can turn in his best run from off the pace and that comes into play when assessing value. Those same value concerns with #5 APPLICANT given his recent GATE issues that can be a sign of declining form. #7 CHOPPER had some buried form that had him competitive and overlooked at 80-1 on December 3^rd and projects to be much shorter today. 

Looking for alternatives takes some creativity: #6 OLSON throughout his career has recorded strong figures that fit on any surface and with Haran bringing him back today second off the 244-day layoff with class relief and a positive rider change, improvement could be projected. #1 BORN AGAIN GEORGE could also find his peak effort here in the third start off the layoff and showing some positive intent with Felix back aboard. They were paired up on November 18^th in that 84-day layoff return with poor WEATHER conditions and overall was not asked (NO_PUSH) to compete after a TROUBLE_S rough start and WIDE trip.   

Longshot, #8 HIGH HERO has number from earlier this year that would make him a strong contender in this group returning with those effort. This fall/winter season has not been the same for him, though has shown some run in spots and with a subtle “every other” pattern could be sitting on improvement here along with the flow upgrade from December 3^rd..

#3 RIVER FINN could be a bit of a "stab" in this race though as far as class he has the edge over the others based on the placement of his races this year and the others in this field showing their more competitive races in restricted claiming company. With taking a “stab” the compensation is required on the board and should be there in this case. 

#1 CARTE BLANCHE is also deserving of a mention with the projected attention off his recent race record. There could be some concern that he peaked in his form cycle with the pair of wins and the visuals (PERFECT, HARD) in the manner of the way those races were run, however the connections have given him 42-days to recover off those starts and should be to his benefit. 

#5 WILD FOX and #7 YAK could battle for favoritism in this race. Wild Fox should get attention off the December 2^nd trip where his start was compromised as he was unprepared as the gates opened and arguably unfair start. With that said, he showed run to recover though did flatted out late, which has been a habit throughout his races this season.

#9 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN moved up with the class relief to run at this claiming level and will look to build off those races stretching out in distance here. The morning line seems shorter than what will be required and reasonable to expected to drift from the public reaction on race day keying the off odds in those November events. 

The morning line could stick on #2 STORM’S REFLECTION today as he was favored under similar conditions here on November 20^th and with Emigh in the saddle today for Perez. The barn will also return with #6 DARE GOES DA DEVIL one that has shown run in spots and some intent this season without much luck. That could carry right back into this event with the rider change and looking to cover their pace bases with Storm’s Refection up front and Dare Goes Da Devil from off the pace. 

Morning line favorite, #8 FUTURE VISION does project to fall into that “chalk” role based on his recent finishing position. Looking at the OptixPLOT he fits, however does not seem to hold any strong advantage over others in a similar position including, #4 MINISTRY OF ART.

#3 SHARP HERO was upgraded with buried form and showing run in a strong stakes event back in November at Churchill Downs. Her class took over and was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) winning here on November 25^th and will look to pair up wins back under similar conditions keeping up her eligibility and protected status. 

#7 PLUS CHIC was no match for Sharp Hero last month, though can be upgraded from her trip stumbling (TROUBLE_S) at the start and making a RUSH to the early lead and into a solid pace for that forward position. #5 HONEY MUG will be tested here with a slight class rise (similar for #2 KEEPMEINTHE MOMENT) coming back from the N1 allowance win. Comparing the two, Honey Mug has the benefit (and likely value) of recovery time with some hidden back numbers from the spring to support her moving forward today.

This is a interesting race where a scenario especially with the Standard (current form) Plot visuals and seven of the ten runners in this field positioned to the left of the y-axis. #1 GOING WITH STYLE is borderline as part of that group though finds some Surface/Distance separation. He also carries some upside returning to this circuit and route distance showing some run in spots with the WIDE trip and without the right handling (TACTIC-) in his October 28^th layoff return effort. 

#10 STALLONE is part of that Quad I group though could hold some value compensation to keep in the mix keying off the Surface/Distance Plot position and even on Standard above the Par Line. The race shape and longer double-digit odds of #2 ANDREW THE GIANT and #7 PINEDALE keep those runners on the radar as Quad IV Squares. 

As individuals, both #5 FIRST MASAMUNE and #9 GITA’S LAD fit with their form this season and especially with the class DROP that has been projected on Gita’s Lad. With that said and noted with Plot/race dynamic both runners return on a one week turnaround and intention here could also be questionable from the December 11^th common race.

#3 CATCHUSIFYOUCAN has run to her name this season and will likely try a similar approach (Plot/Quad I Square) showing up first off the claim, stepped up in class today for Becker. There is a back up plan with stablemate, #4 WILDWOOD BYE coming back to allowance company from the December 9^th race and returning to the sprint distance to see her return to a stalk-and-pounce role – Quad II Surface/Distance Square. 

#1 MAUREENLOVESFRANK would require a lot of racing luck to win, though has been consistent at this level with the OptixGRADES/FIG this year to keep in the exotics mix. #6 STORMY EMPIRE and #9 IGGY BIGS are quality statebred fillies though find their class test in this race both back in against open company. The class rise is also in play for #10 JOLIE RULER one that could be flattered off the favorable (Red Keyword) trips and those races playing a role in the Plot position shape today. #7 CHROME ATTACK has some allowance form to compete on this circuit, though appears to prefer the turf and tested to run those top efforts again on the main track.

The card will close out with a full field and should present some value given the competitive nature of the race. The class drop and some excuses with the WEATHER conditions on November 18^th and December 4^th could upgrade #6 RUNNERS HEAT from those recent running lines and finishing position. Trip could also move her up based on the Plot/Quad I Square with lower SpeedRate for this race. 

As far as the pace, the lower SpeedRate could upgrade #2 MY LADY SLEW (bias aided maiden win), #3 SCAPITURE (170-day layoff/first start against winners) and #10 MUD HUT (no value) though that pair must still battle the Fire Contention rating and their individual hurdles as well. In that scenario, the “Fire” rating assists, #9 QUEEN EKATI upgraded on the Plot and should hold required value with those other runners in the group. In addition, her (Queen Ekati) form this season could be upgraded further with the sneaky November 25^th effort. That 4^th place finish was with ground loss and against the dynamic (X_WIDE, X_FLOW) and still continued to run on GALLOP+ after the wire. The connections are lower percentage all around and price compensation is still required especially returning without a rider change.

#4 SEQUAYA is upgraded on Surface/Distance returning to a sprint and also returning with a rider change following the TACTIC- on December 4^th. She has a lot of other questions surrounding her overall though the number should again remain high in the double digits. #11 GOSHEN GIRL could also be sitting on a repeating form cycle pattern in the third off the layoff, a similar pattern going into her maiden win back on June 25^th. She recorded a 64 OptixFIG with that maiden win, a number sitting in OFR to compete and in line with her rivals, #1 AIR WALKER and #8 MORNING LINE NEWS. #5 MAIDEN ROCK also fits in that OptixFIG group and could improve given the poor handling (TACTIC-) in her recent races, though intent and trip come into play showing up here in a sprint.