Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 DASH TO THE CASH is a longtime maiden, though could just land himself in the right time and place to breakthrough the condition in the closing days of 2022. He comes into this race with OptixFIG in today’s OFR and current B- OptixGRADES showing consistency and higher than others at the Special Weight level.

Both #1 WILDWOOD DREAMER and #8 KISS N BIZ will shift to take on colts and geldings with the value siding with the latter.

#9 ROCKET MAN ATTACK is upgraded on OptixPLOT as a Quad I Square above the ParLine for today’s race shape. Class wise this could be seen as a lateral move exiting open company maiden claiming races this season. He has plenty of races to date that make him tougher to trust on the win end with value required even with the pace edge. The lightly raced, #7 KRUELESS still must show more though given a mention as there has been subtle race-to-race progression.

#8 FIGHT ON holds the class edge with the drop coming back to Hawthorne and the main track. Those changes upgrade him in today’s field and for today’s dynamic as a solid Quad I Square with the lower 12 SpeedRate. 

Looking for value: #6 EMOJI GUY comes into this race with buried form that could be overlooked judging his running lines and finishing positions alone. He has a clean Past 3 Runlines without “Red” and a sneaky good effort (B- OptixGRADE) with the December 9^th race finishing in a BLANKET at the wire. #1 FIXICO also has buried form going back to October 16^th with TROUBLE and projected to IMPROVE going forward. A case can be made he has not had that chance to step forward with the poor ride (TACTIC-) and off track along with his usual gate issues (SLOG) and WIDE trip.  

#2 BORN AGAIN GEORGE found his old form recording a strong 87 OptixFIG in the December 18^th win. They will wheel right back once again in this third start this month and while a repeat effort has him competitive right in line with FIGHT ON value should be considered as he projects to be the shortest number on the board in this races this year. 

As a Quad I Square with the lower SpeedRate, #8 HIGH BROW could survive the “Fire” Contention and stay on as the “best of the speed” in today’s race shape. With that said, he has benefit from PERFECT trips this year and that is playing a role in his Plot position/shape that could open the door for others.

#4 AHEADOFTHEGAME was upgraded on a progressive pattern heading into the December 2^nd race, though unable to run his race that day given the ride (TACTIC-) including ground loss under tougher WEATHER conditions and can be upgraded today. #7 SPALDING STROLL was a bad actor in the GATE back on December 2^nd and the cold air and heavy KICKBACK impacted his trip. He has back numbers and form to compete at this class level. The winner of that December 2^nd event, #6 PAPA’S LUCKY SEVEN was able to avoid the kickback and showed a big CLOSE under a smart ride. They will return here off that new top OptixFIG and with a rider change and value should be considered with that change as well as a deep closer where trip, pace and timing is still key. 

The Plot shows a significant pace advantage for #4 DUST DANCER clear in Quad I above the Par Line. That edge is supported with form this season holding OptixFIG in OFR and lacking “Red” in the OptixNOTES/Past 3 Runlines.

#3 DEORA STORE could end up a shorter price (no value) in this race based on speed figures and finishing positions, though lacks a pace edge over others in here and will be stepping up in class from the restricted claiming events this season. His presence in this race taking wagering support could allow for some value to shift over to #5 SENOR MIKE, a recent maiden Special Weight winner that has shown progress and improvement with each start. #1 DEMAND RANSOM has class concerns though is on an “every other” pattern coming into this race with his OptixFIG from both November 6^th and December 2^nd stacking up in today’s OFR. 

Overall there is not much between many in this field where the board, on track visuals can be used to make decisions on play. #1 TU ROYAL and #10 CAT ROYALE are tough to split with a similar RunStyle (Quad 1) and form coming into this race. They fit with their tactical speed and class with Tu Royal running against open Special Weight on December 3^rd - and Cat Royale making her first start in maiden company for today’s conditions. The class change will also be in play for #9 JOYZILLA one that could even hold a a subtle class edge recording a B OptixGRADE in the Showtime Debutante last month. Her off the pace running style has played a role in her finishing positions and factored into her still running at this level. 

#11 LUTION is worth a mention coming back for her second start. She showed run in the December 3^rd debut closing inside (SAVED, CLOSE) though after the wire the rider lost control falling off though not before making a lot of contact with the inner rail bouncing around. This is mentioned with the physical nature of that race and something that was not picked up in the short comment or chart and is important public information. 

The few non statebred runners in this field could have some edge with intention given eligibility: #5 HAPPY QUEST stepping up in class through did show in the December 2^nd debut all things considered. #6 THIS IS ANFIELD. She did not show much in her October debut (C OptixGRADE) at HS Indy, though that race held a higher OFR to today’s event and did produce two next out winners. #8 TAVERN will cut back to a sprint today and has shown poor gate habits (VSLOG, SLOG) in both starts this season.

The race shape can upgrade #11 C F V RED NOVA (especially on Surface/Distance Plot) sitting a trip stalking right off projected pacesetters, #6 COAL TOWN ROAD and #7 THE LAST FACT. Some value should sit with C F V Red Nova falling into a similar trip as #10 TRIPLE CHROME, one that has finished behind others in this field. #4 EVIDENCE has softer speed figures this season to offset the number on the board, while some upside in this spot showing up in form and positioned as a smaller Quad I Square. 

#1 TAPIT SAM fits as a contender recording a B OptixGRADE at this level on December 10^th and holding form this season keying off the BTL effort in his November 12^th race despite the 5^th place result. 

The Plot does not appear favorable for #8 TEA AFTER BALLET as a Quad IV Circle, though the change to a sprint (SHORTER) from the route races this season is on his side to support as a longshot in this race. By contrast, the “shorter” distance of this race could present a hurdle for #3 CLASSOFSIXTYSEVEN and #9 DARE GOES DA DEVIL in terms of trip cutting back to a sprint. As individuals they have shown run at times this season and still looking for that first win of the meet.  

#7 SIVAKO debuted over the main track back in June and recorded an OptixFIG in line with the turf figures that followed to support him shifting his form back to the dirt for this race. He has a class edge from those Kentucky races earlier this year and with a competitive effort in the local WIDE trip show finish on September 30^th. His stablemate #1 FEVER NATION leads off the statebred group and one that has shown progress race-to-race. 

Intent also looks in play for Sivako keying off his local works returning from the two month break. Some positive works could be projected with #8 RICKY’S BEST showing up for his first start. The intent to debut on this circuit extends back to the spring with a mix of speed and stamina in the published works. The work tab is not as consistent for #9 AMERICAN MOON going out for Rivelli, a barn that has stronger debut numbers and likely to receive attention of that in this race. The work tab is a little more consistent for his stablemate #13 ACT A FOOL; one that will require racing luck to draw in off the AE and with the outside post should he participate.

Hernandez appears to have #8 COMISKY PARK back in form, something that had been some concern leading up to November 25^th going off the gate issues and visuals. His top form stacks up with OptixFIG on par and of the group has consistently recorded some of the higher figures in this field and done so at today’s allowance condition. Trip could also be on his side give today’s race shape. He has shown tactical speed in the past, a change from today’s Quad II/IV Square (finishing ability) Plot position. 

The “Fire” Contention is supported by the OptixRPM showing seven of the nine in this race sharing the E or EP RunStyle. #9 HELA shows the least amount of changes from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance Plot remaining as a Quad I Square in both conditions. That shift comes into play for both #2 ON K P and #7 BASEBALL POLITICS as far as shape (finishing ability) and Plot position (PC RunStyle) for #5 LAKE MILLS.

#8 DREAM KEEPER is logical in this race returning to make his second start off the layoff to the conditions of the BLANKET finish back on November 4^th. His class and form stack up consistently at this level. 

Tough to ignore, #9 DANVILLE with his Large Square presence on the Plot. Class will be tested coming off the wins this season stepping up to a higher allowance condition and purse structure here. By contrast, #4 DYNABLUE has the OptixFIG and class for today’s allowance condition, however, has struggled to transfer that form required to compete to the main track and surface remains his main hurdle again today.

The “wild card” #5 DREAM ISLAND returns from the 419-day layoff with just one published work this season. Going back to last year, he showed progression race-to-race and numbers recorded here at Hawthorne that stack up in today’s OFR. He could still present a move forward keeping in mind those figures recorded in his juvenile season and comes back with maturity from the break for this race.