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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat December 31st, 2022

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 12:55 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Runaway Jack - 5/2 6 Boat Song - 7/5 8 Ancient Man - 5/1

Tough one here with a pair of Robertson runners in this spot. Boat Song is the likely deserving favorite off his last couple but also there are gaps in the starts and some inconsistency. I wouldn't be completely surprised if he is a scratch. Runaway Jack has worked consistently coming into this debut, most recently posting a good gate drill on December 22. Of those who have raced in here aside from Boat Song, they haven't shown much so have to figure this one takes his share of action.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 1:48 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Rainy Mountain - 6/1 9 Quilting Party - 7/2 4 Sheza Savage - 4/1

Rainy Mountain got an incredible pace setup ahead of her last out as a first timer was quarter horsed away from the gate, blowing any chances for itself as well as Yankee Agate in that spot. Rainy Mountain was the beneficiary as she tucked in just behind the pace and ran on nicely in the lane. The pace should be honest upfront in here as she is likely to get a very similar trip to her last out. The price should be right.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 2:18 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Alpine Ghost - 8/1 4 Mud Island - 9/2 2 Tee Burns - 4/1

The 6 1/2 furlongs may be the difference maker in here as Alpine Ghost could be in a perfect spot. He rated back nicely and ran on late in  his last, just missing in the end. The added 16th off that start should help as there is a good amount of early pace in this race. Tee Burns could be a big threat as well but Felix choosing Cindy's G Man over Tee Burns scared me off that one.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 2:48 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Jealous Eyes - 9/5 3 Boone's Path - 7/2 4 Awesome Willy - 9/2

The distance was the deciding factor for me picking Jealous Eyes over Boone's Path. Jealous Eyes just missed when going the mile in Indiana last out after holding a lead in the lane. He makes his second start off the layoff in here but should be able to rate close as there isn't much along the lines of early speed. He's overdue for a victory as the only concern is that he doesn't hang in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 3:17 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Hot Dame - 5/1 10 On a Tour - 9/2 4 She's Wandaful - 12/1

Despite the large field there isn't a whole lot of pace in this race. Hot Dame made the top last out and never looked back, extending her lead in the lane. There is the potential for her to scamper away once again early and repeat that performance.  She has three wins over the track and may still sneak away at a decent price.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 3:49 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Carte Blanche - 2/1 2 Ioya Again - 4/1 7 Pistol Box - 8/1

Carte Blanche has been excellent all meet long and just seems to be getting better and better. He has the speed to make the top if wanted but also has the ability to rate back early and run on in the lane.  Felix has ridden him very well in his last couple of starts and should put him in a perfect spot once again.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 4:19 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Big Sport - 8/5 2 Kierkegaard - 7/2 1 Dark Hedges - 9/2

There doesn't appear to be any beating Big Sport in here. He has the speed to clear and should have little issue doing so. He easily handled these in his last and has a great record at the distance and over the track. Expect him to be a winner at a short price once again.

Hawthorne Race 10

Post Time 5:19 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
9 Almafuerte - 6/1 8 Samarita - 4/1 3 Foggy Kitten - 7/2

I've always liked Almafuerte and while she has yet to win this meet, she always puts forth a good effort. I like that Santiago gets the call today. Look for her to rate close early and let's see if she can finish in here.

Hawthorne Race 11

Post Time 5:49 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Tap N Twine - 6/1 5 Manhattan Legacy - 4/1 4 Stacy Attack - 5/1

I liked her last time so let's try again with Tap N Twine. In her last she was able to make the top early and draw away in the lane. Even though there is a full field here there really is very little in regards to early pace. Let's see if she can repeat.