Handicapper Tips & Picks

A competitive race to open the card and keeping that in mind should #8 TOWN CHAMP go off at a shorter number in this race where a top effort and trip is required from the outside post. Along with trip; #2 FIRERY TALE will have to work a trip from the opposite end (Quad IV Square) of the field with value required overall.

#3 DRENA'S STAR can be upgraded with the class relief and off the trip (TACTIC-) making MOVE in the competitive effort on December 10th. #1 OTIS OTIS OTIS could also benefit from the class relief exiting that same starter allowance last month where more was expected from him out of the connections and they will make some subtle changes here. 

This race starts with the assessment of #2 HOUSE WRECKER and #6 DAWNLAND taking the big class drop from the common 12/18 race running for the $20k tag that day. Both horses were claimed out of that event and subpar effort especially for Dawnland favored that day and likely to be shorter of the two for Brad Cox here. House Wrecker could present upside even with the drop going off the claim for Riley Mott, a barn that is "hungry" for a win and prefer she has been given a couple works and a live rider in another angle separating these two. 

#9 PROUD VICTORIA wheels back in 16-days for this second start back off the layoff and in the right spot for her abilities and a lateral class move from the 1/6 statebred claiming event. #1 VISUAL MAGIC is a bit of a "wild card" though could suggest intent for the connections bringing her right back in a week with the cut back to the more familiar sprint distance. She has back numbers that stack up on par with form over this course. 

The quality of the 12/30 race that many here return from could be "weak" for the level and suggest looking outside that group. #7 BLAME THE TOLL is the new face shipping in from the Fair Grounds for her seconds start and landing on this circuit with the added ground picking up Bejarano to suggest intent and improvement. In addition, the winner of the 12/22 race, Non Violence came back to finish a credible place run with an improved OptixFIG in an allowance route last weekend. Stewart will also show up with #1 AMENSET one that has numbers that fit on her best day though has yet to put forth a competitive "winning" type race for the level and gives up recency off the 149-day layoff. 

Sophomore, #6 NO GUILT has shown run in each of her three starts with consistency and speed figures that stack up with her older rivals. She can be upgraded further running against the dynamic (X_FLOW) on both 11/26 and here on 12/31 also noting a slow start (SLOG) from her on both occasions. 

#2 ELUSIVE BELLE is a new face that could pop up making her belated debut as a four-year-old today suffering some setbacks along the way for Asmussen. 

The class drop appears the right move for #5 HARD TO COME BY based on his races to date with consistent speed figures and efforts on the track, just not quite to the Special Weight level. There is further upside in this third start off the layoff and from the 12/31 TROUBLE checking into the first turn. Value should hold especially with #4 PROPELLANT in the race one that took money in both starts, has not shown much progression and while they will run for a tag today, the class par (OFR) is higher than the Remington Park MSW events. 

#7 DOUBLE STRIKE will return to the maiden claiming level where he debut and was claimed to suggest some intent returning here for his second start of the meet. #9 BUBBA CAN DANCE will also find the class change from that 12/31 common race to project some upside with the rough (TROUBLE_S) start and WIDE trip.

#6 BREAD WINNER was reclaimed by Amoss to suggest some intent to return here. They will require a top effort as this is a step up in class and even from his races at Churchill Downs when racing for this barn. #10 DARYL'S BOLT will show up on this circuit for Hartman (live barn) with figures on par, however will be required to transfer those races to the main track, two turn distance and work a trip from the outside post. 

#6 RUN FEARLESS takes the class drop looking for the right spot to return both horse and trainer to the winners circle. The class drop is less of a concern noting prior to the Special Weight win last season, her limited maiden claiming starts and efforts suggested that was the right spot for her. 

#10 DERBY DAY LASSIE will find some class relief and fitness after setting the pace in the 12/17 allowance coming off the layoff and should move her up naturally in today's event. #11 BIG ON BROADWAY also projects to improve with the 1/6 race under her belt and could be overlooked off the subtle trip (TACTIC- coming back with a rider change) and taking KICKBACK as well. 

Cline will return with both #2 MISS DUTTON and #4 HALF SCOUT two runners that project to improve off their return this meet. With that said, a top effort is required for these two that overall are on the softer side compared to others in this field. That extends to #3 SHE'S HAMAZING another with upside exiting the 12/11 race (PREP) though requiring a top effort and trip with her off the pace running style to win today. 

#4 VOBISCUM returns today to make his belated second start and with a significant drop in class on return. The aggressive move should have him placed where he can compete and also offer enough "bait" to setup a claim opportunity. As far as his debut last April, he showed run overall and off the visuals and slow start suggest he has more early speed. 

#5 STRICKLAND projected to improve with the slight drop on 12/11 and has some issues early (TROUBLE_S) and showed run making an inside move to build off of for today's race. 

#7 LITTLE FRAPPUCINO and #9 SHOTGUN UP return from the 1/6 common race and overall not much between the two in terms of effort all things considered. While LITTLE has more natural early speed he could have run his "top" on the day whereas a move forward could be present for SHOTGUN UP as this will be his second start of his form cycle. 

Today's race shape is tricky as there are not many true E/EP types though the higher SpeedRate (OptixPLOT) suggests an honest pace. The pacesetters, #3 MAHOMEY could hold the recency edge (and upside from racing in the 12/10 rain) over #5 DATA STORM one coming back today off the three month layoff.

#7 DINNER AT CRUMPIES will also give up recency returning from the 118-day layoff here. With that said, there should be price compensation based on that break and his races prior to the layoff that are overshadowing his Oaklawn form that fits here with the right run style on his best day. 

#2 ROLLING FORK projects to find public attention wheeling back from the win and solid speed figure on 1/7. With that said, this is a tough spot to come right back in two weeks later where he requires pairing up efforts to win right back. #8 TWISTED DIXIE has a similar off-the-pace run style and could be sitting on his top effort today showing progressive form/figures into this race in the third start off the layoff.  

The class drop today appears the right move for #2 MAJOR GENERAL as one that has held his form though not quite to the stakes/higher allowance level of competition. The drop again is less of a concern noting he has not shown much progression since his juvenile season and is looking for the right spot for his abilities. 

#8 COSMO seems logical returning under similar conditions with added ground and off a competitive race here on 12/30 for Diodoro. Moquett has #5 PRODIGIOUS BAY cross entered in a different race over the weekend and could see him competitive should they land here with his run style and ability to show early speed. 

#4 GOLDEN LUNA could hold a pace advantage with his early speed in today's race shape. Intent is also in play noting they were entered in a similar event unable to draw in back on 1/1.

#12 ROMANCER has been given the 44-day freshening since the 12/10 start - a BTL effort with a strong CLOSE after a slow start in that 5th place result. #13 LAPIS LAZULI was upgraded from his BTL effort on 11/4 here at Hawthorne and improved taking a tough beat on 1/1 and needs some racing luck today to draw in (sitting on AE) along with another outside post. 

#2 NEW DICE is another Hawthorne shipper showing up at Oaklawn Park that has been freshened from the 10/30 race where he has issues in the early stages (TROUBLE_S) of the race and struggled over the sealed main track that day. He has buried form and Oaklawn form that make him competitive returning to those efforts.