Handicapper Tips & Picks

Keying off the November Churchill Downs claiming races, #5 MRS. NUSHI has a class edge off those events and showing up here. She will shift back to the dirt with the barn change (same owner) to Garcia and off a wide trip at Turfway Park earlier this month. 

#7 CRYSTAL CRESCENT was part of the entry on 1/6 with her entrymate Carpe Horseshoe winning as LONE speed by open lengths. Crystal Crescent must show more tactical speed today with today's race shape though noting he did have trouble at the start (TROUBLE_S) last out to suggest she could be more forwardly placed if asked. 

Trip is also the main concern for #8 BAD OUTLOOK one that has the tendency to break slow (SLOG) with today's race shape. Outside of that she fits on figures and class; and that is before the claim to Diodoro and the addition of blinkers, changes that could see her move up (and also get bet) today. 

#4 ASEEL is a slightly new face as she return to make her second start of the meet/layoff to drop down to the maiden claiming level. The race under her belt could assist in a move forward and worth noting she made a WIDE MOVE something that is not as clear to see "on paper" in the running line and finishing position. The class change is also noted for #13 COROMANDEL (AE) and a significant TROUBLE+ trip for #14 RELENTLESS ROCKET (AE) runners that might have to wait for another day.

Many in this field will return from the 12/30 common race and looking at that group for improvement here. #10 ALLELUIA ANGEL improved in her second start going back to last year and could see that same progression in this second start back off the layoff and fit from the WIDE trip in the mud last month. #11 LORI'S EYES also returns to make her second start off the layoff and from TROUBLE returning last out. She is the lone mare in the group and overall can be tougher to trust as one of the more experience though has recorded some of the higher speed figures in this field and competitive races at the level going back to last season. 

#7 LITTLE ROCKER will move off the rail today and also find a rider change that is subtle with Bejarano taking over. Talamo is not known as one of the better gate riders and that is noted for Little Rocker getting away slow before the RUSH for position and perhaps the rider change can correct that here.  #8 VALENTINE ANGEL is another that has shown a pattern of gate (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) issues in her races to date though also finds changes here claimed from the 12/30 layoff return and picks up a rider change and the blinkers off for this race. 

#4 COOL RUNNINGS has back numbers that make him a contender and comes into this race with hidden form this season. He closed ground at the shorter sprint distance back on 12/15 and had legit compromising issues at the start (TROUBLES+) showing run on 1/06. 

#11 DR. FOREMAN looked to require class relief off the visuals racing at the starter allowance condition two weeks ago. He returns to the claiming level and despite the draw could find the right trip stalking the likely pacesetting runners #7 NORTH SIDE and #9 FULL IMPACT (even #10 SHANGHAI POINT) with first run. Similar class relief could move up #6 BRAVO BRAVO while he will require a trip and assertive ride to stick closer to the pace today and not allow too much separation on that first flight. #5 LIVINGONTULSATIME might show a move forward wheeling right back in a week off a WIDE for Litfin making a positive physical appearance (PRERACE+) on the track that day. 

#7 SEASIDE BOY has the tendency to create his own trouble with a pattern of gate issues going all the way back to his debut. That continued in his 1/01 return playing a role in the race though not overshadowed by the overall BTL effort strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ after the wire. They return under similar N2L claiming conditions today though with the added ground stretching back out to a route distance. 

#1 CITY LEGEND also stretches out and projects to show early speed with that distance change and off previous form to project a move forward. Entrymate #1A JACKS FIRE BALLS can also be upgraded in his second start of the meet/cycle and off the 1/08 trip given a rough start (TROUBLE_S) and making a WIDE MOVE. 

#8 JIM AND JIM is a legitimate long shot runner in this race though has back numbers and experience over this course and route distance. He is also finding significant class relief off his races and much higher OFR events this season to have him placed today where he can reasonably compete. 

#7 EFFORTLESSLYELGANT recorded a BTL, B OptixGRADE effort in her debut back in November with significant TROUBLE+ at Churchill Downs. That race gives her the edge over the others with race experience. 

#8 MARY'S BOON will make her belated debut here and often a pattern in timing for Robertson. As far as her visuals she will be tested for class at this level, though has speed and worked a quick 10.1 at the sale and since was purchased privately - keeping that in mind with the published auction sales price.

#5 DIXIE FURY already with a win at this condition from 12/31 is able to remain eligible and protected looking to keep up the win streak. Like many in this race he will be tested for stamina making his two-turn debut, though with progress race to race and off the visuals there is no strong indication that distance will be his main challenge today. #6 RIVER BOY has the benefit of two-turn experience as well as a competitive race behind a pacesetting winner on 12/19 at this condition over at the Fair Grounds.

#3 RICH GOLD appears at the right level and in the right group to compete. With that said, he has been his own worst enemy from the gate (SLOG) and that habit has turned him into a deeper closer where trip/pace comes into play. 

Even with the shorter distance of today's sprint, the Contention (Fire) is high with the pace (60 SpeedRate) expected to be honest up front. The primary pacesetters #6 A REAL JEWEL and #7 EMPIRE PASS could hold an edge (Quad I Square) though will be tested both from each other and others in this group.

#9 EMERALD PRINCESS returns to the right level for her abilities off the layoff and repeating a top effort could fall into the right stalking trip drawn outside some of the "pace" in this field. The change in class should also benefit #4 CANT BE TOUCHED today, though is one overall on the lighter side number wise though with a top effort could find herself competitive. 

Closing runners #2 ITALIAN JUSTICE, #3 STORMING LADY and #5 LA MORENA should have that early pace to run at though their riders must be tactically on their game with the 5.5f distance to avoid being left with too much to do late. 

#8 CALIBRATE was given an excuse here at Hawthorne on October 28th as his race was lost in the GATE and once the doors open was not asked (NO_PUSH) from the rider. The excuse was validated as he came back just three weeks later scoring a win and solid 92 OptixFIG in the 11/20 allowance. Rosin will bring Calibrate back today off a similar "second off" pattern from the 1/07allowance where despite the running line and finishing position made a WIDE MOVE. His back numbers as well as Oaklawn form stack up with the others in this field showing up with a top effort. 

#1 WINTERWOOD has been able to maintain consistent form and speed figures in his allowance races since September and shifting to the dirt for Brennan. Those efforts in terms of consistency could present an edge (and the connections keeping value) over #2 KAPUNA, #3 DISC JOCKEY (potential pace advantage Quad I Square) and even #4 PRESIDENTIAL as he gives up recency returning today off the 244-day layoff.

#5 TIZ RYE TIME also has been able to hold his form and run his race with the main test once again being class at this level in order to win. #6 FULL CHARGE holds an N2X allowance win from back in November at Churchill Downs, though the race par, the OptixFIGRANGE (OFR) was a lower 93-87 than today's 100-94 OFR. 

Tough to hold the Dogwood (G3) against #5 GUNNING as that race was followed up by the layoff she will return from today. Her form prior makes her a main contender and this spot using her conditions of eligibility to regain some confidence heading into the 2023 racing year.

#3 LADY GOLDSTART is not always the most consistent, however isolating her dirt sprints, she shows her top efforts and numbers that stack up on par. Class wise she will be tested again in allowance company though can be upgraded from a BTL effort and 5th place finish on 11/10 at Churchill Downs additionally to have her overlooked.

Numbers should land #11 SUMMER SHOES attention with the public and while it is tough to argue those figures fit on par, class wise this is a major step up for her to run against open and will be tested at the highest race par she has run at. In addition, some regression could also set in as she makes her second start off the layoff and off the strong returning win effort (B+ OptixGRADE/92 OptixFIG) just 30-days ago and saw similar "second off" regression going back to the pattern last March.