Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 WHISKEY DOUBLE presents upside with subtle class relief in this second start of the meet. Santana was not as effective (TACTIC-) with the handling back on 1/15 playing a role in the trip, ground loss and overall outcome. 

#4 UPSTRIKER has tactical speed to present a pace advantage in this race and from the group returning from the 1/7 common race. Upstriker has been running under similar conditions returning from the layoff in November and requires a top effort along with the favorable trip to win. #6 BURNINHUNKOFLOVE should offer value from that common race and 5th place finishing position earning the same B- OptixGRADE as Upstriker. #5 MEAN JAKEY recorded the B OptixGRADE finishing in a photo for the win, though comes back today "obvious" rather than last month when overlooked at 9-1 odds. 

#9 ORDER OF MERIT has recorded some of the higher more consistent speed figures and those efforts should translate as the connections bring him back to the maiden claiming level. 

#3 KRUSIN ROCKET could hold an excuse on 1/21 where he was fractious in the GATE, nearly flipping in the stall and was not checked out prior to the break. He will return to face open company, a similar condition from back on 1/6, though now has the racing foundation on his side in this third start off the layoff. 

#5 FAMILY TRADITION will drop to the maiden claiming level returning from the lengthy 513-day layoff. As far as class, this could be seen as a lateral move with the purse and race par from HS Indy and place finish returning where they think he can compete. With that said, the barn (trainer Brad Cox) alone should have him taking the bulk of attention and likely to be a short priced favorite. 

#10 SHOTGUN UP is tough to project a move forward at this point as he has established who he is as a race horse. With that said, he comes into this race with current form, recency and should expect another honest effort today. 

#6 GOIN TO THE SHOW will look to pick up where he left off returning to Oaklawn Park course and route distance. He was competitive and consistent in his races here last season with those efforts on par and projects to return for this barn in similar form today. 

#1 MOUNT CRAIG seems an "obvious" type in this race with form and figures on par as he shows up on this circuit for Bill Mott. With that said, this will be his first start around two-turns and also has had some gate issues (SLOG) in his races to date to consider with trip and today's rail draw. 

Overall there was not much between #7 ATLANTIC DANCER and #9 PATROLMAN the two returning from B- OptixGRADE efforts on 1/7. The speed figure (82 OptixFIG) earned on 1/14 by #8 TAHOE RUN was not far off those rivals, though overall C+ OptixGRADE effort requires a step up for this Special Weight level. 

#7 STRIKINGLY SPUN has the look of an improving type horse and with the connections remaining on this circuit (entered MTO under similar conditions at FG on 1/22) to take on winners.

#2 STELLAR LADY had some stakes experience from last year, though was not on the level of her competition. That experience could present a class edge as her figures stack up with today's rivals, though overall still must show a move forward, especially if the connections want to pursue stakes races. 

#8 MIDNIGHT HEIRESS could project a move forward in her second start off the layoff and from the trip where she lost her footing (TROUBLE_S) out of the gate and had to RUSH WIDE for position to recover and before losing ground. There was not as much of an excuse for #3 NEED SOME MONEY and #6 FABULOUS CANDY also returning from the Years End Stakes and still must show where they belong on class. The same class concerns in play for #5 JUNIORS JOANIE making a lateral class move from the 1/13 allowance and route debut here today. 

Keying off the first two races and speed figures, a case can be made for #8 SERGEANT COUNTZLER in today's race. This will be his second start off the layoff and first off the claim for Hiles as they make their sophomore debut coming back from a competitive 11/3 maiden claiming race at Churchill Downs. 

#5 ONCE UPON A DREAM paired up 73 OptixFIG in his first two starts, numbers that sat below Special Weight par on 12/16 though sit on par returning today to maiden claiming company. 

#1 TEXAS TED did himself no favors breaking slow (SLOG) on debut though showed run making a late MOVE and GALLOP+ out past the wire. A move forward can be projected as he makes just a second start though will require a better break to compete today especially with the rail, another inside draw. #10 MOON CONNECTION will return from that same 1/6 common race though shift from one extreme to the other moving off the rail to the outside and has shown to lose ground late. 

Morning line favorite, #10 INCORRIGIBLE has legit early speed to overcome the outside draw and even hold a pace advantage for today's race. #4 EGO has the tendency to break slow (pattern of SLOG) and can create his own "trips" though as an individual has races that are competitive for this level. #6 PRIMER DIMER can also be his own worst enemy as far as trip. With that said, intent looks to be in play as he returns to the claiming level, Torres aboard and a move forward can be projected coming off the WIDE trip racing protected first off the Asmussen claim last month. 

#2 GUN PILOT fits in the role of the favorite for this race. He showed class to break his maiden on debut and improved in his seasonal debut over today's course and distance. His form off those races make him a contender on that alone and with the others in this field that have shown class or stamina weakness should create less hurdles for Gun Pilot today. 

The outside draw is no bargain for #12 CONCEPT (morning line favorite) though his early speed and the lack of early pace contention could assist to establish forward position today without much pressure or ground loss. #10 SUMMER IN MALIBU has some buried form and tactical speed that could be overlooked off his recent running lines. He had a legit EX - EXCUSE returning from the layoff in December and need the racing off the layoff, a pattern he has shown improvement with in the past. 

#2 CARBONITE must improve off his races here this season and return to his Kentucky form from the fall to compete. There is some possible upside from his races here as he was not asked (NO_PUSH) for run with a WIDE trip and returning in sprint last month with a slow start (SLOG) and less than ideal (TACTIC-) ride. 

#7 LOVELY RIDE projects to be a heavy favorite today returning from back-to-back wins this season and solid speed figures in both efforts. She fits on par with those numbers, though will find a class test returning to graded stakes company. She has not fared as well in her graded stakes races so far, off the board without much excuse and noted as she expects to be that heavy favorite here. Also looking to "pick holes" she could have peaked in her form cycle running back to a top in the Pippin. In addition, she finds a subtle post position shift from the other races this season drawing outside her rivals (including other pacesetting types) here. 

#3 ICE ORCHID has been competitive at the graded stakes level recording B- OptixGRADES in both the 2022 Honeybee (G3) and Chilukki (G3) back in November at Churchill Downs to show she has the class to compete on this level, though still must step up to win. 

#1 A MO REAY also has some buried graded stakes form from the Frizette (G1) show finish as a juvenile to the B- OptixGRADE in the Pebbles (G3) over the turf back in September. She has shown to be versatile as far as surface and could suggest intent here by trainer Brad Cox. He shipped in Wet Paint from the synthetic at Turfway to win the Martha Washington stakes last weekend, could be looking for a similar stakes winning move here. 

#1 WILLOW CREEK ROAD will debut here and could be the right "new" face to jump up in this field. The four-year-old colt comes into this race with a steady local worktab for Robertson, capable of winning with runners on debut and could be well-meant as the barn is still (at the time of this write up) looking for their first win of the meet. 

#2 STUCK N SNOW has been competitive in each start this season and recording consistent speed figures along the way. He will require that form to transfer here and even a step up as he will race today against older (similar test for #9 PEARCY ROAD) for the first time. 

#10 SKYPED is one of the older horses in this field and going back to his 2022 season (as well as the 80 OptixFIG on 12/16) has recorded some of the higher numbers in the group. With that said, he is one of the more experienced and that can make him tougher to trust even though he just might catch the right group today. #11 CLASSY SOCKS has not quite run the same numbers, though could be sitting on a peak effort in this third start off the layoff looking to improve off the WIDE trip on 12/16 and upgraded making a MOVE against (X_FLOW) the race shape in the place finish last month.