Handicapper Tips & Picks

As far as #6 MAHAAMEL as the projected race favorite, he fits logically in that role. He returns from a pair of place finishes earning B OptixGRADE at the level and should hold his form back in today's race. 

#2 GREATHEART has back number here at Oaklawn Park right in line with Mahaamel keying off last season. He will be tested here on the class rise as he makes his first start off the claim for Hollendorfer. 

#3 CARNIVORE is lighter on numbers though has recency and form on his side coming back today with a better draw than the outside on 1/8. #1 JEDREK is also light on numbers, however had shown progression prior to this season and this season has improved with each start. 

As far as the projected favorites: #11 TWITTY CITY will be stepping up off a win and in terms of trip could be tested in today's dynamic especially with the far outside draw. #5 CALIFORNIA SWING is a confirmed closer where trip and pace must be considered and can be a liability at a shorter number.

That opens up the race to alternatives: Diodoro will stretch out #1 COOL RUNNINGS in this event as makes his first start off the claim. Following the analysis on this site, Cool Runnings has had trip-after-trip this season and even his 1/29 race can be upgraded from the 5th place shown on paper making a competitive MOVE and B- OptixGRADE effort.

#4 PRINCIPE GUILHERME will find some subtle class relief to run in this spot and could be just what he needs holding recency and a favorable run style for today's race. #3 RYE HUMOR is tough to ignore at the morning line with races that stack up on par, sitting on a forward swing of an "every other" pattern and could appreciate the rider change from Talamo to a better gate rider. #10 FIRST LINE is another closer though fits on his best day with numbers from last season on par and can be upgraded from the 1/27 race (X_FLOW) showing run against the dynamic. 

#5 DERBY CODE was claimed out of the 12/30 event and has been given time before returning here first off the claim for Sharp to race protected. The move suggests intent and as far as class, this could even turn out to be a softer spot noting a higher OFR last out. The front wraps were also added off the layoff in December and could see a removal today. 

#7 COLOSI picked up a win at this level, pulling off the 20-1 upset back in December. He was able to benefit from the trip saving ground and in the two January races was not as fortunate with the setup. Trip will still be the test here and for Juarez to find that perfect run to get the win. #8 GUARD does not appear as obvious though has some buried form that gives him a mention as one that could get "lost" on the board.

#2 LITTLE DEMON is likely to find the opposite with public support finding its way in his direction. His recent form fits in this event to appear logical and finding some class relief out of Aqueduct as well as a running against (X_BIAS) the track from the rail on 1/20. It is worth following the Jacobson runners on this circuit as their make their Oaklawn debut appearances this season to upgrade and downgrade as necessary. 

#3 DEAR LADY does not appear as strong as the favorite for this race without much of an edge in today's field. By contrast, #2 DEMI returns from the same 1/20 allowance race also recording a B- OptixGRADE, same as DEAR LADY, however DEMI posting a BTL effort making TWO_MOVES against the (X_FLOW) race shape. The effort does not appear an outlier as she caught the eye back in the Trapeze showing a sneaky good (WIDE, WIDE) willing run. She has shown improvement race-to-race and another honest effort is expected; with value as well. 

#6 BOLT FOR ALLISON will land her in her first start against winners and that comes with a test in its own right. She has to her credit shown progress with each start and improving speed figures race-to-race. Her stablemate #1 CONDENSATION must improve overall and will also be tested for stamina as she makes a route debut. It is worth mentioning as she makes her second start of the meet, back on 1/13 she was in the race with her stablemate, Klassy Bridgette, the open length pacesetting, even money chalk winner. #7 U GLOW GIRL also returns from that 1/13 common race with similar challenges as she will be tested for stamina as well making her route, two turn debut. 

This is a competitive event where a case can be made for many making it tougher to take the short number on #11 ASPEN CLUB while at the same time fitting as a logical type in this spot.

Looking to get creative: #7 ONEIGHTHUNDREDCASH might not have been "race ready" returning from the layoff on 1/21 based on the visuals that day and with that race under his belt with prior form could see him competitive here. #3 LORD M might look a little more "obvious" and likely to show early speed draw inside rival Aspen Club. Stablemate #8 BOTANY could also find the right trip though is cross entered on Friday. 

#6 TALE OF TRUTH can be given an EX - EXCUSE after the break on 12/18. With that said, he has a long history of poor GATE (SLOG) issues that are self-inflicted and can be a liability especially as the connections alone are likely to take support. 

Milligan has a pair in the field with #10 SOBRIETY coming back off the maiden win where he was well-meant off the layoff, despite flying under the radar of the public that day. He was also flattered by the race shape and those factors should be weighed with the projected odds. His stablemate #13 DEPART (AE) might have to wait for another day though should be followed as he has some buried, progressive form and projects to IMPROVE off his races this season. 

The pace should be contentious (Fire - OptixPLOT)  which is just one of a few knocks on both #3 TRULY A ROCKET and #6 LEGENDARY GIFT coming back at a shorter prices in this race off front running wins. 

The contention could set up a trip for #9 XYLOPHONE, a runner that has yet to chase a fast early pace this season and will find class relief as she makes her third start this meet exiting higher OFR events. #8 DUTCHESS BUBBLES will be required to step up in class though has back numbers and form here at Oaklawn Park, that form that flew under the public radar and set her up for the win last month. #4 HOPING FOR A RING also has some back numbers from the 2022 season that makes her a fit. Price compensation is required based on her current form and the numbers in the prior season were recorded for a different barn. With that said, Arrieta taking over today could be a live sign picking up a top rider as she drops back to the claiming level to suggest positive intent. 

Going back to January 21st when #2 BACKGROUND was making his return off the layoff it was noted in the Emily's Analysis on this site, that he is typically a "second off" horse when turning in a peak effort. As he returns from off an honest race three weeks ago and one to add some fitness a move forward can be projected as well as that noted intent. 

The two Asmussen runners, make second in this race and fit on their best day. The conditions allow #8 SUPER STOCK, a graded stakes/stakes winner to participate here and race protected. He has some challenges as this will be his first start back in 252-days and has in the past required a race moving forward in a "second off" cycle. #9 SILVER PROSPECTOR returns to make his "second off" exiting the 5th Season stakes. He had the layoff as well as the far outside post as adversity and the rider (TACTIC-) was unable to overcome the draw with the WIDE trip throughout. He has numbers that stack up on par though must work a trip from a similar draw with potential intent given the rider change back to Santana. 

#6 SOY TAPATIO had to work hard to get the stakes win back in November at Zia Park and some concern that he would require extra recovery time from that effort. That could suggest he needed the race off the layoff and played a role in the 5th Season stakes effort, though all around needed to see more from him and must rebound today. 

#5 THOMAS SHELBY must be mentioned listed as the morning line favorite. While he has races that make him a fit, he tends to do his better running when on the lead and can often falter, even at times without excuse. Those factors must be considered with a shorter price and given other alternatives in the field. 

#10 KNOCKER DOWN will look to redeem himself coming up just short as the favorite on 1/6. As far as his effort he recorded a solid 95 OptixFIG second best in a DUEL with the winner, Golden Hornet.

#8 MISTER MMMMM also recorded a 95 OptixFIG on the same day and in a similar conditioned allowance race, though a slighter softer OFR of the two allowance sprints that day. #12 CLASSIC MOMENT also returning from the Race 6 on 1/6, will also look for some redemption going off as the second choice in the wagering and finishing off the board without a strong excuse. A case could be made that he required the start returning from the two month break and also as far as appearance was WARM that day, something not characteristic from this horse in the past. 

#4 HOYA PARANOYA should be flying under the radar wheeling back from the pouring rain (WEATHER) race just two weeks ago. He had an EX - EXCUSE, albeit self-inflicted, missing the break (VSLOG) though made a massive BTL MOVE that deserves a follow.  

#6 PARODY could find the right field, trip and with buried form cycle back to a top effort to compete in this race. Following her debut win, she shipped out to Baffert in California to run in a pair of stakes races. In each start, she was send to the lead and into Fast/Very Fast early paces upgrading her from the dynamic and also in terms of running style as she does not appear as a confirmed "pacesetting" type. 

#3 KEY OF LIFE fits logically with OptixFIG in OFR and with form at similar type sprint stakes events. She does project to find pace pressure with her running style and will also give up some recency returning from the 77-day layoff. 

The layoff is not nearly as long as it is for #4 STONE SILENT returning from a 238-day layoff to run in this event and pick this particular spot for Sadler. The placement could suggest intent running on this circuit in just her second start with allowance eligibility still in play. While this will be the first Sadler runner here at Oaklawn this season, the barn has shipped in live runners in the past. 

The class test and trip will be a test for both #3 KLASSY BRIDGETTE and #7 TWIRLED both runners stepping up in class coming off favorable scenarios winning as the favorite, respectively. 

Of the four runners in this field with experience they have all left something to be desired when looking for a contender. #7 INTO LOVE leads off that group and could get attention off the pair of place finishes this season. In both races she was able to establish a LONE lead up front and still lacked, NO_FINISH, when needed late. That opens the race to a new face and to look at the first time starters.

#2 PUNCHBOWL seems well intended for this meet given the local works and progressive series of drills here at Oaklawn Park. The connections are more than capable with first time starters, coming at no surprise to the public. 

Positive intent could also be in play for #5 ALLYMISSLOVE as she makes her debut here for Brisset with owner WinStar sending out other runners on the card. 

#9 MONTASTICAL is a tough read as she worked 10.1 back in April at the sale while still green recording that time on her left lead. She might have required additional time to develop and work playing a role in the timing of this debut noting a series of works from last spring into the first part of the summer. She started working in the first part of January as far as published moves with more foundation on the farm prior to returning to the work tab at Louisiana Downs.