Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 HISSY MISSY will make her third start this meet and since the long layoff return in late December. She has shown some run in the two sprints posting 72-73 OptixFIG in each race, numbers that sit below the OFR from those previous higher Optional Claiming statebred conditions, though stack up on par for today's claiming event. In addition she has shown the ability to race and compete at a route of ground consistently and over this course - surface/distance is something of a question mark for many in this field. The rider change, class drop and stretch out could have HISSY MISSY sitting in the right time and place and offer a square alternative to #4 DORITA'S HEART coming off a new top over the off track just two weeks ago. 

McKnight will send out a pair with #1 MUMBLEBEE and #3 LIL'S TURN. The edge sides with LIL'S TURN of the two based on overall form and running at a higher level than MUMBEBEE at Woodbine, though she will give up recency which must be considered for the now seven-year-old mare coming back off the two month, 68-day layoff. 

Number wise #7 CAGED BEAR also has recorded numbers that stack up for today's OFR finding class relief in this third start of the cycle. 

#6 POUT could offer the value compensation to move up in the selections. The value is required here with the layoff, colder barn and race history of losing ground late. To her credit, she looks placed for her abilities at this level and could signal intent with Bejarano taking the call. 

#1 LEGALLY LUCKY was bet down for the connections back in November at Remington Park and raced one paced in that fourth place finish. The WEATHER conditions could have played some role, as there was a massive storm with heavy rain during the running. 

#3 SWEET TRUFFLES could present the edge (and value) over #4 WINDY BAY as the two show up on this circuit exiting Special Weight events at Sam Houston in their most recent start. The class rating was higher for SWEET TRUFFLES and overall giving a stronger (B- OptixGRADE) effort of the two. The rating for that January 7th race, is a lateral move for this event both races with 79-73 OFR. 

#8 REAUX BINA still appears overmatched in this spot taking on both older and open company, though given a mention with the distance change as one that looks to appreciate the added ground, and could be worth a follow. 

#6 TOUCH CODE could be given a "pass" on February 4th as he was stepped up in class coming off the new top (91 OptixFIG) on February 4th. In addition, he was very fractious in the GATE and raced WIDE with all factors playing a role on that race day. The connections wheel right back in this spot and back to the level in January where he was able to compete.

The Moysey pair look fairly similar on "paper" and recent speed figures, though the class edge could upgrade #7 PISTOL OR SHOTGUN coming out of the starter allowance events this season, races with a higher OFR. As far as #8 RUM 'N TONIC he will pick up a rider change back to Santana and that could make a difference to move up at this level nothing the three straight WIDE trips in his most recent starts.

Both #1 ST. ANDREWS and #2 MASTER OF ARMS look capable on their best day, though lack a strong edge in this group and require their top effort to win and could take the added support on connections alone.

Value is also required on #9 OTTOMAN EMPIRE as he returns to make his belated second start of the meet. The layoff lines create some concerns though taking a more "forgiving" approach (value needed) he did have the outside draw coming back from the 215-day layoff in December though was up close to a softer pace before losing ground. At that time of the meet, Asmussen runners were on the "cold" side and that could be another factor in the poor effort and the lack of wagering support, dismissed from the 8-1 ML.

The cutback in distance looked to move up #1 KING DOODLE on February 3rd, however, the rider was not assertive on the day and as needed from the rail. The quick two week return, subtle class drop and addition of blinkers could suggest intent and also see a more aggressive, necessary ride to compete today. 

#6 EL GEMAR will also pick up blinkers and a class drop making his first start off the claim for Broberg. This is also his second start back off the layoff returning from a wide trip on January 14th with competitive numbers that stack up with today's OFR, including the January effort recording a 70 OptixFIG despite the run line and finishing position. 

#9 GOLDEN BANDIT is on the softer side number wise and while they will be running for the reduced maiden claiming tag, there is not much in terms of class relief noting their age and running here against older. Those factors are mention as the "drop" along with today's connections expect to find public wagering support - no value.

By contrast, the value should be present on #2 MOON OVER DUBAI, another three-year-old that is coming out of races with higher OFR and a more lateral class move to run in this race. The gate issues (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) has played a role in the first two starts, and perhaps the intent with the drop, addition of blinkers and an aggressive rider in Eramia taking over can correct those habits here in just a third start. 

#8 HOWL YEAH is a real "wild card" in this race making a lot of changes (barn, class, Lasix, blinkers) coming back from the layoff. The barn has sent out just a limited sample of runners this meet, though has had some success with that group so far and could be another well meant runner with Santana picking up the call. 

#9 LET'S DUET stands out on class in today's allowance event. She returns from a pair of solid efforts (B-/B OptixGRADE) this season and in the minor finishing. Trip has been key and does require as much today with her running style. 

With that run style noted on Let's Duet (and other closer types in the race), #5 COASTAL CHARM could take advantage with her run style to work a trip. It is noted that Arrieta sides with Let's Duel over Coastal Charm with Tyler Baze picking up that mount and value is required on this rider that has been cold this meet. #4 AALIYAH EZRI also showed early speed with the December 30th win, though was able to get away with a Very Slow (VS O4S) early pace and will be class tested as today's event is a considerable step up. The class rise is also in play for #1 SQUILLIONS returning to this level in her second start of the meet and a noted step up from the Remington Park races. That carries to #7 BRITTLE AND YOO despite exiting similar N1X allowance conditioned events at Turfway Park, those races with a lower OFR than today's par. 

#2 BYZANTINE should be sitting with a forward move as she makes her second start back off the layoff and stretching back out in distance to a route of ground. This second off pattern, along with improvement, came in her second start when she put in a strong CLOSE to just miss. She continued to improve with each race throughout 2022 and capable of following a similar pattern here. Trip/pace is still a hurdle as she has shown to be a confirmed closer. 

This is a tough race that could offer value and that assessment starting with #8 RED KNOBS, the "obvious" participant in this field. They won under similar conditions back in November at Churchill Downs and turned in an honest effort behind their stablemate, Frosted Grace on January 27th. While capable, they lack much of an edge over others in this group with the number on the board being the main knock. 

Class was the main concern for #3 WINDCRACKER back on January 27th hand will find relief from that race to compete here. He carries further upside making this third start off the layoff and reuniting with Arrieta, his rider from the competitive effort (B- OptixGRADE, 90 OptixFIG) place finish back in December. 

Many in this field will stretch out in distance and are both unproven at the route and intent questioned as they have spent the bulk of their career sprinting. #5 SHADOW MATTER being one of those runners making his route debut here. The distance is an unknown, though there could be intent with this change and placement reclaimed by Asmussen after losing him in November and showing some confidence (slight protection as well) stepping up in class and picking this spot to return in. #9 SILVER DUST is proven at the distance with his biggest test right now in his 9yo campaign finding him the right level where he can compete and return to winning ways for the first time since spring of 2021. 

Swearingen scratched #8 NAMESAKE from an off track N2L event on January 29th at a route distance with the stretch out in distance intent noted with that placement. They will land in this spot looking for drier conditions and likely to see a more assertive ride with the distance change as Bowen takes over. 

#9 QUICK TO BLAME returns to the N2L claiming level first off the claim here for Diodoro. He could be upgraded from the January 15th race, a race with the top two finishers both big class droppers and dominated the group. In addition, Quick to Blame suffered ground loss with the outside post racing WIDE up close to an honest pace before losing ground. 

Distance is still a test for #10 CONSPIRACY FACT (and even #11 MINT - no value) though the slight change to a flat mile could assist today where a trip and top effort is still required. The value compensation should be there on #1 QUALITY RUN based on the recent running lines and less. He has back numbers from 2021 and prior to the long layoff he returned from back in November. Those races would still require more to compete today, though are not far off of many in this field including #4 MIDNIGHT MAJESTY. 

The assessment starts with #4 C Z ROCKET as the projected favorite. He is clearly a capable runner exiting graded stakes events and graded stakes winner throughout his career. That said, he will be asked to run off the 104-day layoff to start his 9yo campaign and trip should also be factored in the number given his run style. 

Hartman has had a solid meet and lands in this race seemingly well meant with a pair of runners. The two complement each other as #6 EDGE TO EDGE projects to be forwardly placed keeping #2 ROTKNEE honest on the lead with #1 NECKER ISLAND looking to stalk-and pounce. Necker Island also has the class and figures on par and improved in the second half of 2022 with the connections turning him back in distance and into a sprinter. 

#5 MORELLO is one of the younger runners in this field and looking for the spot and distance where he can compete as an older horse. He will be required to show that here though as a sophomore flashed ability at times and in theory races to build off of heading into his four-year-old season. His stablemate #3 SKY AND SAND also deserving of a mention and a horse that was dominant breaking his maiden over this course and distance last January. Since that time, he spent the bulk of 2022 on the turf and perhaps that was the intent as he has been stabled at the Fair Grounds looking for a turf race, though unable to find one with the conditions and limited grass racing there this meet. He is one that could also step up as an older horse, though really must step up with a new top coming in light especially in comparison to the older, established race horses in this field. 

#12 THIRD WATCH projects to be favored in this race and could project a move forward from his debut effort back on January 13th making a middle MOVE into a solid pace, something that is not as easy to see on the running line alone. 

#6 CHUPAPI MUNYAYO also projects to find a pair share of wagering support given a solid effort in his debut back on December 31st and returning with the group from that common race. The time off since that race, the 48-days could be a slight knock and also noting the Moquett barn still "HOT" at that time of the meet. #9 READY SHOES recorded a similar figure to Chupapi Munyayo racing against open company on January 13th that should move up naturally shifting back to statebred company. His debut worth mentioning as they broke slow (SLOG) and the rider did not ask (NO_PUSH) for run after. 

First time starter, #7 IKE WAZOWSKI will look to turn things around for Green, as the barn still looking for some success this season. With that said, they are capable and prior experience with preparation of younger horses could be the edge with this debuting runner as a "new" face to the group.