Handicapper Tips & Picks

The full field of fourteen makes this race deep on story lines and competitive in terms of race shape and dictating a trip. That includes morning line favorite, #13 VICTORY FORMATION, a horse that has done everything ask of him to this point bringing a perfect three-for-three record. This is without question his biggest test to date. He will face solid competition and must prove "best" with his forwardly placed running style to overcome the outside draw and the other pacesetters (Sun Contention/22 SpeedRate) in this field. Those other projected pacesetters (Quad I/III runners) include #3 SHAQ DIESEL, #4 DETERMINEDLY, #5 HARLOCAP and potentially (lack of Surface/Distance data) #14 PRIVATE CREED. Cox stablemate and prior rival #6 ANGEL OF EMPIRE finished second behind Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones recording a new top 90 OptixFIG, a softer number especially to justify the morning line in this race and must be noted the gate issues present with the slow (SLOG) break in each of his four starts. 

Victory Formation will be joined by the other Brad Cox runner, the likely second choice (popular public alternative) #8 TAPIT'S CONQUEST. Brad Cox had considered running Tapit's Conquest in the Lecomte (G3) though took a different path running in an allowance earlier on that card noting the barn sent out the Lecomte winner, Instant Coffee. While Tapit's Conquest did not win his allowance race, the effort was still game making an inside MOVE against the race flow (X_FLOW) and finished in a BLANKET at the wire (alongside pacesetting FLOW winner, Determinedly) and GALLOP+ out in front, an effort (B OptixGRADE/95 OptixFIG) that should not deter the public from following him into this stakes race.

Rival #11 SILVER HEIST also wheels back from that January allowance and part of the BLANKET finish. Based on the complexion of the field, Silver Heist was required to track closer to the pace than perhaps his ideal trip given the rail draw and compact five horse field. A case can be made for another forward move as a lightly raced progressive type in just his third career start though will give up seasoning and experience to others. #2 SINGLE RULER earned a similar OptixFIG breaking his maiden on the January 21st card, though will find a significant class test stepping up in today's graded stakes event. 

#10 TWO PHIL'S will return as the lone participant from the Lecomte (G3) and look to build off his place finish as he makes his second start back off the layoff. That 83-day layoff was one of the concerns heading into the Lecomte, making a first start of the season. The race is under his belt, though perhaps the other concern still remains in play of improvement as Two Phil's stepped up number wise recording a new top 93 OptixFIG in the Lecomte, a number that still must be improved on to compete in today's 96-90 OFR and with the others in this field and does not appear to hold a pace advantage as a Quad II Circle. 

#9 CURLY JACK comes into this race light number wise, though a case could be made for improvement as he starts off the sophomore campaign. As noted on previous race analysis and in the OptixEQ "Road to the Derby" race video series, the KY JC (G2) has a history of being a productive race and has shown similar this year producing next out allowance winner, Cyclone Mischief as well as the Southwest (G3) place finisher, Red Route Road and Lecomte (G3) winner, Instant Coffee. Those three improved around 10 OptixFIG from their OptixFIG in the KY JC (G2), a speed figure improvement jump that Curly Jack would require in order to compete today. 

#7 SUN THUNDER comes into this race as a developing type and one with fitness on his side as he will make his fourth start in as many months since making his debut back in November. He has shown progression without yet turning in that "breakthrough" number and if he has that race in him, this could be the time and place. His debut suggested ability and projected improvement with added (STRETCH) ground which he showed breaking his maiden dominantly (B+ OptixGRADE) overcoming adversity (TROUBLE) to win by open lengths on December 31st at Oaklawn Park. The connections were quick to bring him back for the Southwest (G3) a race that did not seem the "goal" given the timing though a useful race as far as class experience. Noting Sun Thunder did not run back to his top 92 OptixFIG (90 in Southwest) it is reasonable to project he can still present a move forward in this "hidden" third start of the form cycle. Hernandez also will jump back aboard, a rider that was up for the debut and upgrade overall. 

#12 CRUPI ships in for Todd Pletcher as an improving type despite still holding maiden status. Number wise he fits with today's group and has the surface/distance (EX - EXCUSE trip on 11/20) experience and overall physicality of a two-turn runner. His progression is noted as well as the place finish on January 21st noting the top two finished together and clear of the others and Crupi showed a lot of run making a sustained middle MOVE into a solid pace and still had to show run late with the race shape remaining Fast (F OfS) late. 

#4 HYPERSPORT fits as a logical type for this race with form at the allowance level this season and consistent figures that fit on par and with the others in this group. She is projected to fall into that heavy favorite role, with the short price as the primary knock.

#1 COMEDY ACT remains at the preferred sprint distance and will look to improve exiting the January 21st race with the poor (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) break (something of a repetitive habit for her) and TRAFFIC trip. Bejarano will look to be more assertive today and could be necessary with the rail draw. 

#7 AZUL TEQUILA will also show up off a similar trip back on December 29th at Turfway Park where she broke slow (SLOG) showed run making a middle MOVE and willing through TRAFFIC to finish in a blanket for the minors behind the open length chalk winner, Quaria Comet. 

#8 SHE'S ALL CLASS is also given a mention here as the connections had the intention to run her at this level back on January 1st, though a vet scratch unable to compete. She started to show run and progression last year to build off of for 2023. 

#5 HOUSE WRECKER sneaks into this race as her $6250k claiming win on January 22nd does not count towards the eligibility for this restricted claiming event. She could turn into a clever claim for Combs, a barn that has had a solid meet so far. #1 SHOW ME GRACE also fits today's eligibility and placed for her abilities. This condition is a better fit than the higher level allowance from back in December returning to this course and distance. 

#9 CHASING SHADOWS was a value play back on January 27th as one that look to find the right trip and with buried form that fit the race. She ran a game race (B OptixGRADE) making a CLOSE through TRAFFIC just coming up short in the place finish and is unlikely to be overlooked today. 

Diodoro could have a strong hand (and not too creative) in this race with the pair of runners. #2 MAC DADDY TOO will make his second start of the meet and cutting back to a sprint with the fitness from the mile race on January 8th. #9 NINJA WARRIOR holds a win at this starter allowance condition from back on December 18th. He was able to establish a LONE lead, a similar trip that assisted with the maiden win back in September. 

#10 LAKE RADIO could benefit from the projected race shape with his stalking run style. He has been able to both maintain form and transfer his form this meet for Smith. This will be his third start of the form cycle and coming back from the show finish two weeks ago behind the pacesetting exacta pair, that finished together and clear at the wire. #8 SONO GRATO could also come running late as they show up here cutting back to a sprint and could be some intent with the quick one week turnaround. 

This is a competitive race where a case can be made for many in the field. That includes morning line favorite, #6 SUMMORYA as she returns to statebred company in her second start in against winners. She was well-prepared to break her maiden on debut, though did have to work HARD for that December 31st win. Summorya was able to get up over #5 LASSIE MY GIRL, both earning B OptixGRADE, with Lassie coming back to break her maiden on January 28th, validating the form for both. In addition to Summorya, Moquett will send out #4 TIMAVATI, a progressive type that earned a solid 84 OptixFIG breaking her maiden on January 8th. She has been given the 41-days to recover and retains Bejarano, noting he had been aboard both Moquett runners.

#2 MOZINGO will make her second start of the meet and off the layoff where she could present a move forward. She will look to build off the January 27th event with the blinkers going back on and making her statebred debut today for Amoss.

#7 SHE'S STORMING will also return to statebred company for the first time since her debut win back on December 9th, the first part of the meet. She must continue to improve and while capable does require a top effort in this field. Arguably, #8 ONE WAY OR ANOTHER with the higher speed figures from last season could be considered the one to beat. She has struggled with layoffs (including a vet scratch on 1/15) and class to factor in as far as the number on the board. 

#10 HEROIC MOVE appears well-meant for the connections here to make his debut. The barn is capable with debut runners at a route distance and with Rosario in town to ride the feature stakes race for these same connections will pick up the mount. 

#8 HARD SPUN FANTASY wheels back from the common race finishing behind #12 BYE BYE RAY on January 21st. Despite the change in finishing position, Hard Spun Fantasy showed run making a MOVE after a SLOG and overall visuals suggest this one can take a step forward off that experience with the added (STRETCH) ground. 

#4 INTERLOCK EMPIRE debuted in a productive race on December 31st and comes back in this third start with the benefit of surface/distance experience from January 28th. That race was run in the rain (WEATHER) with a pacesetting winner and the top two finishers together at the wire. Class is still a concern for #7 SEAS OF NORMANDY off his visuals and lacking an excuse with a PERFECT trip in 1/28 common race.

#9 ROUTE RUNNER has not been seen since the summer of his juvenile season and requires improvement off his first two starts despite finishing on the board, the quality of those fields is in question. That same test for #11 STORMIN ARMY though he does have the benefit from experience and recency making his second start of the meet and could see a move forward with that race under his belt and route debut. 

Miller has a pair entered in this race giving the edge to #5 ARMAN over #12 THIRSTY JOHN of the two for the barn. The key for Arman goes back to his debut, a strong B+ OptixGRADE effort showing class and following up that first start with some excuses and layoffs in the two races that followed. He comes back fresh off the 139-day layoff in the first start for Miller and could be intent landing on this circuit and spot. It is worth noting that Arman is cross entered in a race on Sunday along with rival #7 TWO EAGLES RIVER - one that has run some competitive races and figures, though has seen those numbers decline since his debut and will again be tested one stamina at today's route distance, something he must prove. 

#11 SHOPPER'S REVENGE has the benefit of recency and a race over this course and distance. He did benefit from a LONE front end trip and softer race FLOW breaking his maiden last month, though could have been a function of field and race shape, though worth a mention as he will be tested further today. 

#3 AIRTIME popped with a strong B+ OptixGRADE effort on January 29th, a race that makes him competitive right back pairing efforts. He will be required to carry that form as he will step up in class to run here protected first off the claim for Diodoro.

The pair of first time starters #3 MULLIKIN and #5 MIRACLE WORKER merit respect for the connections, both capable with debut runners and both horses picking up live riders and solid works coming into this race. 

As far as recency, #6 SIMOVIC has the race under his belt and progression from the Churchill Downs debut. His January 28th place finish was earned over poor track conditions, racing in the rain (WEATHER) and slightly against a track profile that favored runners forwardly placed.

#1 SWAGGISH will make his second start of the meet and freshened off the December 31st (productive race) debut returning with blinkers for his sophomore debut. Going back to that first start, he was colder on the board from the 9-2 morning line and for Asmussen a barn that started off the meet on the colder side as well. The barn will also be represented by #7 RYVIT making a belated 289-day return looking to improve off the spring juvenile form in his sophomore debut. 

#3 CONGRESSMAN showed ability from a less than ideal trip on debut though his second start and win returning from the layoff last month. His class (B+ OptixGRADE) prevailed as the trip began with a rough opening 1/4 and did not continue smooth where an excuse could have been given if not for coming up victorious. 

#10 ROMAN CENTURIAN showed ability from the start of his career and class in his own right returning off a 435-day layoff last May going right to the winners circle. He will be tasked with similar today looking for a similar result making this first start back off the 279-day layoff. 

#4 ALEJANDRO has the benefit of a start this meet and BTL effort in the show finish at this level on December 11th. Heading into that race he was at the peak of the end of the year campaign and could benefit from the nice 69-day freshening returning here for Asmussen and picking up Jose Ortiz. 

Class is the test and could be a steep hurdle on the win end for both #5 TIZ RYE TIME and #6 DIGITAL two runners that have form this season and races on their best day that can compete, even if that means a minor award. 

A lot of attention here could fall on #4 GINOBILI as he return to make his second start this season back from the 5th Season stakes win. While dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) on the day, he did benefit from a favorable (PERFECT) trip and visuals that could suggest a taxing (HARD) effort despite the running line and open length score. Today's race is a step up in class, not just to the graded stakes level, but higher race par than last month and arguably he has faced in his career. Distance/stamina will also be put to the test especially with the level of competition. 

Pace could also be a challenge for Ginobili with #6 WEST WILL POWER returning in this spot. West Will Power is a quality graded stakes runner with legit early speed and Ginobili could find himself chasing a faster pace for the distance than ideal. As far as West Will Power, his top effort and early speed can present an edge and Rosario is likely going to take the race to this field right from the start looking to run gate-to-wire. 

#2 LAW PROFESSOR could be his biggest threat and find the right stalking trip. He is proven at this class level, surface/distance and with speed figures on par to compete as a prime contender. This will be his second start of this form cycle freshened from the BC Dirt Mile (G1) and regaining confidence in the stakes win last month at Aqueduct. Jose Ortiz will be back aboard and while the BC Mile ride (TACTIC-) is not one for his highlight reel, he has a solid record aboard this horse from prior starts and his presence today suggest further intent. 

#3 RATED R SUPERSTAR and #7 LAST SAMURAI present legit closing run and look to be winding up late for the stretch run. Despite the morning line, #9 KEYSTONE FIELD could sneak away on the board and could find first "stalking" run on those closers while in form given his graded stakes test this afternoon. 

#6 WATCH THIS BIRDIE projects to be a heavy favorite in the finale and tough to knock in that role. She ran well (B- OptixGRADE/84 OptixFIG) on debut against open company last summer at Colonial as well as over this course (B OptixGRADE/82 OptixFIG) against colts/geldings on December 10th. As far as the time since, she was entered back on January 8th unable to draw in off the AE.

#9 BROOKE'S ALL IN earned a follow from her debut, a BTL effort that might not look like much "on paper" with the running line and finishing position. She showed a BURST after a rough (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and could present a move forward off the first start experience. The same could be in play for #2 HONEYCAMP as some intent could have been present on debut taking wagering support off the 8-1 morning line. As far as trip she did have early WIDE, ground loss chasing before losing ground though no strong "excuse" on the day. The experience, time and even rider change could also benefit her and another that was entered unable to draw in on January 8th. 

First time starter #7 COUNT IT ALL JOY is also worth a mention in this spot. The barn sent out a 33-1 upset debut winner under similar conditions back in 2019 and the presence of Santana is noted. 

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