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Sun February 26th, 2023 |
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Emily's Analysis
Oaklawn Park Race 1
#4 LANDSLID fits at this level based on her current form and the connections are making the right class move to place here where she can compete today.
#2 LANTERN'S CANDY fits as the projected favorite for this race. This will be her first start off the claim for Becker, a barn that does not have to move her up to compete just require her to hold form and work a trip. As far as trip, she will find Arrieta aboard, a live rider overall and for this barn this season. Pace could also suit her running style looking for a ground saving trip with first run on the pacesetters: #1 ELI'S GIRL (another making her first start off the claim and fits at this level) drawn inside likely to use her speed from that inside position and joined by the two outside runners #6 NAVIGATIONAL BEACH on the stretch out and #7 LADY ENVOY looking to return to the front running ways that picked up the maiden score back in December.
#5 ABBY THE BULL DAWG will again be tested for stamina though back in the right claiming level in her third start of this cycle. #3 DIAL DISH has some similar stamina concerns. With that said, she projects to show a move forward today in this second start off the layoff and to date ran on of her more competitive races over this course and flat mile distance back in April of 2021.
Oaklawn Park Race 2
#7 MYSTIFIER had some buried form from the Hawthorne turf races heading into the January 8th claiming event and just came up short that day still recording a B OptixGRADE. He will return under similar conditions with the subtle drop wheeling back in just 9-days and could see the blinkers added a positive change for this individual.
#4 SEASIDE BOY comes into this race pairing BTL effort in his show (B- OptixGRADE) finishes this season. He has been his own worst enemy with the gate issues this year and issues that have extended back to his very first start. Zimmerman will take over today and that change could be the key and at the least making the change shows some intent here by Martin.
Those same poor gate habits have also been in play for #8 HAPPY BOY ROCKET as long as he has been racing including the starts here this season. Overall he fits at this level and has recorded some of the higher speed figures in this field with some of those races over this course and brings in current form as Asmussen brings him right back off the claim in six-days.
The pace scenario is a tougher read as it appears both #3 PAID IN FULL and #5 LIARS CLUB will take up position forwardly placed. They could be joined by #1 KISS PRINCIPAL and #2 AMERICAN SMOOTH depending their rider decisions for this race. Early speed is unlikely for confirmed closer, #6 SHINNECOCK HILLS, another with the slow (SLOG) pattern playing a role in his running style. While he does have his own challenges this would be the spot for him to step up as finds considerable class relief from his races this season and in at the right level for his abilities.
Oaklawn Park Race 3
#7 MEGAN'S CLARA will make her first start off the layoff though seems some positive intent for her here picking this spot for the live connections. She fits this non-winners of two condition and finds class relief from her races here last season and races overall.
As far as the condition #6 YOLANDA WHO and #1 BIZZY GAL hold two wins though able to compete in this race on eligibility as three-year-old fillies with both a fit on their form/figures with the others in this field. The public betting down #4 FUNTIME GIRL to the second choice back on February 5th suggested more was expected from her that day. Her maiden win, the debut at Oaklawn Park last season stacks up on par.
Oaklawn Park Race 4
#5 WATCH THIS MUNNY looks obvious in this race with current form/figures on par and making the class transition to run for a tag shifting over to this circuit and back to the dirt. The same class drop from Special Weight moved up #6 PERFECTLY GOLDEN on January 13th and comes back to this level off the WIDE trip and B- OptixGRADE.
#3 ROCKABILLIE must make up ground and pick it up on that pair though could be in the right spot to do just that. Some intent appeared in play for her when she race under similar route conditions for the $30k tag back on December 30th. The trip played against her as the rider was unable (TACTIC-) to overcome a SLOG making a WIDE MOVE still showing run in spots. She will return today with a rider change and that change suggests intent with Arrieta aboard for the first time.
The layoff lines and returning with front wraps on February 17th was a concern for #1 SAENGER STAR that day. The connections will wheel right back in 9-days for this race and could suggest positive intent with that timing and a more competitive effort one that saw her competitive under similar conditions back on December 30th. #8 REAUX BINA was given a mention in that 2/17 common race against older with the positive distance change stretching out though again must show a move forward (the concern for her that day as well) with others in this field on the "faster" side.
Oaklawn Park Race 5
#1 WHOOPING JAY could present an edge in this race with current form, early speed and the rail. This will be his third start off the layoff with Broberg returning today with the class drop suggesting some intent looking for the win, even if it means the claim as well. The barn could hold a back up plan with #6 DRIFTER claimed out of his closing (Quad IV Square) win back in January and could again be looking to pick up the pieces running on late.
#8 NEWS BOX recorded a B OptixGRADE at this level on December 10th, the first part of the meet and has been given time, a 50-day freshening by Diodoro for this race making his first start off the claim. #3 TILLIS could also move forward in this spot returning to make his second start off the layoff and showed run in his February 3rd return with the challenges of that time off and post position in a full field.
The lack of recency is noted for #5 EISENSTAEDT coming off a 969-day layoff. Without question his races fit at this level, though the time off, class drop and coming back today in a sprint all create reservations, especially on a runner that could be a shorter price with the involved connections and "fear factor" from the public.
Oaklawn Park Race 6
#1 ITALIAN JUSTICE could find the right trip and a move forward with the slight addition of ground and off the BTL effort at this level back on January 29th. She should have pace to stalk given today's race shape. #8 SHEZZ KOLDAZICE could also fall into the right trip depending on the ride and bringing in a top effort.
As far as the early pace Compton could send out a pair #2 A REAL JEWEL and #5 PRINCEDREAMCESS (cross entered earlier in the week) looking to set the pace along with #7 TIPSY GAL. That pair should be kept honest by #3 SO IT WOULD SEEM for Haran, landing here following a vet scratch on 2/12 and #4 JETS A GINNIN looking to keep her win streak going and another favorable trip that assisted in those two prior starts.
#6 LA MORENA overall is lighter than others and for this level requires a top effort, though the pace as noted should be honest for her to put in the late (Quad IV Square) run.
Oaklawn Park Race 7
#2 LOST IN LIMBO sneaks into this condition on "date of win" eligibility and could further intent as he makes his second start off the layoff. He has early speed, some fitness coming back in two weeks and picking up a notable rider change with Bejarano aboard. Just to his inside #1 PHILO BEDDOE also has shown early speed and figures that fit on his best day though will be giving up recency off the 322-day layoff requiring price compensation.
There should be some price compensation to go around as #5 PEACEFUL STREET shows up in this spot for Diodoro. He could certainly win, though does not hold any edge in this field and could even have some "knocks" with the layoff lines especially timing with 51-days since his seasonal return and dropping for the tag.
#8 UPSTRIKER is a runner that requires the right trip to run his race and could find that here with a subtle change. He has form coming back to this level for Rosin and capable of improving off the DUEL between horses, an uncomfortable trip for this individual as they move to an outside post today -- that subtle though could be key change.
Contreras scratched #6 COSMO from a starter allowance earlier this month and lands here with a similar purse under conditions where he fits with the "non winners of three" eligibility. Trip is key for this runner overall and with his run style and was unable to get the trip for his run back on January 22nd.
#9 BLAME J D also fits today's condition almost to the date of his most recent win back on July 7th. Richard has been able to move this runner up off the barn change in the past with those races on par for today's event.
Oaklawn Park Race 8
#6 KING PEANUT was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE/85 OptixFIG) breaking his maiden on debut back in late December for a barn that is not known to win at a higher percentage first out. He has been freshened for this return and second start where he will require pairing up that debut effort/figure to compete here against older and winners, though looks up to the task. The class change to run back in against statebred should benefit #2 WESTHEIMER STREET. He also broke his maiden on first asking here in December though did not earn as strong of a figure (80 OptixFIG) or Grade (B OptixGRADE) as KING PEANUT.
#12 TOPF ROAD RULES has back numbers and will make his second start of the meet/layoff from a subtle trip back on January 20th. They will return from that route race and fitness here cutting back to a sprint, a series of works since and finding a rider change to Castillo.
#11 AFLEET SKY also returns to a sprint and from a wide trip in that January 20th common race. Overall his numbers are softer, though is lightly raced and has experience over an off-track should that come into play. #7 HAMAZING WISDOM will follow a similar pattern from the common race and back to a sprint, with subtle TROUBLE on the first turn. While he has some figures that stack up on par, class is a different hurdle as he has been more effective against claiming company.
#4 MAHOMEY comes into this race on a progressive pattern with his races this season. While in terms of pace and trip there was not much of an excuse on January 22nd, however he is not a natural front running type and can return to his preferred tracking run style here.
Oaklawn Park Race 9
Many of the runners in this race will return from a common race back on February 10th. That race had a major DELAY as one of the runners (one not present today) had to return to the paddock for a shoe repair and the horses were held up walking around by the gate for roughly 10 minutes. #5 ORDER OF MERIT finish third (B- OptixGRADE) though benefit from the race FLOW and ability to save ground. Running against the dynamic, #2 FALCONITE was one of the pacesetters and could be upgraded as he made a RUSH into that Fast (F O4S) early pace.
Of the pacesetters in this field, #9 ALPHA WHISKY could also be upgraded from the DUEL (VF O4S) back in September at Churchill Downs. While he will give up recency making another start from an extended layoff his races here at Oaklawn last year fit for this lower maiden claiming level.
The class drop could also move up #6 UNCAPTURED DREAM as he returns to Oaklawn off the longer 337-day layoff to compete from the efforts and OptixFIG in OFR earned in his first two starts.
#7 CAMPISI had a favorable trip (PERFECT) and lacked required NO_FINISH on February 12th though he might have lost his race before it started WASTED a lot of energy pre-race.
#3 SINGING GROOM also deserving of a mention as could go off at longer odds with an "upset" look. The four-year-old will find class relief (lower OFR) today and his running style could be flattered in today's race shape.

