Handicapper Tips & Picks

The edge on recency and class sides with #5 ARNEIS over the others with experiences. She will make her local debut for Martinez and exiting strong races (higher OFR) out in Kentucky. The change in class should allow her to show more early speed than she has in the prior races. 

Early speed should be expected for #4 STRONGENOUGHSTORM making her return today and first start off the layoff and for Reyes. The barn sent out a maiden claiming front running winner here last June off a similar pattern. 

First time starters, #1 TWICK OR TWEAT and #3 LADA KALINA could pop as new faces though noted they will run against the older fillies here as sophomore and worth taking a look at them on the track to assess visually. 

Local returning runners #2 EVIE JEAN and #6 BUMPER GIRL ran in a common race on December 2^nd a race that has held form and should note the weather conditions with high winds and track producing a lot of kickback along with an open length (and next out) winner, My Lady Slew.

The early speed and class relief for #1 SUNDAY MISCHIEF could be the right combination to get them back to form and the right spot to compete. While his running lines and finishing positions might not suggest interest in racing, the form cycle was reset following the turf season and progressive with a flow upgraded on February 10^th. #7 TOP NOTE also has some early speed and will look to get back to top form with the circuit switch. The change could be a positive, at the same time there are concerns with the recent drops in class and TOP NOTE failing to improve with that given class relief.

Morning line favorite, #3 TRIPLE CHROME is most logical. They ran a competitive race under similar conditions with a WIDE trip back on December 30^th. Number wise they are “faster” than #5 TEA AND BALLET and #6 DARE GOES DA DEVIL, runners that showed some interest at times sprinting N2 claiming level sprinting last fall. The distance change noted for #2 FUTURE VISION and #4 WHERE’S LUCKY runners that appears to require more ground than today’s 5f sprint distance. 

As shown on OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines pictured alongside OptixPLOT, the runners with experience #1 MINING CAMP, #3 TEA WITH LEMON, #4 READY MADE and #6 GUST OF WIND all show a pattern of gate issues with the repeat SLOG (slow out of the gate) Keyword. #6 GUST OF WIND could present upside of that group. Perez brings him back with the class drop from Special Weight company and after showing some run in spots for those first two starts back in December. Apprentice Emmanuel Giles will have the call today and making a belated return to the saddle missing the 2022 season. He started professionally in 2021, with 94 (14-15-12) mounts here at Hawthorne that season and the tendency to ride assertively putting horses into the race and on the lead. He had the mount on first time starter, #1 Lada Kalina (Race 1) for Perez and worth following.

Rivelli will send out a pair of first time starters and this barn is known for their runners to show early speed. Baird will pick up the mount on #5 CUPID’S NUMBER and noted he was named aboard #2 LARRY’S LUNCHBOX when that cold was entered and scratched from a $20k maiden claiming event back on November 17^th at HS Indy.

Five-year-old #7 CRONUS will shift over to this circuit for Contreras and looks to be the right move for this runner as he will find class relief in terms of race par, while still running protected at the Special Weight level. Some further upside for this race as he will be his second start off the layoff following a rough start (TROUBLE_S) in January at Oaklawn Park and return to a route of ground here. 

Some excuses could be given to #5 ACT A FOOL on debut back on January 13^th at Turfway Park as he was forced to the lead and into a fast early pace (X_FLOW) while widest (X_FLOW) of that group before losing ground and was not asked late. Distance wise he still must prove himself based on his physicality and even intent noting they had him entered to debut here at Hawthorne in a 6f sprint unable to draw in on December 30^th and was also a vet scratch from a MSW 5f turf sprint at Gulfstream Park on January 26^th.

#2 STAR NATION will make a second route attempt with the rider (TACTIC-) and SLOG problematic at Turfway Park back in late January. While distance is still a test, both sprint races here at Hawthorne in December were finished with a strong GALLOP+ after the wire. 

The Perez pair will be class tested coming back off the layoff to the Special Weight level and could be worth a follow in the right spot for their abilities going forward, especially #6 RUSSIAN HAMMER recording a BTL effort in his debut. 

#6 GLOBAL EMPIRE returns to a route distance for the first time since the “match race” last September. He will also find class relief returning in this race and looks placed where he can compete this afternoon.

#1 CHOCOLATE BUNNY has a “longshot” look in this race. He has run competitive numbers and races on the front end with one of those under Giles over today’s course and distance. He could present further upside from the races here closing out 2022 with the November 11^th race a first start back off a 114-day layoff and flow upgrade setting a Very Fast early pace for the distance. Rider TACTIC- played against him on December 10^th as Centeno tried to rate. The OFR from those two races was higher than today’s event to create subtle class relief today. 

As far as the morning line favorite, #2 MINISTRY OF ART he is capable in this spot, though does not hold any strong edge in this race. His N2 claiming win back on December 18^th was earned with a PERFECT trip and showing up today in this event is a lateral move from the recent Fairgrounds races. His form, figures and RunStyle are no stronger, #5 EMPTY HOLSTER one that has some buried for, to compete in this spot and could find the right race shape for a trip under Roman.

#2 CHICKS FOR FREE looks solid in this race as the projected favorite returning to Hawthorne with solid form from last year and finding class relief from those open company claiming races. His gate (SLOG) issues are noted with that being a potential hurdle with the 5f distance. #6 D’YANK also has some buried form and one to keep on the radar should he get “lost” on the board. He will return today for Martinez and into the softest spot he has run at any point in his career with his sprint OptixFIG from last season stacking up in today’s OFR. 

The pace should be honest with #1 CHANNEL WON and #4 TIZ DEJA BLUE looking to engage early for the lead and #5 CHRISTMAS PRESENT looking for first run on that pair.  #7 Z U SOON comes back to Hawthorne for this race on a current “every other” pattern on the upswing and suggests intent back in at the claiming level. #3 TWO COOKIE RULE ultimately might benefit from this start and added ground as he makes his first start back in 64-days. 

#5 VALIENTLY DISCREET returns for a tag and could be the controlling speed in this race. He was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) in his second start on the lead breaking his maiden on December 3^rd after given some excuse from the November debut when he was very fractious in the GATE and SLOG showing run from off the pace behind PERFECT trip winner, #4 HURTS SO BAD.

#7 RACARINO will give up some recency returning from the 319-day layoff though could be race ready for Gonzalez and returns to take on winners. His form fits with today’s group and can be seen as encouraging they come back for the higher $25k tag whereas a drop would be more concerning. 

#6 BEEASY does not hold any strong edge over the others mentioned. In addition, he gives up recency returning from the extended 331-day layoff and for a claiming tag.

As far as #7 LONG TALL WOMAN she is proven at this level and under Lezcano, factors that could see her stack up the third straight win and run as a short priced favorite. While capable, she will give up recency making this first start back in 100-days noting she did improve with racing last season. In addition, she will return in this spot with the shorter 5f distance than perhaps her ideal and that distance change moves her to Quad IV today, a shift from last year racing as a Quad II Square. 

#6 AVASARALA could look to take advantage as one that carries tactical speed and form under Centeno. She also holds a win over today’s course and condition going back to May 8^th and finished in front of Long Tall Woman back on April 24th.  

Both #4 FOOT RUB LOVE and #8 GO STORMIN GIRL have been slightly outclassed at this Optional Claiming level in the past, though have been able to pick up a minor share. #1 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT could have similar “pace” concerns with today’s shorter distance as a Quad IV Square in addition to the class rise returning to this circuit to keep in mind as far as assessing value.

This is a competitive event to close out the opening day 2023 card. #6 GEMO RAIN could be overlooked in this spot where he has form to compete at this level and at the shorter sprint distance. Positive intent could also be in play as he will make his second start off the layoff for Martinez and perhaps “given” the February 9^th race at Turfway Park when running for the higher $12.5k claiming tag. GEMO RAIN started to see his form tail off after the HS Indy races and the time off to reset and regroup after December 17^th could be key. As far as a trip, his (Gemo Rain) ability to show tactical speed (OptixPLOT) could assist tracking behind the quick (above ParLine Quad I) E/EP runners, #2 CHOPPER and #9 D’FEVER. #5 KING TITO could also fall into a similar stalking trip, though overall is lighter than others in this field on class and speed.

As far as the morning line favorite, #8 RICHIESGOTSWAGGER he is not without a chance, though does run from off the pace and will shorten up today to the 5f distance where trip is key. Looking at the Plot, if making the case for RICHIESGOTSWAGGER, #3 RISKY BOY is shown in a similar position and consistent OptixFIG in today’s OFR with expected value of the two given the shift in the morning line.

#4 BEL BIMBO is worth a mention with some buried form here closing out 2022 though might require a race and more ground. As shown on the Plot has a strong closing kick (Quad IV Square) to come running on late.

#6 FAMILY TIME fits today's conditions and with the timing of the eligibility with her most recent wins back in November. She will require a return to that top form, though to her credit is moving forward with each start this meet. 

#2 MISTY VEIL also fits today's conditions returning to the starter allowance level off a wide trip last month and where she recorded her most recent win over today's course and distance last May. 

Flurry Racing is represented by a pair: #5 PRETTY XTREME with the barn change to Cox and class change from the higher level allowance races this year will look to move up today. #7 GOOD PENNY will take a slight class rise to run here protected though has held her form this meet under Arrieta and expect similar today. 

#9 PEACEFUL MOMENT fits as the favorite logically with current form (upside of an every other pattern coming into this race), class relief and foundation around two turns.

#1 I GOT A NAME will find class relief on a progressive pattern and class relief with the route foundation coming back from the 2/17 $30k maiden claiming event. 

The stretch out in distance is new for many in this field and #8 BLUE COWGIRL being one of those. She has foundation and shown improvement this meet and wheels right back in just 9-days from a BTL effort in that 5th place finish showing run under poor WEATHER conditions. Rival #7 OLD SCHOOL FLASH has numbers that stack up on par exiting the same 2/24 race though has had more experience and to this point the connections have not tried to stretch her out to a route playing towards intent. 

#3 SHESABIDFORMIDABLE could move up in today's race as she makes her second start back from the layoff and dropping in for a claiming tag with numbers on par. 

Green will send out #1 EMERALD PRINCESS and #6 DISTORTED SECRETS and could have some positive intent by a barn still hungry for the first win of the meet. Distorted Secrets overall is light and must improve off her races this year, whereas EMERALD PRINCESS could see that move forward today with the foundation in this third start of the cycle with back numbers that fit on par. 

Emerald Princess exits a common race with #2 CARPE HORSESHOE the winner on 2/24. While a solid effort on the day that would have her right back in the mix here, the timing is noted and effort could be taxing as she had to do all the dirty work up front with the race starting to slow late. The pace should be honest with #7 EMPIRE PASS in the field, one with some concerns making her first start off the claim, a significant drop and also lacking finish (NO_FINISH, GATE) without excuse. 

#8 LA MORENA could be overlooked off her current running lines and finishing position. There is more form to that story and should have pace here for her late (Quad IV Square) run. 

This is a competitive event and a lot of attention could land on #1 CORONA BOLT returning in this spot. He might have been exposed on class and distance in the Southwest (G3) with the return to sprinting a welcome change. With that said, he has other hurdles taking on older for the first time and with his forwardly placed EP RunStyle at the rail projects to be joined by many in this group sharing a similar RunStyle looking to keep the pace (Fire) contested. 

Santana will stick with #4 JOKING WAY noting he had been aboard #2 FAVORITE OUTLAW when racing here last season and recording some of his stronger numbers. Favorite Outlaw must return to top form today to compete and will give up recency in this first start back in 172-days. JOKING WAY will look to pair up wins and could see him do just that as one that has run well in each of his four starts and did not run back to a top effort (that top finish in his 10/30 Special Weight win) on 1/20. 

#7 IGNITIS has not shown progression as an older horse and while he is not expected to take that leap forward today, he comes into this race with form, returning to a sprint and as noted with the Contentious expected pace, should have pace to close into. 

The runners in this field all looking for their first win of the year and for most looking to get back to top form makes this a tricky event. Going outside the box, #3 SPARK could present a move forward with some form this year and back numbers while picking up Saez. #8 OPTIMUS KAT could be taken a bit more "logical" with his back numbers and current third-off pattern returning to a route distance. #9 PADDY O'DINI was off 643-days before returning last month and seems a positive given that time away to see him back in 30-days. He has back numbers that fit on par and sneaky form at a route distance. 

#1 SUMMER IN MALIBU projects to return to a top effort with class relief and distance change wheeling back for this event. He has buried form from the EX-EXCUSE on 12/18 to showing speed in a DUEL to finish in a BLANKET at the wire on 2/5. 

#2 VICTORY MARCH will find class relief in this second start off the claim for McKnight, a barn that has been sending out live runners as of late. Victory March showed run and upgraded WIDE against (X_FLOW) last out though has that tendency to break slow (SLOG) and that could be an issue for today's 5.5f distance. 

#9 TOWN BRANCH has not shown much progression as an older horse to justify the change today to run for a claiming tag looking to place this runner where he fits. 

Today's Special Weight event has the conditions for horses that sold at auction for $75k or less and some in this group will find subtle class relief from prior Special Weight races without stipulations. #11 DIVINELY BOLT being one of those runners and following her back in California has required class relief for quite some time and should move up naturally in today's group. While #1 SACRED WISH might not have run in the strongest Special Weight race back on 2/11, she recorded a solid effort/OptixFIG making up ground into a Slow early pace with that race stacking up with today's group.

#10 WRECKING HAVOC will find a slight step up in class as she was claimed last out by top connections for $30k to race protected here using that eligibility. She has held her form in the first two starts with prior trainer Calhoun sending out well-meant runners here as that is noted she might have to show more and step up in order to earn that top spot. 

There are two recent maiden winners that project to get attention off their efforts/figures coming into this race. #3 SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY was dominant over the 2/9 field at Fair Grounds, though did not catch a strong group and will be tested on this circuit, field and in terms of timing coming back in three weeks. #6 PUNCHBOWL showed a lot of run to overcome a slow start to get the win on 2/11. She will be tested here while perhaps not the strongest Special Weight group, a stronger group than the ones She's Lookin Lucky faced. PUNCHBOWL also wheels right back in three weeks and must hold form while making the transition stretching out in distance. 

McPeek will show up with a pair giving the edge in recency to #9 STELLAR LADY coming off a good return effort last month. #7 CORNINGSTONE is a quality IN-bred that has been competitive against open company, though does require a top effort returning off the 151-day layoff here. #1 NEED SOME MONEY also wheels back from the 2/4 common race and off a less than ideal trip Bejarano will look to improve on here. 

#4 IKE WAZOWSKI was no match for Chupapi Munyayo in his debut back on 2/17 though was not disgraced staying on as the BOS and showing early speed first out. On the opposite end of the field, #1 MADMARTIGAN broke slow though put in a sneaky good late run (GALLOP+) and could see a move forward off that initial experience. 

#7 READY SHOES could be the "wild card" in this race and overlooked from the 2/17 event. He is on a subtle every other pattern and moved forward with similar timing on 1/13 when running against open company and recorded a solid speed figure - a number that stacks up with many in this group. 

#10 CLASSY SOCKS recorded a new top effort showing speed over an off-track just last week. His form overall fits at this level and with today's field though projects to be a shorter number than at any other time on the track. #8 FOUR DICE also wheels right back from that common race where he again will be tested for class though given a mention with the BTL effort on debut against maiden claiming company. 

Wish we had a better race to start the meet but we get what we get. Not a fan of any in here but will go with one of the two first timers, 1-TWICK OR TWEAT. Her works are slow but she’s in capable hands and most of the rest in here have been in slow mode during their careers. 5-ARNEIS hasn’t finished in the money in any of her eight starts but she has been splitting fields at Turfway recently and her speed figures suggest that she could be the fastest of these. 4-STRONGENOUGHSTORM drops and adds blinkers. She hasn’t beaten a rival in any of her three starts and her closest finish was 24 lengths behind the winner but maybe she’ll be more competitive at this level.

3-TRIPLE CHROME is probably the one to beat in this race. He’s moving up a notch in claiming price but he’s coming off a decent race, as the favorite, in last at Turfway, only last week. Sharp connections and versatility just might give him the advantage. Laurel shipper 1-SUNDAY MISCHIEF could be the quickest from the gate and at this short-sprint distance, that just might put him in the driver’s seat throughout. 7-TOP NOTE, another beaten favorite, is another moving up in claiming price but he has been racing regularly in New Orleans. He displayed decent speed when stretched out for his last two races but expect him to show more of a late move with the turn back in distance.

It’s amazing that despite the track being open all winter, few of these runners were given the advantage of many works. First timer 5-CUPID’S NUMBER has been training forwardly for his career debut. The team of Larry Rivelli and E T Baird are likely to win many races this meet. This could be their first on the board. Like the speed 4-READY MADE displayed in his last two races last year. He tired in both but this cutback to five furlongs should suit him perfectly. He stayed fit with a couple drills during the break. Might sneak to the lead and never look back. 3-TEA WITH LEMON drops back into maiden claimers. He had trouble at the start in all three races. Might show far more with a clean break.

7-CRONUS makes his 11^th start as a maiden but this will be, by far, the easiest field he has ever faced. Not sure why his last race was so poor but he had been splitting fields in some of the toughest maiden races in the country. He’s likely to wake up big time, at a very short price, in his local debut. 5-ACT A FOOL lost his only race by over 60 lengths. However, the fact that this barn is entering him back in a maiden special suggests that last race might have been a fluke. He was well played in his debut but will go off at a much higher price today. Hmmm. Not sure if 3-SHARP AZ NAILS will be the lone speed but he did lead most of the way in his last at Turfway and none of this rivals have displayed any real early zip so far.

2-MINISTRY OF ART finished far back in his last in New Orleans but he had been in good form prior to that; both here and in Louisiana. There’s plenty of speed in this race so I doubt if he’ll be sent right to the lead but he is pretty quick and should never be far back. 6-GLOBAL EMPIRE stretches out. He has been sprinting lately but has had some success in previous route races. In his last start at six furlongs, he made up about 12 lengths to finish fourth, beaten less than two. If there had been more real estate in that contest, he might have flown by them all. 7-ARGY BARGY BUCK is likely to be sent right to the lead. He did finish second when stretched out in last at Fair Grounds. Could hang on to share in this one. 

The last time 6-D’YANK raced at such a low level, September 2021, he won. He also got claimed from that race by this barn. His recent form and lack of many works are troubling but still think he could wake up with the drop in class. 1-CHANNEL WON might not get caught. Perennial sprinter has five wins at the distance and, even though most of his success came on the lawn, he appears to be the quickest of these. 2-CHICKS FOR FREE should never be far back but he doesn’t appear to be as quick as Channel Won, despite Baird in the irons. He finished fourth the last two times he raced at this level but could easily do better today. Don’t really like 7-Z U SOON but he did win the last two times he ran on off tracks, just in case the weather takes a turn for the worse.

5-VALIANTLY DISCREET took on a pretty salty group in his first start versus winners. He wound up fading to last. However, the good early speed he showed in his last two races could prove difficult to overcome if he breaks alertly against this group. 6-BEEASY is hard to gauge. He was always quick in the past but he hasn’t raced in nearly a year and he’s returning at a lower price than his last claim. You know he’ll be ready from this barn but will he be as quick as he was in the past? 4-HURTS SO BAD might be the closest thing to a closer in this field. There are plenty of front runners that could be vying for the lead. He could come along late to pick up the pieces.

This speed-filled race just might set up for a closer, despite the short distance. Can’t expect all the runners coming off layoffs to be in peak form. So, I’m thinking the pace will collapse and set things up for 7-LONG TALL WOMAN and 1-LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT. Long Tall Woman ended 2022 with two straight wins over somewhat better. She’s been training well during the break. It is possible that she’ll try for the lead, she is quick enough, but the pace of the race would seem to set up better for her coming from out of it. Lucy’s Lookin Left has been in good form for a long time with wins in three of her last four and four of her last six. She’s been great on this track. Could fly by them all. 5-SHEZ RECKLESS could turn out to be the best of the speed. She finished third in last, coming from off the pace, but she’s far better when going right for the lead. 

6-GEMO RAIN drops. He showed little since getting claimed by this barn but he was forced to deal with a shoe repair in his first start for them and he took on much better in his last. 2-CHOPPER might be the quickest of these. He tends to tire late but the cutback to five furlongs could be just what the doctor ordered. 8-RICHIESGOTSWAGGER is two-for-two at the distance. He finished behind many of these in his last but he did win his prior start.

A very tough race to kick things off for the live season. Bottom level maiden claimers lacking in form along with a couple of first timers. Had to dive into the replay machine to make a case for 4-STRONGENOUGHSTORM but one can be made. In her debut she got away well and showed early speed through the opening half before tiring. She was in over her head the next two starts but again showed some early foot in both. She comes into here off a decent gate drill as maybe she can sneak away and steal this race. 5-ARNEIS has been racing into January, posting some mixed results in Kentucky. Speed figure wise she is the fastest of the group and does race for a barn that wins at a high percentage. The question that arises is how badly overbet will she be? 2-EVIE JEAN is yet to finish in the top three in 14 career starts but that could change today. She has a pair of works leading toward the return, most recently posting a respectable half mile drill. The running style works against her though as she may be left with a lot of ground to make up late in this short sprint.

Sometimes the favorite is just the best horse in the race. That appears to be the case here with 3-TRIPLE CHROME. There is a little speed to the inside from 1-Sunday Mischief but that one also has a tendency to fold up when headed. Triple Chrome won't be too far back early, should be able to push things along and benefits from a recent race at Turfway in regards to fitness. 7-TOP NOTE can show speed around two turns but is more likely to take back in here and look to run on late. He comes from a very solid barn and is fit off races in New Orleans. The one knock is the recent drop in that last race to $5k after being claimed for $20k in October and now in for a lower level tag once again. 5-TEA AFTER BALLET could be worth a look at a price if the pace does happen to hook up in here. He does not like to win, doing so just once in 27 career starts but nobody in here is truly consistent. Look for him to be picking off horses in the lane.

Two Rivelli entrants in here but wouldn't be surprised in the least if only 5-CUPID'S NUMBER runs. 2-Larry;s Lunchbox doesn't show a workout since mid-November and may not quite yet be ready. Cupid's Number gets Lasix for the debut, comes in off back to back solid gate drills as well as getting E.T. in the saddle. Expect to see some speed from him and a good performance at first asking. 1-MINING CAMP may be worth a look at a price. He ran on closing day and got quite the education with a very tough trip. He has since worked twice toward his return, most recently posting a solid half mile drill on February 26. 4-READY MADE could be the other to add to the early pace scenario. He chased in his final two starts of the fall meet and has a couple of workouts toward the return. The spot suits and let's see what kind of action he takes.

This spot could come down to fitness and value today. 3-SHARP AZ NAILS is definitely fit, coming off a pair of mile starts at Turfway the last two months. The most recent effort was solid as he battled early and ran on late. Fully expect the potential to wire this field. 7-CRONUS has raced with gaps and mixed results throughout his career. After being claimed for $50k last February he posted three respectable races at Oaklawn before getting a lengthy layoff. The January return was disappointing but he comes to Hawthorne finding a bit easier competition. Let's see just how much action he takes in the end. 2-STAR NATION just got started at the end of his two-year-old season, running a couple of decent races before getting a two-turn try at Turfway in January. Gate issues the last two starts provide some excuses but still not expecting much in regards to early speed. He does appear to be fit though as he should be picking off horses in the lane.

This is an intriguing race for a lower level claimer as pace scenario and smart riding decisions will be the key. With the potential for three horses to possibly try for the front, 5-EMPTY HOLSTER may be the one to get the dream trip and run by everyone in the lane. His effort at this level two back wasn't bad and I like the consistent workout pattern toward his return. Roman was aboard in that December 10 start and gets the call once again. Much like Empty Holster, 2-MINISTRY OF ART is another that should be sitting back off the early pace and looking to move into the lane. While the most recent effort was disappointing, the three races prior were all solid. He has found the board in half of his 14 Hawthorne starts and may be able to get the jump on Empty Holster into the lane. 7-ARGYBARGY BUCK is a tough on to figure out in here. He was a speedy type of sprinter much of 2022 and recently ran a solid race at a mile in New Orleans in his last. I think his best chance to win will be if he settles back early and looks to run on in the lane but E.T. is very much an early pace type of rider. If they hustle away and find company early, it could compromise his chances.

Looks like the potential for an early pace battle between Channel Won and Tiz Deja Blue. If that's the case, the perfect setup may present itself to 2-CHICKS FOR FREE. A winner in his only start at the distance, he has enough tactical speed to find a good spot early and run on in the lane. A pair of workouts off his January 18 race will have him set up for this spot today. 6-D' YANK is another who may benefit from a quick and contested early pace. He has run well over this track and although he has never raced at this distance he does have a win at 5 1/2 furlongs against much better company than what he sees today. The only concern in this spot is just one drill coming off the layoff. 5-CHRISTMAS PRESENT has been excellent in his Hawthorne starts, finding the board in 8 of his 9 races. He is likely to rate a bit closer to the early pace in here but appears fit off three February drills leading into the spot. He may present some price potential today.

This is easily my least favorite race to handicap on the card. It's a race with a lot of layoff horses that are dropping in class along with the potential for 6 of 8 in this field to show early speed. I'm hopeful that the outside draw will force 8-U S HONOUR NAP to have to take back at the start, with the hopes of dropping in to save ground through the turn. He has been away since a maiden score last August which is concerning but has also remained at Hawthorne throughout the winter, working consistently, and quickly toward his return.  There may be more value here as well as Santiago rides the other Becker, Valiantly Discreet over this one. 7-RACARINO is another that presents some unknowns as he has been away since last April. Claimed for just $7,500 at the end of 2021, he made just three starts last year, breaking his maiden while posting a strong figure in his final race before the layoff. The running style suits and he has three drill toward the return, but will he need a race coming back before he is truly ready is the question. 4-HURTS SO BAD had a nice maiden score here last November before racing with mixed results in the four starts following that effort. He shows a pair of works toward the return and gets Centeno in the saddle, a rider who quietly had an excellent meet here last fall.

Nobody should be sent away as a heavy favorite in this spot but there is some value potential in regards to 3-RISKY BOY. He posted some solid efforts here last fall, defeating similar at the end of the meet. He was full of run late in his most recent race at Mahoning Valley and should get enough pace to close into here. A nice work off that race makes him a threat today. 7-DEVIL'S RULE is another that should get a good stalking trip, but is likely better to look to underneath in the gimmicks. He is winless in 24 Hawthorne starts, finding the board in 9 of those 24 races. Only one drill toward the return but that was a snappy gate work. 8-RICHIESGOTSWAGGER often times takes a good amount of action and has won both starts at the distance. The concern here is he could be overbet and with this large field will have to weave his way through traffic in the lane if he's to win.