Handicapper Tips & Picks

The edge on recency and class sides with #5 ARNEIS over the others with experiences. She will make her local debut for Martinez and exiting strong races (higher OFR) out in Kentucky. The change in class should allow her to show more early speed than she has in the prior races. 

Early speed should be expected for #4 STRONGENOUGHSTORM making her return today and first start off the layoff and for Reyes. The barn sent out a maiden claiming front running winner here last June off a similar pattern. 

First time starters, #1 TWICK OR TWEAT and #3 LADA KALINA could pop as new faces though noted they will run against the older fillies here as sophomore and worth taking a look at them on the track to assess visually. 

Local returning runners #2 EVIE JEAN and #6 BUMPER GIRL ran in a common race on December 2^nd a race that has held form and should note the weather conditions with high winds and track producing a lot of kickback along with an open length (and next out) winner, My Lady Slew.

The early speed and class relief for #1 SUNDAY MISCHIEF could be the right combination to get them back to form and the right spot to compete. While his running lines and finishing positions might not suggest interest in racing, the form cycle was reset following the turf season and progressive with a flow upgraded on February 10^th. #7 TOP NOTE also has some early speed and will look to get back to top form with the circuit switch. The change could be a positive, at the same time there are concerns with the recent drops in class and TOP NOTE failing to improve with that given class relief.

Morning line favorite, #3 TRIPLE CHROME is most logical. They ran a competitive race under similar conditions with a WIDE trip back on December 30^th. Number wise they are “faster” than #5 TEA AND BALLET and #6 DARE GOES DA DEVIL, runners that showed some interest at times sprinting N2 claiming level sprinting last fall. The distance change noted for #2 FUTURE VISION and #4 WHERE’S LUCKY runners that appears to require more ground than today’s 5f sprint distance. 

As shown on OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines pictured alongside OptixPLOT, the runners with experience #1 MINING CAMP, #3 TEA WITH LEMON, #4 READY MADE and #6 GUST OF WIND all show a pattern of gate issues with the repeat SLOG (slow out of the gate) Keyword. #6 GUST OF WIND could present upside of that group. Perez brings him back with the class drop from Special Weight company and after showing some run in spots for those first two starts back in December. Apprentice Emmanuel Giles will have the call today and making a belated return to the saddle missing the 2022 season. He started professionally in 2021, with 94 (14-15-12) mounts here at Hawthorne that season and the tendency to ride assertively putting horses into the race and on the lead. He had the mount on first time starter, #1 Lada Kalina (Race 1) for Perez and worth following.

Rivelli will send out a pair of first time starters and this barn is known for their runners to show early speed. Baird will pick up the mount on #5 CUPID’S NUMBER and noted he was named aboard #2 LARRY’S LUNCHBOX when that cold was entered and scratched from a $20k maiden claiming event back on November 17^th at HS Indy.

Five-year-old #7 CRONUS will shift over to this circuit for Contreras and looks to be the right move for this runner as he will find class relief in terms of race par, while still running protected at the Special Weight level. Some further upside for this race as he will be his second start off the layoff following a rough start (TROUBLE_S) in January at Oaklawn Park and return to a route of ground here. 

Some excuses could be given to #5 ACT A FOOL on debut back on January 13^th at Turfway Park as he was forced to the lead and into a fast early pace (X_FLOW) while widest (X_FLOW) of that group before losing ground and was not asked late. Distance wise he still must prove himself based on his physicality and even intent noting they had him entered to debut here at Hawthorne in a 6f sprint unable to draw in on December 30^th and was also a vet scratch from a MSW 5f turf sprint at Gulfstream Park on January 26^th.

#2 STAR NATION will make a second route attempt with the rider (TACTIC-) and SLOG problematic at Turfway Park back in late January. While distance is still a test, both sprint races here at Hawthorne in December were finished with a strong GALLOP+ after the wire. 

The Perez pair will be class tested coming back off the layoff to the Special Weight level and could be worth a follow in the right spot for their abilities going forward, especially #6 RUSSIAN HAMMER recording a BTL effort in his debut. 

#6 GLOBAL EMPIRE returns to a route distance for the first time since the “match race” last September. He will also find class relief returning in this race and looks placed where he can compete this afternoon.

#1 CHOCOLATE BUNNY has a “longshot” look in this race. He has run competitive numbers and races on the front end with one of those under Giles over today’s course and distance. He could present further upside from the races here closing out 2022 with the November 11^th race a first start back off a 114-day layoff and flow upgrade setting a Very Fast early pace for the distance. Rider TACTIC- played against him on December 10^th as Centeno tried to rate. The OFR from those two races was higher than today’s event to create subtle class relief today. 

As far as the morning line favorite, #2 MINISTRY OF ART he is capable in this spot, though does not hold any strong edge in this race. His N2 claiming win back on December 18^th was earned with a PERFECT trip and showing up today in this event is a lateral move from the recent Fairgrounds races. His form, figures and RunStyle are no stronger, #5 EMPTY HOLSTER one that has some buried for, to compete in this spot and could find the right race shape for a trip under Roman.

#2 CHICKS FOR FREE looks solid in this race as the projected favorite returning to Hawthorne with solid form from last year and finding class relief from those open company claiming races. His gate (SLOG) issues are noted with that being a potential hurdle with the 5f distance. #6 D’YANK also has some buried form and one to keep on the radar should he get “lost” on the board. He will return today for Martinez and into the softest spot he has run at any point in his career with his sprint OptixFIG from last season stacking up in today’s OFR. 

The pace should be honest with #1 CHANNEL WON and #4 TIZ DEJA BLUE looking to engage early for the lead and #5 CHRISTMAS PRESENT looking for first run on that pair.  #7 Z U SOON comes back to Hawthorne for this race on a current “every other” pattern on the upswing and suggests intent back in at the claiming level. #3 TWO COOKIE RULE ultimately might benefit from this start and added ground as he makes his first start back in 64-days. 

#5 VALIENTLY DISCREET returns for a tag and could be the controlling speed in this race. He was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) in his second start on the lead breaking his maiden on December 3^rd after given some excuse from the November debut when he was very fractious in the GATE and SLOG showing run from off the pace behind PERFECT trip winner, #4 HURTS SO BAD.

#7 RACARINO will give up some recency returning from the 319-day layoff though could be race ready for Gonzalez and returns to take on winners. His form fits with today’s group and can be seen as encouraging they come back for the higher $25k tag whereas a drop would be more concerning. 

#6 BEEASY does not hold any strong edge over the others mentioned. In addition, he gives up recency returning from the extended 331-day layoff and for a claiming tag.

As far as #7 LONG TALL WOMAN she is proven at this level and under Lezcano, factors that could see her stack up the third straight win and run as a short priced favorite. While capable, she will give up recency making this first start back in 100-days noting she did improve with racing last season. In addition, she will return in this spot with the shorter 5f distance than perhaps her ideal and that distance change moves her to Quad IV today, a shift from last year racing as a Quad II Square. 

#6 AVASARALA could look to take advantage as one that carries tactical speed and form under Centeno. She also holds a win over today’s course and condition going back to May 8^th and finished in front of Long Tall Woman back on April 24th.  

Both #4 FOOT RUB LOVE and #8 GO STORMIN GIRL have been slightly outclassed at this Optional Claiming level in the past, though have been able to pick up a minor share. #1 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT could have similar “pace” concerns with today’s shorter distance as a Quad IV Square in addition to the class rise returning to this circuit to keep in mind as far as assessing value.

This is a competitive event to close out the opening day 2023 card. #6 GEMO RAIN could be overlooked in this spot where he has form to compete at this level and at the shorter sprint distance. Positive intent could also be in play as he will make his second start off the layoff for Martinez and perhaps “given” the February 9^th race at Turfway Park when running for the higher $12.5k claiming tag. GEMO RAIN started to see his form tail off after the HS Indy races and the time off to reset and regroup after December 17^th could be key. As far as a trip, his (Gemo Rain) ability to show tactical speed (OptixPLOT) could assist tracking behind the quick (above ParLine Quad I) E/EP runners, #2 CHOPPER and #9 D’FEVER. #5 KING TITO could also fall into a similar stalking trip, though overall is lighter than others in this field on class and speed.

As far as the morning line favorite, #8 RICHIESGOTSWAGGER he is not without a chance, though does run from off the pace and will shorten up today to the 5f distance where trip is key. Looking at the Plot, if making the case for RICHIESGOTSWAGGER, #3 RISKY BOY is shown in a similar position and consistent OptixFIG in today’s OFR with expected value of the two given the shift in the morning line.

#4 BEL BIMBO is worth a mention with some buried form here closing out 2022 though might require a race and more ground. As shown on the Plot has a strong closing kick (Quad IV Square) to come running on late.

#6 FAMILY TIME fits today's conditions and with the timing of the eligibility with her most recent wins back in November. She will require a return to that top form, though to her credit is moving forward with each start this meet. 

#2 MISTY VEIL also fits today's conditions returning to the starter allowance level off a wide trip last month and where she recorded her most recent win over today's course and distance last May. 

Flurry Racing is represented by a pair: #5 PRETTY XTREME with the barn change to Cox and class change from the higher level allowance races this year will look to move up today. #7 GOOD PENNY will take a slight class rise to run here protected though has held her form this meet under Arrieta and expect similar today. 

#9 PEACEFUL MOMENT fits as the favorite logically with current form (upside of an every other pattern coming into this race), class relief and foundation around two turns.

#1 I GOT A NAME will find class relief on a progressive pattern and class relief with the route foundation coming back from the 2/17 $30k maiden claiming event. 

The stretch out in distance is new for many in this field and #8 BLUE COWGIRL being one of those. She has foundation and shown improvement this meet and wheels right back in just 9-days from a BTL effort in that 5th place finish showing run under poor WEATHER conditions. Rival #7 OLD SCHOOL FLASH has numbers that stack up on par exiting the same 2/24 race though has had more experience and to this point the connections have not tried to stretch her out to a route playing towards intent. 

#3 SHESABIDFORMIDABLE could move up in today's race as she makes her second start back from the layoff and dropping in for a claiming tag with numbers on par. 

Green will send out #1 EMERALD PRINCESS and #6 DISTORTED SECRETS and could have some positive intent by a barn still hungry for the first win of the meet. Distorted Secrets overall is light and must improve off her races this year, whereas EMERALD PRINCESS could see that move forward today with the foundation in this third start of the cycle with back numbers that fit on par. 

Emerald Princess exits a common race with #2 CARPE HORSESHOE the winner on 2/24. While a solid effort on the day that would have her right back in the mix here, the timing is noted and effort could be taxing as she had to do all the dirty work up front with the race starting to slow late. The pace should be honest with #7 EMPIRE PASS in the field, one with some concerns making her first start off the claim, a significant drop and also lacking finish (NO_FINISH, GATE) without excuse. 

#8 LA MORENA could be overlooked off her current running lines and finishing position. There is more form to that story and should have pace here for her late (Quad IV Square) run. 

This is a competitive event and a lot of attention could land on #1 CORONA BOLT returning in this spot. He might have been exposed on class and distance in the Southwest (G3) with the return to sprinting a welcome change. With that said, he has other hurdles taking on older for the first time and with his forwardly placed EP RunStyle at the rail projects to be joined by many in this group sharing a similar RunStyle looking to keep the pace (Fire) contested. 

Santana will stick with #4 JOKING WAY noting he had been aboard #2 FAVORITE OUTLAW when racing here last season and recording some of his stronger numbers. Favorite Outlaw must return to top form today to compete and will give up recency in this first start back in 172-days. JOKING WAY will look to pair up wins and could see him do just that as one that has run well in each of his four starts and did not run back to a top effort (that top finish in his 10/30 Special Weight win) on 1/20. 

#7 IGNITIS has not shown progression as an older horse and while he is not expected to take that leap forward today, he comes into this race with form, returning to a sprint and as noted with the Contentious expected pace, should have pace to close into. 

The runners in this field all looking for their first win of the year and for most looking to get back to top form makes this a tricky event. Going outside the box, #3 SPARK could present a move forward with some form this year and back numbers while picking up Saez. #8 OPTIMUS KAT could be taken a bit more "logical" with his back numbers and current third-off pattern returning to a route distance. #9 PADDY O'DINI was off 643-days before returning last month and seems a positive given that time away to see him back in 30-days. He has back numbers that fit on par and sneaky form at a route distance. 

#1 SUMMER IN MALIBU projects to return to a top effort with class relief and distance change wheeling back for this event. He has buried form from the EX-EXCUSE on 12/18 to showing speed in a DUEL to finish in a BLANKET at the wire on 2/5. 

#2 VICTORY MARCH will find class relief in this second start off the claim for McKnight, a barn that has been sending out live runners as of late. Victory March showed run and upgraded WIDE against (X_FLOW) last out though has that tendency to break slow (SLOG) and that could be an issue for today's 5.5f distance. 

#9 TOWN BRANCH has not shown much progression as an older horse to justify the change today to run for a claiming tag looking to place this runner where he fits. 

Today's Special Weight event has the conditions for horses that sold at auction for $75k or less and some in this group will find subtle class relief from prior Special Weight races without stipulations. #11 DIVINELY BOLT being one of those runners and following her back in California has required class relief for quite some time and should move up naturally in today's group. While #1 SACRED WISH might not have run in the strongest Special Weight race back on 2/11, she recorded a solid effort/OptixFIG making up ground into a Slow early pace with that race stacking up with today's group.

#10 WRECKING HAVOC will find a slight step up in class as she was claimed last out by top connections for $30k to race protected here using that eligibility. She has held her form in the first two starts with prior trainer Calhoun sending out well-meant runners here as that is noted she might have to show more and step up in order to earn that top spot. 

There are two recent maiden winners that project to get attention off their efforts/figures coming into this race. #3 SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY was dominant over the 2/9 field at Fair Grounds, though did not catch a strong group and will be tested on this circuit, field and in terms of timing coming back in three weeks. #6 PUNCHBOWL showed a lot of run to overcome a slow start to get the win on 2/11. She will be tested here while perhaps not the strongest Special Weight group, a stronger group than the ones She's Lookin Lucky faced. PUNCHBOWL also wheels right back in three weeks and must hold form while making the transition stretching out in distance. 

McPeek will show up with a pair giving the edge in recency to #9 STELLAR LADY coming off a good return effort last month. #7 CORNINGSTONE is a quality IN-bred that has been competitive against open company, though does require a top effort returning off the 151-day layoff here. #1 NEED SOME MONEY also wheels back from the 2/4 common race and off a less than ideal trip Bejarano will look to improve on here. 

#4 IKE WAZOWSKI was no match for Chupapi Munyayo in his debut back on 2/17 though was not disgraced staying on as the BOS and showing early speed first out. On the opposite end of the field, #1 MADMARTIGAN broke slow though put in a sneaky good late run (GALLOP+) and could see a move forward off that initial experience. 

#7 READY SHOES could be the "wild card" in this race and overlooked from the 2/17 event. He is on a subtle every other pattern and moved forward with similar timing on 1/13 when running against open company and recorded a solid speed figure - a number that stacks up with many in this group. 

#10 CLASSY SOCKS recorded a new top effort showing speed over an off-track just last week. His form overall fits at this level and with today's field though projects to be a shorter number than at any other time on the track. #8 FOUR DICE also wheels right back from that common race where he again will be tested for class though given a mention with the BTL effort on debut against maiden claiming company.