Handicapper Tips & Picks

A very tough race to kick things off for the live season. Bottom level maiden claimers lacking in form along with a couple of first timers. Had to dive into the replay machine to make a case for 4-STRONGENOUGHSTORM but one can be made. In her debut she got away well and showed early speed through the opening half before tiring. She was in over her head the next two starts but again showed some early foot in both. She comes into here off a decent gate drill as maybe she can sneak away and steal this race. 5-ARNEIS has been racing into January, posting some mixed results in Kentucky. Speed figure wise she is the fastest of the group and does race for a barn that wins at a high percentage. The question that arises is how badly overbet will she be? 2-EVIE JEAN is yet to finish in the top three in 14 career starts but that could change today. She has a pair of works leading toward the return, most recently posting a respectable half mile drill. The running style works against her though as she may be left with a lot of ground to make up late in this short sprint.

Sometimes the favorite is just the best horse in the race. That appears to be the case here with 3-TRIPLE CHROME. There is a little speed to the inside from 1-Sunday Mischief but that one also has a tendency to fold up when headed. Triple Chrome won't be too far back early, should be able to push things along and benefits from a recent race at Turfway in regards to fitness. 7-TOP NOTE can show speed around two turns but is more likely to take back in here and look to run on late. He comes from a very solid barn and is fit off races in New Orleans. The one knock is the recent drop in that last race to $5k after being claimed for $20k in October and now in for a lower level tag once again. 5-TEA AFTER BALLET could be worth a look at a price if the pace does happen to hook up in here. He does not like to win, doing so just once in 27 career starts but nobody in here is truly consistent. Look for him to be picking off horses in the lane.

Two Rivelli entrants in here but wouldn't be surprised in the least if only 5-CUPID'S NUMBER runs. 2-Larry;s Lunchbox doesn't show a workout since mid-November and may not quite yet be ready. Cupid's Number gets Lasix for the debut, comes in off back to back solid gate drills as well as getting E.T. in the saddle. Expect to see some speed from him and a good performance at first asking. 1-MINING CAMP may be worth a look at a price. He ran on closing day and got quite the education with a very tough trip. He has since worked twice toward his return, most recently posting a solid half mile drill on February 26. 4-READY MADE could be the other to add to the early pace scenario. He chased in his final two starts of the fall meet and has a couple of workouts toward the return. The spot suits and let's see what kind of action he takes.

This spot could come down to fitness and value today. 3-SHARP AZ NAILS is definitely fit, coming off a pair of mile starts at Turfway the last two months. The most recent effort was solid as he battled early and ran on late. Fully expect the potential to wire this field. 7-CRONUS has raced with gaps and mixed results throughout his career. After being claimed for $50k last February he posted three respectable races at Oaklawn before getting a lengthy layoff. The January return was disappointing but he comes to Hawthorne finding a bit easier competition. Let's see just how much action he takes in the end. 2-STAR NATION just got started at the end of his two-year-old season, running a couple of decent races before getting a two-turn try at Turfway in January. Gate issues the last two starts provide some excuses but still not expecting much in regards to early speed. He does appear to be fit though as he should be picking off horses in the lane.

This is an intriguing race for a lower level claimer as pace scenario and smart riding decisions will be the key. With the potential for three horses to possibly try for the front, 5-EMPTY HOLSTER may be the one to get the dream trip and run by everyone in the lane. His effort at this level two back wasn't bad and I like the consistent workout pattern toward his return. Roman was aboard in that December 10 start and gets the call once again. Much like Empty Holster, 2-MINISTRY OF ART is another that should be sitting back off the early pace and looking to move into the lane. While the most recent effort was disappointing, the three races prior were all solid. He has found the board in half of his 14 Hawthorne starts and may be able to get the jump on Empty Holster into the lane. 7-ARGYBARGY BUCK is a tough on to figure out in here. He was a speedy type of sprinter much of 2022 and recently ran a solid race at a mile in New Orleans in his last. I think his best chance to win will be if he settles back early and looks to run on in the lane but E.T. is very much an early pace type of rider. If they hustle away and find company early, it could compromise his chances.

Looks like the potential for an early pace battle between Channel Won and Tiz Deja Blue. If that's the case, the perfect setup may present itself to 2-CHICKS FOR FREE. A winner in his only start at the distance, he has enough tactical speed to find a good spot early and run on in the lane. A pair of workouts off his January 18 race will have him set up for this spot today. 6-D' YANK is another who may benefit from a quick and contested early pace. He has run well over this track and although he has never raced at this distance he does have a win at 5 1/2 furlongs against much better company than what he sees today. The only concern in this spot is just one drill coming off the layoff. 5-CHRISTMAS PRESENT has been excellent in his Hawthorne starts, finding the board in 8 of his 9 races. He is likely to rate a bit closer to the early pace in here but appears fit off three February drills leading into the spot. He may present some price potential today.

This is easily my least favorite race to handicap on the card. It's a race with a lot of layoff horses that are dropping in class along with the potential for 6 of 8 in this field to show early speed. I'm hopeful that the outside draw will force 8-U S HONOUR NAP to have to take back at the start, with the hopes of dropping in to save ground through the turn. He has been away since a maiden score last August which is concerning but has also remained at Hawthorne throughout the winter, working consistently, and quickly toward his return.  There may be more value here as well as Santiago rides the other Becker, Valiantly Discreet over this one. 7-RACARINO is another that presents some unknowns as he has been away since last April. Claimed for just $7,500 at the end of 2021, he made just three starts last year, breaking his maiden while posting a strong figure in his final race before the layoff. The running style suits and he has three drill toward the return, but will he need a race coming back before he is truly ready is the question. 4-HURTS SO BAD had a nice maiden score here last November before racing with mixed results in the four starts following that effort. He shows a pair of works toward the return and gets Centeno in the saddle, a rider who quietly had an excellent meet here last fall.

Nobody should be sent away as a heavy favorite in this spot but there is some value potential in regards to 3-RISKY BOY. He posted some solid efforts here last fall, defeating similar at the end of the meet. He was full of run late in his most recent race at Mahoning Valley and should get enough pace to close into here. A nice work off that race makes him a threat today. 7-DEVIL'S RULE is another that should get a good stalking trip, but is likely better to look to underneath in the gimmicks. He is winless in 24 Hawthorne starts, finding the board in 9 of those 24 races. Only one drill toward the return but that was a snappy gate work. 8-RICHIESGOTSWAGGER often times takes a good amount of action and has won both starts at the distance. The concern here is he could be overbet and with this large field will have to weave his way through traffic in the lane if he's to win.