Handicapper Tips & Picks

Assessing the favorite, #1 IT'S GREEK TO ME there could be some "knocks" as far as the recent layoff lines, though comparing her form at today's N2 claiming level to the others in the field, her form stands out over those others. That goes back to last season with the two Hawthorne starts from 11/18 and 12/4 recorded B- OptixGRADES and OptixFIG of 76-77, figures that stack up on the higher side of today's 77-69 OFR. By contrast #2 SWEET FRAULINE ran in both of those events recording slightly lower OFig (shown on Past 3 Runlines alongside the FREE OptixPLOT HAW data) and C+ OptixGRADES.

#6 MUD HUT joined that pair back on 12/4 coming back from the 176-day layoff and that return race assisted her off the bench and when moving forward in her next start on 12/18 and could see that same pattern moving forward into the meet. #3 FROST WARRIOR also appears another that could use that same pattern getting a start under her belt. Klopp, a top trainer at HS Indy shows up with #4 OCEAN HONEY to make her local debut and the sophomore is lighter on numbers. Six-year-old mare #5 CESSO has a different challenge coming back today off the 313-day layoff while also taking on open company here. 

Following the familiar strategy of "assessing the favorite" #1 NIFF could win this but... there are some questions as she returns from the 272-day layoff with gaps in the works returning off the layoff and showing up with the class drop. In addition she was entered last month (2/16) at Turfway Park for the $15k claiming tag ($28k purse) and was listed trainer scratch. Her early speed perhaps poses the biggest threat in today's race shape, shorter distance and compact field, at the same time she has come up short at a shorter price in the past.

#2 SMILE AT THE STORM caught a full field closing day (12/31) in the finale. She showed some brief speed before fading in that group and should note the winner, Manhattan Legacy came from a mid-pack stalking trip to win. It was tough to read the intention for Smile at the Storm that day dropping in class, making her first start for Quinonez though did take some wagering support given her assigned 30-1 morning line in that race. She has some back numbers that stack right up with this group and perhaps with more time in the Quinonez barn is ready to return to that form. 

#4 FIELD DAISEY also returning from that 12/31 event had her work cut out for her draw well outside and showed up with a solid effort (another from just off the pace) though with a WIDE trip gaining ground for place. 

#6 IRISH HALO arguably turned in her best effort of the 2022 Hawthorne fall/winter meet in the first part of the season with a strong effort and tough beat in the BLANKET finish on September 24th. She struggled to find her form the rest of the season though perhaps has that same "race ready" run coming back fresh for Perez. 

The good #1 SILVER MOON ROAD from last year will take some effort to get beat today. While he will be required to run fresh, the time off might have been required and is encouraging that he remains protected in this starter allowance condition. His early speed is dangerous and requires the others to press or try and run him down. With that said, he projects to be a very short price in this field as one that appears very, very obvious. 

#2 TRY TRY AGAIN will run to his namesake in this spot; and while he might not be on the level of the "best" Silver Moon Road, he does bring local Hawthorne experience of the two. Try Try Again appears to hold a fondness for this racing surface with some of his more competitive races and higher figures over this Cicero dirt main track. He is going to need more than a top effort, he will need some racing luck and help from the others in this field to contest the pace and hope to get the trip. 

#5 FEVER NATION looks legit in this spot and as the favorite. His debut (SLOG closing ground into pacesetting chalk winner) was his only race running against statebred Special Weight company. He turned in an honest account of himself in both statebred stakes race as well as the 12/30 Special Weight race against open company and clear place behind his stablemate winner, Sivako. 

Olaf Hernandez coming off a solid opening day of riding could be the key to get the right trip and handling for #1 SUPERSTAR DIVA. She has some tactical speed (quad I Square at the ParLine) that could allow her to track/pressure #3 FOGGY KITTEN and #8 FIRST SQUADRON (even #2 SINGING ALLI if she shows speed today). 

#6 FRIEND is looking for that right stalking trip and for those to the lead to take something out of each other in order to pick them up in the lane. From further back #4 WANNA HAVE FUN might need the race more ground and even more pace though clear she has a strong late kick (though also a habit of breaking slow/SLOG) and can IMPROVE off the 9th place run that "closed" out her 2022 season. 

Both #5 ONASA and #7 WAR ROOM have early speed and with today's shorter distance likely to engage early. Both runners will exit races at the Fair Grounds where War Room ran in the rain (WEATHER) back on 2/11 and as part of the early pace that day is given a "flow upgrade" with the race slowing late and the top four finishing together at the wire. As far as Onasa, the form from the other runners exiting the 1/21 race has held up and holding his form fits with today's group.

#8 FITZEA is the "wild card" he will make his local debut and first start of the season with grow potential coming back from the 166-day layoff. His work appear steady and the timing seems key to have him ready to race early in the meet. Centeno, is another rider that came ready to ride with a strong showing on opening day and has the call here. 

#6 VINTAGE VINYL is an older horse and maiden coming back off the layoff. He tends to be one that "what you see is what you get" as he does not appear to have much upside at this point or move forward potential from Amoss even with the barn change. 

The rail draw, early speed, 5f distance and today's race complexion could be the edge for #1 CINDY'S G MAN on the lead to take control start to finish. As shown on the OptixPLOT he has the controlling speed to the first call (furthest left) and to the second call (y-axis/above ParLine) though not the strongest finishing ability (Circle) suggesting he will need to use his speed to clear and get some separation early to hold late. 

#6 EAST OF INDIA has been running closer to the lead in his two recent Turfway races and those efforts could set him up for this race. He has the ability to show early speed though better in a stalking role with a "target" and has that here. 

Trainer Brian Cook has two of the confirmed pacesetters in this race with #6 LOOKING SALTY and #7 WICKED SURPRISE in this race. Both have similar form at this level and exiting the closing day (12/31) maiden claiming race where the top three finishers ran on from off-the-pace. 

In terms of class the change is in play #8 SOVIET STANDARD in terms of purse, though does step up to a higher race par running in against older. The opposite for #1 ANUNKA as he finds a lower OFR for his return and slight change in purse/claiming tag. 

The change in class is also in play for #4 DERRICKS MEDALLION shipping in from Gulfstream Park. While he will be out to still prove who and how much run he has, it must be noted the 2/8 race has been productive with improving figures for the runners next out including one next out winner and another that finished second with a "winning" type place finish and the other to finish third, respectively. 

#1 LEVY projects to be the more fancied part of the entry given the class drop along with the current form and figures. The all around changes should move them up in this field while they are unlikely to move up at this point in their race career just need to find the right spot. 

#2 FIVE O FOX returns to a route distance for the first time since their December debut. That race was a higher class level and tougher all around running at the higher $50k maiden condition and should carry some fitness from the recent sprints into this stretch out. #6 LOBO IRISH has not had the luck of the draw starting out 2023 and suffering ground loss (WIDE/X_WIDE) in both race though at the same time still showing interest. 

As far as #1 LIARS CLUB he is capable though has been stuck at the N2 condition for quite some time and has lacked any real strong excuse keeping him from the win. #8 MAJOR CONTENDER could turn into that for this race and off his form finding class relief, albeit subtle, from the Turfway races and back to the Oaklawn main track where he broke his maiden last year. #6 HAPPY BOY ROCKET will be tested for stamina back around two turns, though this distance does appear the plan by Asmussen noting an entry back on 2/26 at 8.5f though a stewards scratch that day and without much hesitation is back in the entries and in this event. 

#5 KING DOODLE looked to require the short distance following his races closing out 2022 in Kentucky. While he did find that change this year at Oaklawn, he has had some subtle trips and needs an aggressive ride and forwardly placed run and perhaps a clean break (something he did not have on 2/17) with the shift off the rail will be the key. 

#7 DANCIN ROCKET returns to face open company and the same conditions/par from 2/4. There was a longer than normal delay as one had to return to the paddock and the horses were held up at the gate for around 10mins and especially noted in this case with DANCIN ROCKET given a pre-race WARM_UP. #8 NATORADE showed a sneaky CLOSE on 2/20 and could build off that debut and a better draw in a less full field. 

This is a competitive race with a case to be made for many in this field. #3 VIOLENT GIGI has some buried early speed and that could be key for his trip in today's race shape. He will face many in this field returning from the common race back on 2/20. As far as race result, #5 CHAPEL BARN could appear the most "obvious" with the place finish, though is one that has shown an "every other" pattern with the upswing for last months event. Show finishing #4 SIDETOWN was doing enough to hold position and likely to face more early pace pressure here. That could open the door for #2 FREUDIAN FATE to step up in the second start off the layoff and from the WIDE trip last month. He requires a top effort though has races to date that fit on par. Similar can be said for #7 MYSTERY MAN one that is, in addition, moving forward with each race in his third start of the form cycle. 

Tough to hold the Dogwood (G3) against #5 GUNNING as that race was followed up by the layoff she will return from today. Her form prior makes her a main contender and this spot using her conditions of eligibility to regain some confidence heading into the 2023 racing year.

This is another competitive event with many ways to land. A couple runners that could present upside while also get overlooked off their running lines and finishing positions: #7 HONEYCAMP will make her second start of the cycle and first in for the maiden claiming tag. She raced wide on debut and made a RUSH into the Fast early pace in the recent 2/18 start. The connections looked to have #6 ELMO'S SECRET pointed to this meet and giving her a start back in November at Remington Park. She was entered twice in December before the January 14th race and while it is tough to see "on paper" she did made a brief RUSH into a Very Fast early pace before losing ground. She has been given time since and returns with a rider change. #2 BROOKE'S ALL IN turned in a BTL debut and had to deal with KICKBACK after a SLOG on 2/18. She is another in this field that will shift to the maiden claiming level for the first time from Special Weight company. The TROUBLE+ was a little more "obvious" for #11 RELENTLESS ROCKET and likely to see that reflected in the odds. 

Lukas is not afraid to run horses and take shots and noted as he returns with #8 GAME KEEPER, a maiden in this allowance event. As far as GAME KEEPER this will be just his second start and had a subtle trip in the debut just 12-days ago. As far as this individual he carried himself well training last year at Saratoga and presented as one that is suited to a route distance. 

#2 HEROIC MOVE will also make a second start though under a solid ride/TACTIC+ and effort was able to secure the win first out. They wheel back for this race in just 19-days and that timing could suggest the horse came out of the race well and is still holding his form. 

#1 MENDELSSOHNS MARCH was promoted to the win in his debut on 2/2 at the Fair Grounds, though his effort was game all around and the top two were in a tight photo for the win. He will be tested on this circuit and with today's surface switch. McPeek will also return with #6 B MINOR and shifting back to the dirt, the surface of his maiden win. This will be his first start of the season and coming back as a sophomore, time he would require to develop and improve as necessary with his races last year "lighter" than others in this field. 

#3 SILVER HEIST will also ship in from the Fair Grounds exiting the Risen Star (G2) stakes. The connections might be looking for where he belongs as it was a tough read in the first two starts finishing both races in a BLANKET finish. 

#2 KAVOD could have a pace advantage and might need to take it. Without an aggressive ride from Cabrera #1 FULL AUTHORITY, #4 ONE FOR RICHIE and #6 SEVEN NATION ARMY could move up to press and KAVOD appears to need the ideal trip to win. 

#3 PAYNE also needs the right trip and pace to close into, something he had in his favor back on 1/28. #5 HEART RHYTHM will exit stakes company and could assist this one as he has held his form and figures. It should be noted he was entered in an allowance here on 2/17 though unable to race as a vet scratch that day. 

Number wise #4 ETERNALLY GRATEFUL has consistently recorded some of the higher figures in this field and competitive races at a similar level sprinting this season. That combination could see him catch the right group on the day, though with the expected short price his tendency to break slow/SLOG and run from off the pace should be considered along with the price. #1 CHARLIE WHISKEY also appears to find support and the class drop could be what he needs but this move is pretty severe for just a second start where it appears the connections are just ready to move on. Similar attention could land on #11 GONE AGAIN given a subtle trip last out and with the cutback here for Becker though noted a step up in class all around. 

#2 WELLWRIT will wheel right back for this second start with some changes from the debut just 19-days ago. In that debut he ran against Special Weight company at a mile with obvious drop and cut back. Wellwrit did briefly show some early foot on a faster early pace for the distance and that could be what they expect again with the blinkers on. A rider change is also in play with G. Saez taking over as Bowen was up for the debut and also had been aboard #3 TAP THAT DIAL on 2/24, though will stick with #9 DOUBLE STRIKE today.

#9 DOUBLE STRIKE looked to move up back at the maiden claiming level on 1/22.  Things did not go as planned as he had early TROUBLE forced out WIDE on the first turn and might have required the time off since to recover from that contact and still presents a move forward. 

1-IT’S GREEK TO ME could be a standout despite the short sprint distance. She’s just not as quick as many in here. However, the quickest horses weren’t necessarily the winners in Sunday’s races. Can’t say this filly has a true class edge but she ran well versus similar company while most in here have been trying to earn their second victory at lower levels. 2-SWEET FRAULEIN, like top choice, didn’t seem to handle the company or the surface at Turfway in last but she did finish third at this level, here, two starts back. And, her speed figures are higher than those of the rest of the fields’ except for those of top choice. 6-MUD HUT finished second in her last two starts. She’s taking on better here and making her first start in two months but she did have a couple good drills during the break. Could be the best of the rest.

1-NIFF hasn’t raced since June but he was training for her comeback before the break and she’s been training very well since. She won her last race on the turf but she broke her maiden on dirt. Would imagine that she’ll try to lead all the way. 4-FIELD DAISEY finished second in her last two at this level and in three of her last five races. Unlike top choice, she’ll do her best running late. Makes of her first start since December but could pick up where she left off. 6-IRISH HALO finished last meet in poor form but she came off a layoff at the beginning of that meet and flew in the stretch to just miss. Could be poised for a late surprise if a fast and heated pace develops.

1-SILVER MOON ROAD ran ok at Turfway in his last couple starts but his prior races in Indiana were incredible. He reeled off six straight victories. Don’t know if he’ll be able to regain that form and don’t know how he’ll handle this track but you have to hope he’ll regain that form with the return to dirt. Could put away the rest of the speed. 4-DARK HEDGES figures prominently. He won his first start for this barn to end the fall meet and they came back with a strong second at Turfway. He’s a versatile runner which has to help. 5-PERFECT WAGER raced primarily in routes at the end of 2022 but he seemed to be more effective as a sprinter early in the year. Consistent drills during the break should have kept him in form. Expecting him to come running late.

3-FOGGY KITTEN gets the nod. She had three sharp drills during February which should have set her up perfectly for her 2023 debut. She does like the front end but she’ll have plenty of company early. No guarantee that she’ll outlast them. 1-SUPERSTAR DIVA finished in the money all her races last year, with wins in two of them. She owns decent speed but isn’t likely to try for the front end. Instead, she’ll be tracking the pace waiting for the front runners to run out of gas. 8-FIRST SQUADRON fits. She doesn’t win often but she does earn plenty of paychecks. Could easily fill out the vertical gimmicks.

5-ONASA stopped badly in a two-turn race at Fair Grounds in his last start but he was far more competitive in the first two races of his career. Turns back in distance to make his local debut. Seems to be meeting the easiest field of his career. Probable favorite could cross the finish line first. 7-WAR ROOM owns decent speed. He hasn’t been really competitive so far but, as with top choice, this field appears to be far easier than those he’s been facing. Could awaken. 6-VINTAGE VINYL is worth another look. He hasn’t raced since September but he’s been training well and he’ll be making his first start for this barn, which was the leading barn, by wins, in Indiana last year. He’s also scheduled to be ridden by one of Indiana’s leading jockeys.

2-C F V RED NOVA came back from a lengthy layoff to run well here last fall. He finally won his final start of 2022 but got claimed from that race. He has, however, continues to train well over the winter. Could pick up right where he left off. 1-CINDY’S G MAN will have to be caught. A little concerned that he hadn’t worked consistently during the break but the cut back to five furlongs could greatly help the cause. 4-TALKTOEACHOTHER tired badly when meeting allowance company at Mahoning in last but he just missed in his previous start facing rivals similar to these. He’s has some versatility though he seems to prefer the front end. Square price could make him the play.

4-DERRICKS MEDALLION drops in class for his local debut and his first start for this barn. He didn’t show a thing in his first two starts but ships from a much tougher circuit. Expect him to contend for the lead. 7-WICKED SURPRISE was claimed from last and moves up in class. But he is one of the quicker members of this field. He had been tiring late but at this short sprint distance, he could be competitive all the way. 8-SOVIET STANDARD is another dropping to meet far easier rivals. Would like him better if he had more than one drill coming off the break but could be given the benefit of the doubt.

As we get ready to kick off another live racing week we should look back at opening day and make note that the track played very evenly to kick off the racing season. The temps are forecasted to be similar for this card with winds out of the East, which means a tailwind in the lane. While I was hopeful to try to beat the favorite in the opener, I don't expect that to happen as 1-IT'S GREEK TO ME looks quite tough to kick off the day. A horse that came to Hawthorne last fall from Southern California, she took well to the track, running a pair of good races against similar company.  Her last looks ugly on paper but take into regard that was with an outside draw, going longer and over a synthetic surface. A pair of works since that start has her well positioned to win in here. 6-MUD HUT poses a pace threat from the outside as she picks up Emigh in the saddle. The like race with It's Greek to Me on December 4 had Mud Hut six lengths back at the wire but her final two starts of the meet were competitive and she has a couple of works for the comeback. 2-SWEET FRAULEIN was who I initially was hoping could pull off the upset but it appears she may need a start to be in fit to ready form. After a January 12 start in Kentucky she also took some time off. With only one workout toward the return it looks like she may need a race.

I was able to catch 5-TAP N TWINE at the right time last December as she turned things around in that December 9 race and pulled off the upset score. I also liked that she came back off that effort and posted another good race on closing day of the meet. Since that start she has gotten a couple of works toward the return and looks to be one of only a couple in here with speed. The hope is that she rates just off the pace of 1-NIFF who looks to be the horse to beat from the inside. Niff closed out the spring meet last year on a high note, winning on the turf, but has been away since that start. She has some spaced out workouts toward the return and the speed figures are well ahead of most in this spot. There won't be any value though and although she will be tough to beat, there's enough questions that need to be answered to take a look elsewhere. 4-FIELD DAISEY was a bit disappointing last fall at times as she looked to get perfect setups in multiple races. While putting together four runner-up efforts, it appeared she was running on just a bit too late. I do expect to see her picking off horses in the lane, but at five furlongs she may run out of real estate to get up in time.

Much like the opener on the card, there are times when the likely winner is the favorite and checks all the proper boxes. That appears to be the case here as 5-FEVER NATION should be very tough to kick off the meet. After a good effort in the Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity last fall, he ran a solid race against open maiden company to close out the meet. He faces state-breds here, has worked well and consistently toward the return, and looks to show speed in a race lacking of pace. There won't be much value but I think he's a single in all multi-race wagers. 1-IRISH BRUTE debuts for a barn that is very good about having horses ready to win early. While I'm never a fan of the inside draw for first timers, I am a fan of the consistent workouts in Arkansas leading to this spot. With Baird aboard the intent should be to get away quickly from the inside. The main question we have to find out is if he is quick enough to try to go with Fever Nation early or if he looks to find position and rate and try to run on late. 4-DASH TO THE CASH has really been a hard luck horse as he has ability but just hasn't been able to get that first victory. Defeated while odds on in his final three starts of the fall, he has excuses in all of those races. He has only one drill toward the return but it was a good workout. I just worry that his late move could come too late at this short sprint distance.

This race kicks off what could be a fun late Pick 4 sequence (15% takeout) as I would likely look to single in here and spread over the final three races. Everything looks to line up for a victory for 3-FOGGY KITTEN as she makes her first start off the year. She has a good summer in 2022 and although she was defeated in her last three starts at Hawthorne, two of those races came against tougher company and the final race was a pace battle where she never caught a breather. Today she has the speed to clear while unchallenged early. She has three drills leading toward the return and she gets Centeno in the saddle, who won three races in a row on opening day. Expect a good performance today. 1-SUPERSTAR DIVA is another from the Zawitz barn, who I made note of in my race 3 analysis. She likely isn't fast enough to challenge early for the lead but she also shouldn't be too far back. It was good to see jock Olaf Hernandez in the winners circle in the finale on Sunday as he gets the call in this spot. 6-FRIEND is another possible price play from the Javier Hernandez barn who may be worth a look underneath in the gimmicks. Just like Sweet Fraulein in the opener, this one had a winter race at Turfway before getting a little time off and coming back with just one work. She is likely to sit back off the pace and could pick off some runners late.

From the start of this meet we have seen horses already returning from New Orleans fit and ready to race. That is the case here for 7-WAR ROOM as he has run some respectable races against solid competition. While I think there are a couple others who may be quicker to the front today, he may find himself in a perfect stalking spot as he looks to run on late. In a interesting move, he was taken off Lasix prior to his last race and improved as he appeared to have more left in the tank nearing the wire. With an honest pace ahead of him, 4-J J'S SOLUTION could potentially pick off horses through the lane. He closed well in multiple starts last fall and although winless from 17 races may be able to sneak into the gimmicks at a good price. 5-ONASA ran a pair of solid races to open his career before tossing a clunker in his most recent race. Give him another look though as Rivelli got a very good performance out of Act a Fool on opening day, a horse that won following a terrible effort in the race prior. The only question is what the price will be as he could take a ton of action in here.

This is the race on the card where any horse can win. There appears to be three with speed as I am expecting a contested pace upfront. If that turns out to be the case, 2-C F V RED NOVA may be sitting on a big race as he comes in fit off three drills toward the return.  He raced well off  long layoff last fall and looked to have no issues with the shorter sprint distance. Jock Colon rode a winner on opening day and I am always a fan of a rider keeping a mount off a claim, something that occurs here. 6-EAST OF INDIA merits a look as the move to the Hawthorne dirt could be beneficial. He ran a pair of solid races last summer in Kentucky and comes off two good synthetic performances where he stalked and ran on late. Look for him to tuck in just behind the early pace and look to get the jump on the closers in the lane. 5-SHANGHAI SILVER has a running style very similar to East of India as he likely won't be on the lead but won't be too far back either. Gerald Butler liked him enough to claim him back last winter as the only concern may be just one workout leading toward the return.

Bottom level maidens could lead to chaos to close out the card as there's not a ton in regards to form in here. There's a few with the potential to show early speed but I tend to wonder if 8-SOVIET STANDARD could be in a position to clear and steal this race. He made two starts against tougher here last fall but showed improved speed in his last start of the meet. He was a factor well into the lane in that spot as the class drop, combined with shorter distance today could add up to a big effort. The only concern is only one workout toward the return. 2-CHIEF MYSTIQUE also poses a price threat as he has shown signs of some ability in recent races. His final start of the fall meet was an improvement and he followed that with a respectable effort at Mahoning Valley in his most recent start. He has posted a good workout off that race and may come running late in the lane in here. 5-C F V NOBODYCARES is another of the Gonzalez trained horses returning off a long layoff. That didn't stop Racarino from winning on opening day off a similar layoff as he was game to the wire. Consistent works leading toward the return make him worth the look.

P 6 R Bazingga 1 Four For Orr 4 Chocolate Crackers

T 1 Royalty Agreement 3 Daisy Day 6 Muscling Vegas

P 4 Lifeguard 1 The Devil You Know 7 Bluemoon Bayama

T 10 Busy Making Deals 3 Angelwithattitude 6 Downstairs Party

P 4 Editors Choice 1 Dakota Shadow 8 Myoutsidevoice

T 3 Flying Formation 2 Bella Cavalla 1 Give Me Karats

P 10 Sunshineinmypocket 9 Golden Leader 8 Reys N A Rocket

T 5 Bar Brawl 3 Jeronimo 4 Lava Field

P 7 Thundering Jim 3 Bad Eye Bill 4 Mach Impact

P 7 Dana Salaam 1 Runaway Heiress 8 Woodmere Stella