Handicapper Tips & Picks

Trying to determine a pace scenario for the opener as there isn't a ton in her in regards to early speed. With the class edge and the ability to show speed, have to think that 5-SHACKLEFORD STRONG will be sent for the top and look to wire this field.  He made just two starts in 2022 before returning to Oaklawn this winter. He did flash early foot in each race before giving way but both came against much better company. With the class relief, along with fitness and distance, I expect he can clear in here and never look back. 4-TAPIT SAM ran well during the fall meet before grabbing the N2L condition at Turfway on February 3. He has found the board in all three starts at the distance but is likely to need some early pace to chase in here. 1-DEORA STORE ran well in a pair of starts at this level last fall before holding his own while stepping up against allowance company in his final start of the meet. He's another though that needs pace to chase and may not find a ton of it in here. Two good works toward the return are a plus but he may be looking as a slightly better play underneath in the gimmicks.

Despite the shorter field this is a good, competitive race with all six in with a shot. Looks back at the replays, I really liked the effort in the final start of the fall meet from 3-JEMEZ FALLS. That race was only her second career start as she faced open-company. She steadied early in the race and dropped briefly to the back. I like how she split horses first into the turn and again at the top of the lane. She raced a bit greenly in the stretch before running on late. Three works coming into here along with the potential for a decent amount of early pace in the race could benefit her chances. 1-MOM'S KINGDOM looks to show speed from the rail as she picks up Mojica for this start. She has worked consistently through the winter following that start and should benefit from the two horses just to her outside unlikely to show much early speed. 2-PRADA'S MIRACLE shortens back up following three routes during the fall meet. Her two races on the grass were decent but her final race of the meet was a bit disappointing. Turf may turn out to be her likely destination but she's fit coming into her as it is worth giving her a look on the class drop.

All of the pace is to the outside in here as the combination of Tracy and Centeno looks to team up once again after winning last weekend. 6-K C'S FIRST B M W has had mixed results in his last five, due to some gate issues. He stumbled and lost the rider in a start last June then followed that effort with a maiden score. He was declared a non-starter in his August 11 start as he was completely unprepared as the gates sprung, with the rider climbing off as the gates opened up. Clear sailing for him in a pair of Hawthorne races in the fall have been followed by three good works. He doesn't need the lead to win but won't be too far back either. 5-ELI'S PROMISE has a massive class edge over this field but that could be a deterrent as well as he takes this big class drop into today's spot. Have to expect he will be winging early from the gate but after a second place effort here last September for AOC $62,500 to be in for $12,500 just three races later leaves some concern. 4-THE LAST FACT is another Kirby that appears fit and ready heading into this spot. He ran well in his final two starts of the fall meet, posting a maiden score before running well against winners. I don't think he's fast enough to make the lead in here but the potential for a good stalking trip is very possible.

There's only a couple with pace potential in here and the key for 7-SUFFICE to have any chance of winning is that Hurry Up Chic Chic and Lorraine's Legacy both run. If only one of those two remain in this race they can easily steal it. If both do run, Suffice should be sitting on a big race as she makes her first start off a bit of a layoff. She has made all three starts on the grass but is working well toward the return. Look for her to settle back early and come running in the lane. 2-JOYZELLA could be a bit of a sleeper as she goes two turns for the first time. She is bred to run all day and put forth a pair of respectable races against stakes company last fall. Two works toward the return as she's another that is going to need that pace upfront to close into. 3-HURRY UP CHIC CHIC can be a major player in a couple of ways in here. She has the potential to shake loose early and try to possibly wire this field if she clears Lorraine's Legacy. If those two hook up early, it may set things up for the other Reed trainee Suffice to get the job done.

I like seeing 5-KRAMDEN make a return to Hawthorne after being claimed here last fall. He didn't seem to take to the surface at Mahoning Valley but that can be a deeper, more tiring strip. He won at this level over the track last December with a good stalking trip. The pace shouldn't be overly quick early but I also don't expect Kramden to be more than a couple of lengths off the early leaders. 1-MY GUITAR will be sitting a bit further back early as he comes in off a pair of decent races in New Orleans. He should save ground the entire way and may have enough late kick to contend nearing the wire. Curious as to what kind of trip we see out of 7-BEHAVIN MYSELF as it would appear his best races come when he is on the front end. He rated in his two most recent races and just wasn't able to contend late. If he can get away well in here and outkick Troy Ounce to the front, he has the potential to steal this race.

This is a really tough race to figure as there is no standout by any means. Have to hope 1-FIRST KITTEN can get away well from the inside as she possesses the potential to clear early and possibly wire this field. She has been solid in all of her main track starts at Hawthorne and comes in fit off three Mahoning Valley starts. Centeno is a fit for her as the distance today may suit her nicely. 2-ICY RIVER has some tactical speed as she has run well at this distance throughout her career. She was claimed for $15k out of her last race as she rallied late for the score. Expect her to settle a bit further back her early but she should come running late. Fitness is no issue either as she has worked consistently throughout the winter. 9-STORMY EMPIRE has had a lot of Hawthorne success, finding the board in 16 of 27 races over the track. She has tactical speed and crushed a state-bred allowance field in the mud last December. She has two works toward the return but I worry that the five furlongs won't give her enough time to get up.

I watched the race out of 1-GOLDEN HORNET a couple of weeks ago and felt that he made a good showing in that spot in Arkansas. That field was a strong bunch and while this is a talented group it isn't quite what he faced in that spot. He is very fast early and figures to beat Big Sport to the top but if those two duke it out early we may not see either of them in the lane. 3-KHOZAN'S VALENTINE has to hope for that pace battle upfront as he figures to sit back early and look to rally in the lane. He often races into trouble which is some concern as gate issues seem to be his biggest issue. The lack of a string of workouts coming into this spot leave some concern as well. 8-BIG SPORT was the king of the starter race all last year, hitting the board in every Hawthorne start last season. He has 10 wins over the track and is fast early but doesn't have nearly the speed of Golden Hornet. What is interesting is that he was supposedly headed to retirement following his victory on December 31 but an apparent change of heart finds him back at the races once again.

Well regarded on debut, 3-DOMINIQUE was sent away as the 2-1 choice despite drawing the 12 hole and facing open company. She took some time to load in that spot and got away a step slowly. After getting into the race, she made a steady advance through the lane to get up for fourth. She has three works toward her return, draws better in here and has every right to improve in her second start out. 8-WILDWOOD TRIPLE debuts with Lasix as she has worked well coming into this spot. Becker often does well at first asking with his young horses but make sure to keep an eye on this one in the paddock to make sure she behaves leading into the race. 6-CANTOO has posted solid efforts in four of her five career races, two of those coming against stakes company. She has some tactical speed as she figures to settle in the second flight early and come running in the lane.