Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 DEORA STORE had some tough luck with the WEATHER conditions in the N3 claiming conditioned races here last December. His efforts were competitive (B- OptixGRADE) and included the BLANKET finish from back on December 2^nd. #4 TAPIT SAM also has some buried form and coming back to Hawthorne for Reavis on the upswing portion of an “every other” pattern. 

As far as trip the pace should be Contentious (Fire) with honest (50 SpeedRate) pace given the complexion of this field - #3 PO BOY and #6 HINK’S PALADIN in Quad I around the ParLine and could be joined by #2 VALLEY VISTA depending on the rider tactics and his start, something that can be on the SLOG side at times. #5 SHACKLEFORD STRONG also has some tactical speed and coming in from Oaklawn Park will receive considerable class relief.

#1 MOM’S KINGDOM has had her share of setbacks getting to the racetrack and will return today for a belated second start. She debuted back on December 2^nd a day that was WEATHER impacted by high winds and kickback. Mom’s Kingdom was part of the early pace (X_FLOW) upgraded with the race shape and winner from off the pace. #3 JEMEZ FALLS also debuted in that event (12/2) and impacted by the WEATHER in her effort taking KICKBACK came back on December 31^st with an improved second start. 

#2 PRADA’S MIRACLE ran against open company all last year and will land her in her first start against statebred company. That class change is significant and should move her up in today’s race. The time off, 105-day layoff, is noted in this case not only with the drop but also the spotty published worktab. By contrast #5 PRETTY IN PRADO has a steady series of works throughout February for Boyce and will find a class change in her own right returning to statebred company, though a first start against IL-bred while also in for the claiming tag.

DiVito will ship back to Hawthorne with #5 ELI’S PROMISE and with a big drop in class. While a drop like this can come with concerns, in this case it appears they are placing this one where he fits as he has not progressed and has been racing above his head and overmatched in the races this year. He does project to take pace pressure with #6 K C’S FIRST B M W in this field, a runner that has legit early speed and can be tough on the lead. #4 THE LAST FACT also has some early speed though can rate and drawn inside that pair could sit just off them looking for first run. 

#2 TOM’S LAST GENERAL could be looked at as “turf horse” as he comes back today off the layoff to the main track, though he has some buried form on the dirt that fits on par for this race and could get the trip with the Contention noted above. In addition, he could offer value with the surface switch and possibly in comparison to #3 KEEP ATTACKING with a similar RunStyle.

#6 LORRAINE’S LEGACY appears “obvious” in this spot though as one that has been favored in each of her three starts that does not appear as anything new. She might just catch the right group today though has lacked any strong excuse to this point including a PERFECT trip (despite the WEATHER) on December 16^th. Number wise #7 SUFFICE could be the biggest threat and another looking for redemption as a beaten favorite. The surface switch is an unknown as she will shift to the main track for the first time, though it is worth noting that before she debuted back in November 2021 she was entered Main-Track-Only in October at Belmont.

In addition to Suffice, Reed will send out #3 HURRY UP CHIC CHIC one that does carry the benefit of recency in this second start off the layoff over the others coming off the bench. Statebred runners #2 JOYZILLA and #1 LIL CARRIE D land in this spot and while JOYZILLA had the edge of the two much of last year, LIL CARRIE D visually gave the impression of one that would appreciate added ground and once she had the route opportunity back in December she broke slow and unable to overcome the trip racing in the snow/WEATHER.

Looking at the OptixPLOT with the “Fire” Contention and more than half of the field positioned to the left of the y-axis there is a scenario for #3 IRISH MAJOR to close from off the pace. He is not the horse to look to as the “best horse in the race” though should be compensated in odds for the scenario he could get the trip. #5 KRAMDEN is more “logical” of the two with similar ability to get the trip and as an individual has run “faster” race and proven over this course/distance and with a win at this level back on December 2^nd. Perez will also run #6 WILLING TO SPEED here, another runner that has a win at this condition from back on May 5^th of last year and the barn scratch him from a similar conditioned race at 5f on March 5^th (opening day) to run in this spot instead. #7 BEHAVIN MYSELF can be kept on the radar with a favorable Plot position and form over today's course and distance. A race could be required returning from the break and trip is still key for this individual as well as the start with some gate issues in his past. 

This is a tricky event given the higher allowance class level with the runners in this field and combining pace and the layoffs. The nature of this race could see #5 YO PUEDO overlooked coming in off the layoff with numbers and class that fit on par and still holding upside as a lightly raced runner. 

Looking at the Plot, #1 FIRST KITTEN could present a pace advantage, though the “red” PlotFit must be respected as well as the “Fire” Contention she is a part of when assessing value come post time as she has come up short at this level in the past. #9 STORMY EMPIRE is also tough to overlook on the Plot though has the similar class challenges as a statebred runner and intent as she returns today off the 71-day layoff despite being capable at her best. #2 ICY RIVER is also going to be class tested though has some efforts and RunStyle that could also fit this shorter distance for top connections.

Vanden Berg returns with a pair in this race and Emigh picking up the call on #2 FIGHT ON as they come back off the layoff. Fight On will look to get back to top form and finds a similar spot to when they looked to come back in November from the 178-day layoff. The WEATHER conditions were less than ideal with snow and very cold temperatures and the trip as shown the Past 3 Runlines were of no assistance. As far as #5 FOLLOW THE SIGNS he will find a slight class rise from his recent races though does have some recency on his side and a scenario looking at the Plot where he could get the right trip stalking off a potential Contentious (Fire Quad I) pace. 

Rivelli ships in with #1 GOLDEN HORNET and wheeling right back in two weeks from the show finish on the Rebel Stakes undercard at Oaklawn Park. He has the class, figures and holding his form to fit with this field as a contender. With that said, he must hold his form back on short rest and there is a scenario where he is made to work on the front end with the other EP RunStyle horses and “Fire” Contention.

On the opposite end, #3 KHOZAN’S VALENTINE will be looking to run on late and close late as a Quad IV Square with the P RunStyle to look for a slight upset. The RunStyle and position is noted here for #2 MALPAIS as he also has been able to run from off the pace (Standard Quad IV Square) though that closing run has been more effective for him on the turf than on the main track and accounted for with the shift in position on Surface/Distance. 

#4 BE MY BESTIE is one of a group of four-year-old fillies in this field and could present the upside of that “older” group as she returns here in a belated second start. She made her debut last April and was favored that day for the connections. There was no real strong excuse in terms of trip though she did take some contact (TROUBLE_S) and perhaps that played a role and also must consider the layoff that followed. 

#3 DOMINIQUE was also favorite in her debut back in December and will return in this spot for a second start. Class wise is a lateral move despite running in against open company Special Weight that day as that race was restricted to juveniles and returns against older. The same test will be in play for the show finisher from that December 30^th race #9 TU ROYAL also returning here. 

#1 AIR GERRI will also make her return here to take on older, though presents some upside overall. She made her debut against open company and then showed run while GREEN and taking KICKBACK in the Debutante Stakes. #6 CANTOO has established form though overall lacked any strong progression last season and has that to still prove here in order to win. 

#2 FROSTED ÉCLAIR is also worth a mention as one of the other four-year-old runners in this group and one that showed some early speed in her first two starts. She also showed the tendency to break slow and forced to RUSH into that early position losing ground in both events and must show a better break and finishing (Circle) ability.

#2 LAMUTANAATTY projects to be a heavy favorite and running back to the 3/4 return they have form to compete in this race. With that said, they lack a strong edge over others coming with their top efforts and Lamutanaatty must hold their form on the quick turnaround coming off the long layoff, not an easy or given ask. 

#3 OTTOMAN EMPIRE was compromised by the ride (TACTIC-) on 2/17 as well as the class level. While on paper today's event is a lateral move, the change in race par makes today's event a softer overall race and can move up on that alone. #6 SALTA also can benefit from the class change and progressive form carrying some upside as a three-year-old in their third start off the layoff. 

#5 STAND PROUD is logical off their current form, figures and subtle trips this season placed back in at the maiden claiming level. 

#7 VIGANO has some upside and form that is buried as they return in this race. Figure wise they fit and should be sitting on a top effort in this second start off the layoff (PREP, STRETCH, DROP - OptixNOTES from 3/3) and with a similar second off pattern that saw them improve their number going back to March of last year. 

#8 LIL BRO COOP has come up short at this level with out excuse and even aided by race shapes at times with the TROUBLE- last out nothing of impact to final result. #1 MAGNIFICUS also holds back numbers to compete from last sprint including a BTL/B OptixGRADE effort on 4/30. They create their own issues as far as trip with the pattern of SLOG and must be considered. 

#1 FAST LANE should have no excuse today. They stand out number wise dropping to the lowest level of their career with the connections likely making that change to get a win. 

#5 THE STEELMAN will make a belated return and first start of this meet, which has been the intention by trainer Kenny Smith. This will be their first start back since November 26th, a day with poor WEATHER conditions at Remington Park requiring the races to be cancelled after the fourth race that day. 

#3 PIKACHU is one that is tough to project improvement at this point, but the pace scenario does project to be honest/contentious (Fire), a scenario to assist his late run.

The pace has a Contentious element (Fire) though does not appear to be necessarily overly fast. That is noted for #1 MARK THE MOOSE as they should have pace to close into and upgraded with that scenario, however value still must be assessed with this type of closer and given the morning line where some compensation is required though could drift up from the 5-2 ML assignment. Current form coming into this race is not as strong for #7 MORNING DRIVE though another closer in today race mentioned with the race shape. 

As far as the morning line favorite, #6 MY NOAH they are tough to knock in this spot as a fit all around and coming back off a less than ideal trip on 2/10 in the show finish. 

As far as the early pace, their former stablemate #3 GOLDEN LUNA should be joined by #8 MIRI A COINCIDENCE as well as the Deville pair of #4 THE FIVE B'S and #5 TALK TO TOKEY.

Based on current form #10 KRUSIN ROCKET makes sense as the assigned morning line favorite, it is tough to make a similar case for #4 RIDGEPOINT ROAD, one that has not shown as much in his races this season and lacks an edge (value) over the others in this field. 

#7 COLONEL BARTON has shown run in spots this season and will cut back to a sprint on the quick turnaround exiting the route event where they set a Very Fast early pace for the class and distance before losing ground. A similar "flow upgrade" can be #2 LOUD BOY exiting a Very Fast early pace route race back on 2/24. #3 WORK ALL DAY scratched from a higher $40k maiden claiming event on Friday to run here and remain sprinting where they could move up and return to the 1/21 effort and from the 2/04 DELAY race where Work All Day was also very fractious in the GATE. 

This is a competitive event and one that is tough to justify the morning line number on #8 SLIM MAN in this field. The same value concerns with #2 CONSPIRACY FACT coming back off the N2 win when upgraded that day as one of two (those two finishing in the exacta) class droppers in the field that stood out over the others in that 2/17 field. 

#1 RECKER POINT will race above condition here at the N3 level, though form wise fits with this group - value required. 

#5 NOTARY projects to show improvement coming back fresh from the 1/22 race where the SLOG and TRAFFIC TROUBLE compromised their run and still finished up with a strong CLOSE. 

#6 TEXAS RED HOT looked to require more ground when they made their return last month in a sprint and will have the added ground to work with today. Distance wise #9 JOLLY TOMMY could be put to his max here though has some form that fits on his best day though will require the right trip as well 

This is a competitive event and one that is tough to justify the morning line number on #8 SLIM MAN in this field. The same value concerns with #2 CONSPIRACY FACT coming back off the N2 win when upgraded that day as one of two (those two finishing in the exacta) class droppers in the field that stood out over the others in that 2/17 field. 

#7 RED RUN requires some value and could be shorter than the morning line suggests returning from the layoff for these connections and back stakes form. The value is required both giving up recency and the class drop coming back off the layoff as well. 

#1 RECKER POINT will race above condition here at the N3 level, though form wise fits with this group - value required. 

#5 NOTARY projects to show improvement coming back fresh from the 1/22 race where the SLOG and TRAFFIC TROUBLE compromised their run and still finished up with a strong CLOSE. 

#6 TEXAS RED HOT looked to require more ground when they made their return last month in a sprint and will have the added ground to work with today. Distance wise #9 JOLLY TOMMY could be put to his max here though has some form that fits on his best day though will require the right trip as well 

With both #3 JACKMAN and #6 DARK TIMBER showing their "best" form sitting on the top of their pp's, that could create some value in this race for others with similar form that is sitting under the surface. 

#9 AMERICAN PURE returns to the starter allowance condition for the first time since their dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) win back in November. #7 STAGE LEFT will ship in for Jacobson, a barn that has struggled here this season though this runner fits with this group and could be a positive sign running here for the purses with this horse also remaining protected. #1 ULTIMATE also could cycle back to a top effort. They ran their "top" back on 1/6 and showed regression in the two following starts and come back with a slight refresh and class relief. 

DeVaux had #3 SHOTGUN HOTTIE entered as "MTO" in the Al Stall Memorial Stakes and in an Optional Claiming event at the Fair Grounds with this race also in mind for the return. Placement appears reasonable today to spot her where she can compete and gain some confidence starting off the four-year-old season. 

#1 ICE ORCHID has the benefit of local form and consistent figures to compete in this allowance race and with today's group. Form for #2 LISETTE is tougher to get a read as she has spent a lot of her career placed over her head, though on her best day stacks right up with many in this field. 

The $60k maiden claiming condition is different and this suggests a middle ground for connections that do not necessarily want to run their horse for a tag for whatever reason though at the same time need to be realistic with the stock they have. That intention should upgrade the runners exiting the Special Weight races this season. 

#9 GOIN TO THE SHOW with the distance cutback and running as one of the few older horses in this group. #8 AMERICA TOUGH was not handled (TACTIC-) in the type of manner that they needed to compete first out and will ship in for live connections with improvement potential. #7 CROSSING is another that is tough to make a case when looking at the run lines and finishing positions alone, though can be upgraded from the 1/27 race against (X_FLOW) and with the positive distance change/SHORTER.

#10 SWAGGISH will also drop in for a tag though must improve overall and has lost ground late without excuse. #12 KUPP ran on of the stronger figures in this field back on 1/28 and a repeat of that race fits here. They have shown a pattern of gate issues (SLOG) that must be at the least noted and expected.