Handicapper Tips & Picks

As far as #7 AWESOME WILLY as the projected favorite, he fits logically in this race though might not hold as many advantages over others in this field to justify a price that could be shorter than actual odds. His ability to show early speed might be the most advantageous and required as a speed figure or class edge is less present. 

Number wise both #1 I'M YOUR VALENTINE and #8 GUS GUS stack right up with #7 AWESOME WILLY on on their best day have run higher figures on the main track/synth - the main track surface at Turfway Park. I'M YOUR VALENTINE returns to Hawthorne where his form from the end of the 2022 season was competitive at a slightly higher condition than today's $7.5k event. 

The class change to maiden claiming looked to benefit #5 GRAND FESTIVAL back on November 19th, though did not have a chance to show it taking a legit stumble (TROUBLE_S) creating an EX - EXCUSE and will return off the layoff for the first start back since that race. 

In terms of gate (SLOG) issues, that pattern for #3 ELECTRIC CHARGE in his two sprints is noted as well as the race shapes as he was in some way able to benefit from the race flow moving up late. Overall he is a lightly raced progressive type where another forward move can be projected though does give up the edge there to others coming back off the 75-day break and into a route debut. 

#2 UNCLE DICK does not hold a class edge over others as he returns here though did show some run and comes back to this circuit with buried form off the running lines and finishing positions as shown on the OptixNOTES/PLOT - those OptixEQ Past Performances FREE for the entire Hawthorne meet can be found here --- https://hawthorneracecourse.com/event/optixeq-plots/2023-03-16/

#6 MRS. NUSHI is a tough favorite to get excited about for this race though does fit at this level. She has the tendency to break slow (SLOG) and run from off the pace as a result, her edge on class and speed figures could see her closer to the pace on those advantages against the others in this field. 

#3 SEQUAYA has run some of the higher figures of any in this field though it takes going back in her form top find those races. She does also have some recent form that would make her competitive in this group and could present some upside here. She ran three races here last season with two of those at a route of ground and one where she was racing above condition (N3) back on December 4th. She showed speed wheeling back for the December 18th sprint, a race that had a Very Fast (VF O4S) race shape and has been off since. The argument her better days are behind her is valid, though the price compensation should be there to find out and the barn with Brian Cook, typically lower percentage win connections have started out with some success during the first week and similar for the returning apprentice rider, Giles after missing the 2022 season. 

#2 HEY MA is at her best when handled assertively and that has not been the case as of late from rider TACTIC- to race shapes and front running winners back on October 23rd and December 9th. #9 BELLS OF JOY requires a similar hand especially at this 5f distance with the outside post coming off the layoff. With that said, she has back numbers right in line with Mrs. Nushi and buried form (C+/B- OptixGRADE) that is more competitive than the recent run lines and finishing positions may suggest. 

The OptixPLOT for this race is signaling a Contentious pace (Sun) with a higher 86 SpeedRate - that is also shown visually with the majority of the field positioned above the ParLine. That scenario moves up the "lone closer" #4 ROCKET HOTSHOT as a Large Square (late kick) from Quad IV. There are plenty of reasons "against" this horse in this spot where cases can be made for others though the pace scenario with the expected morning line odds provide balance. https://hawthorneracecourse.com/event/optixeq-plots/2023-03-16/

Looking at the Plot with the Quad I Contention and SpeedRate along with the Extended Note on #4 GIANT CRITIC that states he finished "all out" just two weeks ago, he could be up against it (weaker favorite) at a shorter price in this race as projected. GIANT CRITIC with tactical speed could be asked to keep pace with #3 HE TAKES CHARGE, #5 MOMENT, #7 ASTI SKY and #9 TWO WORLDS, three of those runners as the secondary choices on the morning line. 

Trip wise #2 DIAMOND DAVE should be sitting in an ideal trip to "stalk and pounce" on that Quad I (first flight) of runners tracking as a Square (finishing ability) right off those runners. His form from last year fits on par and at this level with perhaps one of his biggest hurdles here coming back off the 118-day layoff to a top effort for this now eight-year-old gelding. #6 DYNABLUE could also sit a similar trip based on Plot position. His Plot shape and position is related to some trips and race dynamics on the main track closing out 2022 and does seem to prefer the TURF though on his "best" day is right in the mix with the others in this field when it comes down to assessing the board. #1 PISTOL BOX should have some pace to run at and a top effort coming off the layoff, though a late run from him can be expected with the race shape combined with a Large Square from Quad IV. 

#9 PACHI makes a lot of sense in this spot. His form, consistency from last year fit on par and that includes his seasonal return here off a 112-day layoff last April to finish second with an 81 OptixFIG. #11 IRISH TUFF has the layoff, shorter distance and post position against him, though factors that could see him dismissed by the public for this race. His form fits right in line with PACHI and perhaps even upgraded further running at slightly higher N4 claiming races closing out 2022. The draw and race shape could present a hurdle for #12 SHANGHAI POINT (and #13 W W TRAFALGAR) to at the least consider with odds come post time. 

When #3 WINGING WAYS ran at this level (October 2nd) last year he was the heavy 7-5 favorite and at a time where he was "weaker" in that role coming off a stronger effort (76 OptixFIG) just 9-days earlier. The race shape today (Quad I) combined with the massive shift in odds coming back for Quinonez keeps Winging Ways on the radar here. 

#6 JETTIN OUT has some buried, solid form here at Hawthorne that is upgraded beyond his results shown "on paper" with speed figures and races run at a higher class level than today. He will make his first start on this circuit since 2021 and coming back off the 104-day layoff there are some reservations that must be noted as he was a vet scratch both on 2/12 at LRL and again on 3/3 at PEN. #8 OVERBEARING also has a pair of scratches (Reason Unavailable) since his win back on February 9th at MVR where he was dominant over the competition and looks to face a tougher group and larger field here as well. 

#7 Z U SOON also has a "logical" look though going back to March 5th he was upgraded with a positive form cycle pattern and at odds; those odds he projects to be shorter today than on opening day - 11 days ago. 

#5 SONG OF AMERICA turned in a sneaky good effort at this level, course and distance back on October 14th. While that race has not been "key" in the sense of next out winners, the form of that race has held up and has been productive with improvement from those runners. SONG OF AMERICA can be upgraded further from that October event as PRESSED on a Very Fast (VF 04S) early pace, which assisted the race flow for the top three finishers. #3 COWGIRL FRANKIE recorded higher figures in the Special Weight races here last year, though makes her run from off the pace (Quad IV) and has that challenge in terms of trip with the short distance to factor with odds. 

As far as first time starters, they have the opportunity to jump up and compete in this spot as new faces. The inside runners, #1 MANDREL and #2 CREME DE CASSIS appear the most prepared and intended for this race along with the advantages from the inside posts and assertive riders on their side. #6 LUNARCHY should get attention off the connections, though in terms of preparation coming into this race with a gap in the works. #11 RIVER'S DREAMS also has some gaps in her works and gaps overall noting she makes her debut here as a five-year-old mare. 

#7 MEDAL OF FACT can run a big race off the bench as well as a competitive race at this level, surface and distance. He has enough early speed (E RunStyle) to run on the lead, though also could fall into a trip (OptixPLOT) tracking right off #5 FENESTRA and #9 LATIN CASINO. #8 TILTED TOWERS could also be in that first flight (Quad I Standard), though the surface today running on the main track, is still a surface he is unproven (Surface/Distance Triangle) over and his two dirt races were recorded speed figures below today's OFR and below his numbers on the turf/synth - something to note in terms of value. 

Watkins has sent out some well-intended and performing runners to start the meet and could hold similar intention for #3 ALPINE GHOST returning to Hawthorne in his second start off the layoff. His return race on February 17th at Turfway Park was a STRONG rated race for the level, with the show finisher, Tiz Our Turn coming back on March 3rd at Oaklawn to improve (OptixFIG) his number 11-points, from 79 to 90. That carries to #1 THAT KHENNY for Genaro Garcia also shipping in from that common race at Turfway last month and also back to Hawthorne and this circuit where they have prior local form on this circuit. 

The shorter distance could be a hurdle for #6 FIRST MASAMUNE though numbers and class fit on OFR shown in the Past 3 Runlines. That also carries to #4 STALLONE one that needs all the assistance available looking to return to the winners circle for the first time since March 2021. 

#1 MIDNIGHT ESCAPE is listed as the lukewarm morning line favorite for this race. He debuted here finishing second in a BLANKET finish at the wire and did not step forward as much while remaining consistent (pairing 83 OptixFIG) at Turfway Park. His maiden win was by open lengths on February 23rd though the WEATHER conditions should be noted especially in the case of the race track with tons of standing water -- and the speed figure/race result. 

#3 PUTTHEPASTBEHIND recorded some strong efforts (BTL on debut) and place finish in the Tremont as a juvenile and before the layoff return in January. He has yet to run back to those numbers from last year though could be on a progressive pattern and looking for the right group where those things could come together at the same time. 

#9 FORREST CITY ships in for Klopp and will land here in his second start against winners. He was tested on February 3rd coming off  a maiden claiming win and stepped up to N1X allowance company and racing for $72k purse. That Turfway allowance has held form including two next out winners. This race par is slightly softer though there does appear intent to take this spot where they can race protected once again and that change is noted following a Trainer Scratch from a $30k N2L race on 2/24 at Turfway.  

Number wise professional race horse, #11 COMISKY PARK fits with this group. He has a level of consistency that is tough to ignore though could be to a fault as he is still looking to clear this N1 allowance condition, a level he has been running at since May of 2022 with this being his 12th attempt at the win. 

#5 WEEKEND PASS is not without a chance in the finale. She gives up some recency off the 75-day layoff and still requires the right race shape (Quad IV Square) to set up her late run. As far as the race shape, there is a scenario she has pace to target with the "Sun" Contention and higher 67 SpeedRate. Her form is sneaky keying off a pair of races at this restricted $5k claiming level last year, which includes a B OptixGRADE and BTL effort on December 11th and TACTIC- compromised show finish with a B- OptixGRADE back on November 25th. 

#10 KITTEN ROCKS will return to a route/two-turn race for the first time in a long time and could be the right change here. She has the ability to drop back and made a run, a style she has shown at this distance in the past and while under the handling of Baird, the returning rider today. 

#6 PRANCIPANTS has not been given a break since the end of the 2022 Hawthorne meet. She ran a pair of competitive races here for Sanchez and one being a place finish (B- OptixGRADE/72 OptixFIG) at this level, surface and distance back on December 18th. #9 WATCHIN THE WHEELS finished a C+ OptixGRADE show finish though did have to deal with KICKBACK drawn at the rail that day and should avoid that here outside horses and to show similar tactical speed. 

#7 AUNT STELLA is still moderately unproven at the surface/distance with most of her career sprinting. She did race here at a route back on December 4th staying on well (X_FLOW) all things considered in the 4th place result. Her presence (Quad I Square) in this race could make things tougher on others (#2 COUGER and #3 FANCY EMPRESS included) and a contributing factor to that Contention/SpeedRate noted.  

7-AWESOME WILLY ran well in two of his four starts; not so much in the other two. But, his good races were against maiden claimers and he’s meeting even easier this time. 6-JACKPOT BOY is another dropping to the lowest level of his career. He hasn’t yet shown a thing but he had a strong drill the other day and his rider was on fire on Sunday. Chance at a big price. 1-I’M YOUR VALENTINE figures to be fit after racing all during the break at Turfway. He had a couple good races here in the fall. Has the look of a contender.

6-MRS NUSHI hasn’t shown much since breaking her maiden in July but she’s never been in such an easy field. She should be fit since she’s making her fourth start of the year. Can awaken. 8-ARNEIS wheels back quickly after graduating on opening day. None of her rivals have been in good form. Wouldn’t be too surprised if made it two in a row. 9-BELLS OF JOY is more one-paced than a real closer but this field does look weak and a plodder could easily pass most members of this field as they tire late.

With victories in two of his last three races and a narrow loss in the other, 7-JEALOUS EYES looms as the one to beat. He has run well both on and off the pace. Makes his local debut. It could be a winning one. 3-AHEADOFTHEGAME was in good form when the fall meet ended. This speedy runner just missed in two of his last three starts. Doesn’t hold a significant speed advantage over the other front runners but he has shown the ability to last under pressure. 2-RALLY SQUIRREL races on dirt for the first time. He’s also moving up in class. He has shown some versatility in his career. Might fit at a price.

4-GIANT CRITIC has been tearing up Ohio since getting claimed by this barn. He’s fresh off an allowance win after finishing second in his previous three starts. Meets a salty group in his local debut but should be up to the challenge. 5-MOMENT certainly figures. He’s had three previous Hawthorne starts and won them all. He won five of his last seven starter races and finished second in the other two. 3-HE TAKES CHARGE hasn’t been in the best form recently but those recent races took place at Turfway on their synthetic track. He was much hotter prior to shipping there from Indiana. Returns to a dirt racing surface. Could return to form. 

Not sure if this race is too short for 9-PACHI but the pace should set up perfectly. This five-time winner in 2022 ended his 2022 campaign with a victory. He’ll be stalking the pace early in this one and has a good chance of running by them all…if he doesn’t run out of real estate. 6-JETTIN OUT might be worth a look. He hasn’t had a lot of local success but he did win the last two times he ran in a “conditioned” race. 7-Z U SOON finished second while meeting slightly better in his first start of the meet. The class drop helps. Considering that his last two wins came on off tracks, rain would possibly help his chances.

Seemingly wide-open race. Going to try to score with first-timer 2-CRÈME DE CASSIS. Like the way she’s been working and like that her rider has been red hot this meet. 5-SONG OF AMERICA is blessed with early speed but cursed with a lack of stamina. She has led early in her last four starts but faded badly in all of them. However, the five-furlong distance could help her chances. Always have to consider Rivelli-trained first timers but 6-LUNARCHY is working slower than most starting for this barn. Hard to gauge. 5-COWGIRL FRANKIE sports the highest speed figures of those that have raced and is capable of making a huge late move but she could run out of real estate at this distance.

Seemingly wide-open race. Going to try to score with first-timer 2-CRÈME DE CASSIS. Like the way she’s been working and like that her rider has been red hot this meet. 5-SONG OF AMERICA is blessed with early speed but cursed with a lack of stamina. She has led early in her last four starts but faded badly in all of them. However, the five-furlong distance could help her chances. Always have to consider Rivelli-trained first timers but 6-LUNARCHY is working slower than most starting for this barn. Hard to gauge. 3-COWGIRL FRANKIE sports the highest speed figures of those that have raced and is capable of making a huge late move but she could run out of real estate at this distance.

5-FENESTRA makes his local debut. He’s been running mostly on turf and synthetic tracks lately but all four of his victories came on dirt tracks. He’s certainly not the only speed in here and he hasn’t been effective when he’s not on the lead but have to give him the benefit of the doubt. 8-TILTED TOWERS could challenge for the lead. Like top choice, he has been racing primarily on synth and turf. However, unlike top choice, his only dirt races were poor. Plus, he seems to have a habit of breaking a little slow and then rushing up to contest the lead; only to tire from the extra early effort. 3-ALPINE GHOST could be an interesting play. If you can ignore his last at Turfway, his first race on a synthetic track, and his move up in class, he could add a lot of value to your gimmicks. He’s likely to be racing close to the pace and might be able to come on late if the front runners tire from a speed duel.

Perennial tease 11-COMISKEY PARK might finally get it done. He’s always well played and was usually competitive but seemed to come up just short late. That could change today. He’ll be racing with blinkers for the first time. That might his apparent loss of focus late. Or…he could just tease us again. 2-SIVAKO improved in his first start after being gelded but improved DRAMATICALLY with first Lasix in his last start when he draw off to score his maiden win by daylight. He’s been training well all winter since that last race. Could be ready to pick up right where he left off. 1-MIDNIGHT ESCAPE showed little in a stakes race two starts back but he ran well in all his other starts including a 12-length maiden victory in Ohio in his last start. He finished second by a head here to start his career. Does well under pressure. Might put them all away.

Not in love with 11-SHE’S A BIG STAR but she’s dropping back to the right level. She won by nine the last time she faced similar and by 14 the previous time she took on this kind of rival. 2-COUGAR could be the best of the speed. She wired the field in her final start of 2022 and narrowly missed in her previous race. Wish she had more recent works, Manny, but have to figure she’s ready to run. 5-WEEKEND PASS was in too tough in her last start but she was racing competitively before that while meeting rivals like these. She had three drills during the break so expect her to come running late.

Kick off a really solid wagering card with a maiden route race. There's not a ton of pace in this spot as 7-AWESOME WILLY looks to have the potential to wire the field. He raced with decent results against better last year. With this drop, along with a nice pattern of workouts, he should be very tough to catch today. 8-GUS GUS is fit coming into here as he has shown the ability to rate closer early in recent races. He seems to continually get stuck with outside draws but with the lack of early speed in here aside from Awesome Willy, he should be able to clear toward the inside into the first turn. If anyone happens to go with Awesome Willy early, you may see 3-ELECTRIC CHARGE picking off some runners in the lane. He's another who has a consistent pattern of drills heading into this race as two turns shouldn't be an issue for him. Let's see if he can sneak into the gimmicks at a price.

This is a really tough race to try to defeat the favorite as there is little along the lines of consistency in here. Have to take one path or another as I would likely just single on 6-MRS. NUSHI in this spot. She has always faced tougher company and comes in fit off of starts at Oaklawn Park. There isn't a ton of early speed as she figures to rate close to the pace early and look to take over into the lane. 7-NOT TO BE DENIED didn't show a ton in her final two starts of the meet. If you get to her races three and four starts back she figures prominently in here. With a recent bullet drill on March 7 and picking up Santiago in the saddle both flatter her chances to run a big race at a price. 9-BELLS OF JOY has just the one lifetime victory but has also found the board in nine of 15 starts over the track. With a pair of works toward the return and the ability to show some early speed in here, she may be able to rate close and hang around for a share late.

A solid, competitive bunch to go two turns where there's the potential for a few to show early speed in here. I'm hopeful 3-AHEADOFTHEGAME gets away in good order but doesn't push things along early as he has shown the ability to rate and run on in the lane. His record over the track is solid and with three works coming into here he should be fit to handle the distance. 2-RALLY SQUIRREL was claimed for $15k two starts back and showed speed in his last before giving way into the lane. His best races may be ahead of him on grass but if you dig into the past performances, you will find a dirt start at Gulfstream last February that would put him in the mix with these. 7-JEALOUS EYES has the figures that would make him a standout in here. My only concern is that there is some other speed to possibly challenge early and he may have to go a bit for position into the first turn. He did run a strong race in his maiden score here to close out the season last year as he figures to take a good amount of action today.

Curious to see how many head for the lead in here as there's potential for any of four to possibly look to make the top. If even two of those four go, things should set up nicely for 4-GIANT CRITIC to settle in the second flight early and get first run at the top of the lane. He has been racing well leading into the spot and hasn't finished worse than second in four starts on the year. Reyes comes in to ride for Sullivan as if there's a little moisture in the track it will only improve this one's chances. 2-DIAMOND DAVE has posted some solid races as the main question will be how he handles this step up in class. He has found the board in half of his 20 Hawthorne starts and comes into here with a pair of works. Curious to see where Baird positions this one early. 6-DYNABLUE is another that will need pace to chase. His final start of the fall meet was respectable as he had some late run in that start. With three works toward the return let's see if he's ready to rally at a price.

This should be a tremendous wagering race with no likely heavy favorite in here. There appears to be a few horses committed to the front which will hopefully set things up for the closing kick of 9-PACHI in here. The final two starts of the fall meet were strong and he enters here with a pair of works toward the return. This is his first start at the distance but with warmer temps expected for this time of year, the track should continue to play evenly. The outside draw will make it tough for 12-SHANGHAI POINT to win but it will also help his price in here. He's been good over this track and comes in off a couple of races against tougher at Oaklawn. A wet track would only flatter his chances in this spot. 8-OVERBEARING is another Sullivan runner in with a big chance. He shouldn't be too far off the early pace and has run well in both of his starts on the year. He's another that only seems to improve if he catches a surface with some moisture in it. 

There's a pair entered in here from the barn of Tanner Tracy but I gave the nod to 2-CREME DE CASSIS based off the most recent drill. She has been working in company with the other Tracy trained Iowa-bred 9-Hop Away Hottie as the first three works had the pair together every stride. In the most recent drill on March 9, Creme De Cassis pulled away easily and looked to finish the stronger of the duo. With the inside draw, first Lasix and bug rider in the saddle, let's see if she shows speed and contends throughout. 5-SONG OF AMERICA is the other likely to show speed in this spot. From her start at Hawthorne last fall to the three Tampa races, speed has been prominent in each start. The shorter distance may benefit here as well as the potential to catch an early breather if she isn't challenged out of the gate. 3-COWGIRL FRANKIE is the opposite of Song of America as you won't see much of her early but she should come running in the lane. She's had numerous opportunities for that first lifetime score while hitting the board in five of nine starts. The distance may work against her a bit in here but she could come running late to get into the gimmicks.

What an incredibly tough race! The top three contenders all look to have similar styles as each should be a part of the early pace. With that said, all three could have the potential to run on late as well. I'm thinking the outside pair will look to try to clear for position into the turn and ensure and honest pace upfront. If that's the case, 5-FENESTRA could get a perfect trip from just off the early lead. He has been competitive on the tough Southern California circuit in the past before heading over to Turfway at the end of last year. Claimed from that start, he stepped up for his last couple and ran solid races in each. Let's see where he finds himself early in here. 8-TILTED TOWERS was claimed out of the same race as Fenestra at Turfway last December. He was a beaten favorite in there as he had a poor start and never really seemed comfortable. He was solid in his race two back before being rushed and stopping in his most recent start. Let's see if he tries to wing it for early position in here. 9-LATIN CASINO is another that appears to be committed to the front. He wired a field here last October and held his own against a solid Starter group to close out the meet. Four works leading into here should have him ready as the only question is if he has company upfront early on.

Such a tough race to close out the card with a full field to head two turns. The first question for some will be fitness and the second will be pace complexion. I'm giving the nod to 9-WATCHIN THE WHEELS in here as she returns with three works and should get a good trip from just behind the early pace. Santiago returns in the saddle as he has been the best fit for this runner. There isn't a ton of early pace in here so look for her to cross over early for a good position and get the jump on the closers in the lane. 12-LINDALOUIMAGE takes the blinkers back off after wearing them in her final start of the fall meet. A return to her race three starts back should be enough to put her in contention early as her three works coming into her could also have her fit. The outside draw may be what produces the price in the end. 2-COUGAR is one that figures to show early speed as if any of these can wire the field, she is the likely one to do so. She really had no excuse in her start two back as she set a slow pace before giving way in the lane, but her final start of the meet was strong as she responded when asked in the stretch. Let's see if she is able to clear here early and if she has any company upfront.

T 2 Angelwithattitude 4 Mvn 6 Alcina

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P 8 E R Rhonda 2 Shes Got The Luck 6 Patricia Mae

P 10 Write The Rules 9 Maple 8 Wildcat Hera

P 4 Chocolate Crackers 1 Four For Orr 7 Thankyaverymuch

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P 9 Malvolio 1 Thedoginthefight 7 Cutting Class

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