Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 NIFF was weaker as the favorite coming back from the 272-day layoff on March 9th. As they wheel right back for this race, they could present a higher value here in addition to that fitness/recency and even a potential pace advantage (Quad I Square) in today's race shape. #3 MY LADY SLEW also takes up a Quad I Square spot in this race, though will return from the three month break taking the step up in class to the N3 level. 

Both #4 MAYSTART (vet scr 3/12) and #6 FIELD DAISEY (vet scr 3/9) make sense in this race though in addition to the recent vet scratches also give up recency coming back from the layoffs for this race. 

The connections for #5 LUCKY SHOT will take a more reasonable approach returning in 2023 to run in this N3 claiming event rather than run in the OC$40k event back on 3/12. Their class edge and ability to stalk-and-pounce (Quad II) Square should allow for a trip stalking the Quad I (Fire Contention) runners. 

#6 TEE BURNS returns to Hawthorne with buried form. They ran a competitive race (B- OptixGRADE) under similar conditions back on 12/10 after a compromised break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) hopped at the start and made an inside move. The four horse field on 1/26 at the Fair Grounds forced them into the lead and a run style for that higher level event that did not flatter their chances for the win on the day. 

#3 GO STORMIN GIRL had some early TROUBLE in the March 5th return race and can project a move forward off that effort and back at this $8.5k level where they raced competitive last season. #2 PALACE MAGIC will be required to step up to the class level, though another that should be sitting on a move forward in this second start of the meet. 

Both runners will require a top effort with #5 CATCHUSIFYOUCAN looking to run to her namesake and capable of doing just that with the edge of the Quad I runners as a Large Square (finishing ability) and positional/second call speed above the ParLine. 

#6 SWISS GUARD is the most experienced runner in this field and while there are the knocks that comes with that and still looking to clear the maiden condition, this will be their first start for the tag on this circuit. They did race over this course back on December 9th at the Special Weight level, coming up short as the favorite though with some excuse stumbling (TROUBLE_S) losing their footing in the mud coming out of the gate. Stablemate #1 BLAME SHIFTER will make a belated debut in this spot. Vanden Berg picked him up in June after working to the best of his abilities at the time in 21 flat on his left lead. There have been gaps in the works since coming back this year and shows up against older.

#5 SHERLOCK WHO is technically a first time starter though treated similarly as they debuted back in 2021 without things going as planned including the layoff that followed. While these runners come with caution, often this time returning from the extended layoff and as a older horse they can often require being race ready off the bench. Tanner has them training consistently coming into this race while also picking up a live rider in Centeno for this race. 

As the projected favorite, #3 WILDWOOD'S WARRIOR will have to work and be "much the best" to win with today's race shape (Sun Contention/38 SpeedRate) as shown on OptixPLOT. 

#4 FUTURE VISION looking to benefit from that pace scenario and trip stalking as a Quad II Square along with #5 KEEN RESPONSE one that has the more "obvious" look "on paper" of the two. Those two hold finishing ability and the tactical edge on Quad IV runners, #6 WHERE'S LUCKY and #8 RIP IT RYAN, closers that should be running on late from off the pace. 

#7 BIG BLUE is interesting (value) here as well. He has a shift from Standard (includes turf form) to Surface/Distance with both giving him the option to compete here. 

#2 AGAVE KID could certainly win here, though does not hold as much of an edge as it may appear and does project to take pace pressure from the expected second choice, #3 D'FEVER setting the pace. 

That opens up the race to alternatives and prices. Many will return from the March 5th common race and lead by #7 RISKY BOY of that group and is logical. Longshot, #8 GEMO RAIN had a look heading into the 3/5 race as he was making his second start off the layoff for Martinez. A rider change will be made here following the TACTIC- two weeks ago and that alone would be a positive along with the back/hidden numbers that fit on par. 

Sophomore #3 RIGHT ON RICHIE perhaps has the most upside of this group and form as he returns to Hawthorne. He comes back to this circuit off races at Gulfstream Park against open though will shift to take on older for the first time here. 

#7 SENOR MIKE has the form against older as he returns to make his four-year-old debut. He showed run in each start last season building off a GREEN debut run and Pompell brings him right back to allowance company here with a steady series of works for this race. 

#8 HIGH BROW expects to get attention in this race for the connections and form that appears on the "safer" side compared to others in this field. That could be enough to carry, though as the expected shorter priced favorite in this race it must be noted the races he was running in last season are softer class level than this allowance race and must step with the class change. The class change also in play for #7 PAPA'S LUCKY SEVEN one that also has to work a trip with his off-the-pace run style - and listed as the second choice on the morning line.

Distance wise is the unknown for #6 BEARS WATCHING though outside of that, fits at this level. His class and figures stack up on par and also holds form coming into this race out of Turfway Park. That includes a STRONG rated race back on 2/10 that has already produced two next out winners and improving next out numbers. 

#4 EDITOR IN CHIEF had route foundation and while he will give up recency with this first start back in 293 days, he has a class edge running at and against much tougher throughout his career than what he faces with this race par. 

Longtime maiden #7 AMARI S. could appear to have a pace advantage here from OptixPLOT though it is worth keeping in the context of this race and with the lightly raced runners that have yet to show potential where AMARI S. has without question shown who she is at this point. 

#1 MADLY will race for the claiming tag today returning from the layoff. She was entered in a Special Weight event last December for Tanner. The placement here could give her the best chance to compete as she comes back this year in this spot with some local works and live rider in Centeno. #8 MAZLAN will also return here with class relief while taking on open company, the class par is softer returning in this race. That could be the change she requires to move up naturally in this spot. 

Second time starters #3 LADA KALINA and #4 TWICK OR TWEAT will return from a similar rated event on opening day. LADA KALINA showed run after a slow start, though no match for the chalk winner, Arneis. The run was interesting for TWICK OR TWEAT as she looked to be eased up soon after the SLOG start, though stayed on enough to continue galloping along behind the others. Gate issues have also become a habit for #5 BUMPER GIRL as she has literally (TROUBLE_S) been living up to her name.