Handicapper Tips & Picks

Tough to ignore much from Vanden Berg at this early stage of the meet with the barn on a HOT streak to start the 2023 season and showing up here with the logical #6 LIGHTNING CASHES. This will be their second start of the meet though coming out of the higher level Special Weight event just two weeks ago to run back in for a tag. Their maiden claiming effort (B OptixGRADE/71 OptixFIG) from back on 12/17 stacks right up on par. 

In terms of pace, the early pace should be contentious, a scenario that benefits and upgrades #3 GUST OF WIND as the "lone closer" shown as a Large Square in Quad IV. 

Looking at the Pace/OptixPLOT for this race the "Fire" Contention and higher 34 SpeedRate should see pressure on the pacesetters and a potential vulnerability to morning line favorite, #2 IRONMAN RICHIE as a Quad I Circle. They should have the edge over #4 SUNDAY MISCHIEF (Large Circle, lack of finishing ability in relation to the others) though lack the finishing (Square) ability of rival, #5 KANITHAPPEN upgraded of that set. The pace scenario should all pace for closers #1 CAPTAIN CARNEGIE and #6 TEA AFTER BALLET, though their riders must still work to stay engaged to some extent with that first flight to avoid too much to do late with the 5.5f distance. That could be a challenge for #3 K T'S JILTED GROOM sitting deeper in Quad IV of that set. 

Cook has been another barn to follow early in the meet with early success and will be represented here by #3 FIRST SQUADRON coming back for her second start of the meet. While the 3/9 effort stacks up on par, she will be required to pair up efforts and could find pace pressure (Quad I) today as shown on OptixPLOT where another top effort will be required. 

#2 PRANCIPANTS (Surface/Distance) could be looking for first run with form at this level from last season with numbers on par. The trip for #6 PRINCESS CONSUELA should be right there as well and one that sits closest to the eligibility cutoff (10/23/22) with her win here last season on 10/16. 

#4 WANNA HAVE FUN is also given a mention with the expected value, Contention, back numbers and recency with the second start off the layoff. Number wise she is on the softer side, though part of that is due to her running style and tendency to break slow - factors she again must overcome to compete especially for that top spot. 

This is a tricky event starting with the runners with experience and that group of four stepping up in class for this race and lacking any strong edge over each other. #1 KEEP LEFT could end up shorter than the morning line suggests coming in from the Fair Grounds with some of the higher figures and potential pace (Quad I Square) advantage. #3 JEMEZ FALLS another "Square" that does hold a progressive pattern though tends to run from off the pace and steps back up to open company today. It is worth noting the WEATHER conditions on 3/12 with the race run in the rain/snow. With the condition of those with race experience, that opens up the race to the new faces with #5 SISTER SWEDE racing for Tanner, another live barn that could have another live one here. 

Rivelli will sent out a pair with #4 OPALINE and #6 GETTIN DOWN and the barn overall more than capable with debuting runners, has these two coming in with some gaps in works and delays to making their debut. 

#2 VALIANTLY DISCREET is positioned as the horse to beat and the one to catch (Quad I Square) in this event. 

Looking to stalk-and-pounce, #5 BEEASY returns from the 3/5 race and looking for a better start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and ride (TACTIC-) from Baird to move up in this race. In terms of value, #6 TOM'S LAST GENERAL fits in that role in a similar Plot position/shape to BEEASY and was given a look when entered under similar conditions to today's race on 3/12, though unable to compete that afternoon as a vet scratch. 

Tough to get too creative in this race with the logical runners a fit in this race. #7 STOPSHOPPINGAMY given a slight class edge returning to the statebred level and turning in a competitive race under similar conditions here last June. Trainer Armando Hernandez has started off well with a limited sample of runners and that along with the distance, the timing of this race could present the advantage over #6 RACETOTHE FINISH looking to separate the two. Becker will also return with #3 GHAALEB'S DOMAIN off the layoff, one that projects to show early speed though also must require improvement returning from the layoff at this level. 

#5 BANDIT SWANSON returns to Hawthorne with some class relief exiting the recent stakes race at Turfway Park and higher level race par events out in Kentucky. Prior to those races, they gave a solid effort here at Hawthorne on November 13th, a restricted Optional Claiming level event similar to today's conditions. 

#2 BUCK MOON looks to have some intent from Rivelli picking this spot returning from the layoff noting they were entered on 3/16 in another Optional Claiming $40k event and landing here by choice - trainer scratch. 

Class is the best test and could prove to be a legit hurdle for #8 ANDREW THE GIANT, though still one give a mention here with some buried form from last season and form that going back to prior Hawthorne seasons and races over this main track around two-turns. Class is also noted for #9 SILVER QUARTERS returning from the layoff for this race and back in against open company - a potential "prep" sign. 

Class and numbers fit for #3 W W CRAZY on his best day though has some hurdles to consider returning from the layoff and back at the route distance. He has been able to compete and win at the route/two-turn distance though a lot of that was based on the level of his competition in those races. 

At the projected morning line, #1 STAN THE CAMERAMAN moves up in this race and according to the Plot (Standard/current form) as a Quad I Square. They ship in for this race with some recency and back in for the claiming tag and out of the 3/3 race at Fonner, stalked by the 1-2 chalk winner to finish in blanket for minors. 

#7 PERFUMER wheels right back for this race and off a BTL show finish under similar conditions (shorter distance) just two weeks ago. #8 CHIEF MYSTIQUE also returns from that race and could get overlooked here off the 5th place result and not the B- OptixGRADE (and Plot position/shape) that keeps them right back in contention here.

Class wise this will be the easiest spot for #9 CAJUN PUZZLER since he began his career and looking to use that edge against today's group. His early speed could make things tougher on some of the local runners that have shown speed and lacked finish over this course and under similar maiden conditions here at Hawthorne. 

#4 KING ZION could show an upgraded Plot position based on his overall experience and that in relation to the others lightly raced in this race. 

#6 MIDNIGHT MAJESTY fits right back at this level and turning back to a sprint for Diodoro. They are preferred off the visuals to #7 VOBISCUM those two returning from the 2/17 common race. 

#8 LUCKY DUDE carries some upside with the class relief to run at this level exiting higher race par/purse/claiming N2L conditioned races this season. 

While the early pace projects to be Contentious, #2 BLOW TORCH could hold a slight edge while slightly under the radar with their tactical speed cutting back to a sprint. 

#2 PIZZA CHARLIE will find class relief to run in this spot with the drop in maiden claiming tag, as well as facing many AR-bred runners in this field.

The other non-statebred runners: #3 STRICKLAND is also upgraded in this case and with some subtle form and buried trips with the BTL effort on 2/19 and B- OptixGRADE effort on 3/3. #4 OUT OF ALCATRAZ comes into this race softer on numbers than the other two, though still carries upside in his own right with the EX - EXCUSE from the TROUBLE on 2/19 and followed up with the poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and in both cases not asked/NO_PUSH for run following the early adversity.

#7 SUNSIGN returns here off a solid B OptixGRADE/71 OptixFIG run on 2/26 though will be tested for stamina once again as well as the ability to pair up top efforts. 

#2 COLONEL BOWMAN bucked the "cold" streak for Jacobson with his win on 2/20 though will be tested right back in this spot and with a potentially more contentious pace. Part of that pace could include #4 LT. JUNIOR GRADE, one that has form on his best day and even enough early foot to position himself as the controlling speed if allowed.

That pace could assist #3 PIONEERING PAPA coming back to the starter allowance level on short rest, the 13-day turnaround looking to pair up wins. 

#5 FREUDIAN FATE is a little light number wise though does have form coming into this race and progress into this third start of the cycle. 

#7 KENTUCKY BOURBON has a bad habit (SLOG) that does not project to be "fixed" here though the significant class drop and edge of the field should assist to compensate. 

#2 KING DOODLE with a bit more tactical speed could hold the edge over #3 ORDER OF MERIT as the other "logical" types. 

#6 THINKINGNDRINKING is lighter on numbers and requires a step up to get on the level of those rivals. He has some upside with buried form this year, the BTL effort on 2/10 and cutting back to a sprint exiting the off tracks as still a lightly raced type. #4 MATTFOLEYVANMAN also coming off the "sloppy" track race just two weeks ago, earning a new top figure that day will be tested to repeat and do so against a higher race par. 

The class drop off the win for #9 MAHOMEY carries some concerns overall running back in this spot for the tag. #6 HAMAZING WISDOM will also make that same move though the move looks to be the right one for this horse as he has been overmatched in at allowance company and seeking the right level. 

Asmussen will send out the entry with #1 HOLDING PATTERN first off the claim and #1A J. E.'S HANDMEDOWN, one that could project a move forward off a subtle trip on 3/2 and returning today with a key rider change to Santana. 

#10 HERITAGE PARK takes up the outside though has enough tactical speed in today's race shape to establish position on or near the lead as necessary. 

#8 ARMAN lands in this race and a more favorable spot than the 3/17 8.5f allowance against older he was scratched from to run here instead. ARMAN showed a lot of ability winning on debut though has not had much in his favor since and that includes the layoff pattern. This will be his second start off the layoff and in the right spot for him to show who he is. 

#1 EASY ACTION might be worth another look at the route distance given the trip on 2/18 though today is not that day with the connections looking to regain some confidence off that effort here back at a sprint. In addition to distance, timing might not have been ideal in that first start against winners when peaking with the top figure on 1/28 and wheeling back in three weeks off that effort noting the 33-days since here. 

#3 AMERICAN OUTLAW will also return with a distance change though in his case the one turn might be what he is looking for all along. The time to regroup and reset for this spot could also be on his side. 

Many of this field will exit a common race back on 3/2 with #5 MOUNT CRAIG likely going to be the preferred of that group here. His trip was not ideal though can create some of his own trouble with the pattern of breaking slow and his overall run style. The fifth place run from #3 ATLANTIC DANCER was right in line with MOUNT CRAIG given he had to make his move against the dynamic and despite the change in finishing position. 

#6 BOLZY has the challenge that day giving up experience overall and around two turns, though now has that on his side coming back for this race from the WIDE trip and to his credit improved and still lightly raced could hold another move forward. 

Pacesetter #8 LIFE ON THE NILE has lacked finish without excuse and a concern once again. That could assist a trip for #4 GOIN TO THE SHOW one that might look to trade placed with LIFE ON THE NILE stalking that runner and falling into a "first run" type trip.

#10 ONTHESTAGE is a "new" face against that group and overall as this will be just his third lifetime start. Improvement is once again required though to his credit did make progress coming off a slight freshening for the second start on 2/25. 

Taking on winners for the first time is a test and takes some class to make that jump; #5 TIVY will look to do just that on the 19-day turnaround though could find himself in the right time and place with his current form and complexion of this field where he fits right in. 

#1 WILD MULE cuts back to a sprint, a positive change from the route experiment last month. A different experiment will be in play here as the blinkers go on for the first time. WILD MULE has yet to take that big step forward from his juvenile season and that is his to prove here. #8 TOO MUCH INFO ran against WILD MULE in the Advent Stakes back in December and has not been seen since. Those layoff lines are the main concern as clearly there is some issue keeping this one from the track and in a race. 

#7 LIL SWEET THANG could sneak under the radar making his second start of the meet and off some form racing out of town. His effort in the 2/18 allowance showed more run with the potential IMPROVE especially with some changes for this spot. While he has spent half of his career thus far around two-turns, the ONE_TURN could be his preferred.  

This race starts with the discussion of the runners here returning from the 2/26 common race, a race that was run in poor WEATHER conditions in the rain and FOG tough to see. The winner MAHOMEY (Race 5) is running earlier on the card and for this event, the place finisher #10 LOCHMOOR projects to find attention of the group returning here. While he is tough to knock off the effort, he is a closing type (Quad IV Square) as something to factor with that projected shorter number and could see others step up from that race given the conditions and outcome. 

#7 TOPF ROAD RULES being one of those as intent seemed in play on 2/26 making their second start off the layoff and cut back to a sprint. Intent aside, trip was compromised with the outside draw poor start/TROUBLE_S and WIDE trip that followed. 

#1 DATA STORM did not run in that 2/26 race, though did try to run that day however unable to draw in off the AE. That is noted with the layoff since 1/22 and also could be overlooked. A top effort is required for this level though has races on their best day and a run style that could work out a run in this field. 

#12 BETTYS CASH wheels right back in just 12-days for this race and could be a positive sign that the connections were expecting a little more overall and no worse for the wear coming back for this race. 

6-LIGHTNING CASHES gets the nod with the drop back into maiden claimers. He finished third versus better maidens in his meet debut but he missed by only a nose in his career debut, the only time he met claiming rivals. 1-RUSSIAN ALPHABET finished up the track in all previous starts but this will be the first time he drops into maiden claimers. His apprentice rider is vying for top jock honors and his barn has been sending out live runners this meet and this will be their first race with him. 2-WICKED SURPRISE narrowly missed in his first start after getting claimed by this barn. He’s moving up in claiming price for this test but this field didn’t come up too tough.

4-SUNDAY MISCHIEF ran well chasing a tough odds-on winner in his local debut. Like most in here, he does tend to tire late but that last race was one of the best of his career. Can improve further after getting a trip over the track. 2-IRONMAN RICHIE is likely gunning for the lead. He has grabbed the early lead in the majority of his races. His recent races at Fair Grounds haven’t been bad. His lone win came on the lawn but he might be ready to carry his speed all the way in his Hawthorne return. 5-KANITHAPPEN adds to the pace. Don’t like the fact that he’s apparently had only one extremely slow and short drill coming into this race (listen for announcements on additional drills) but reasonably sure this barn wouldn’t start a horse that wasn’t ready. 

3-FIRST SQUADRON tends to be a teaser but she ran so well in her first start of the meet that she has to be considered to be the one to beat. She finished second in that race despite dueling for the lead from the start and it was a runner coming from far back that took advantage of the pace and flew by late. Not sure where to go after top pick but maybe 2-PRANCIPANTS. She has been in relatively decent form going long in Ohio but she came from well off the pace to finish second the last time they turned her back in distance. 1-ARCH FLYER had one terrible drill to start her year but came right back with a bullet move at five furlongs. Her connections have been doing well. Certainly figures.

Speed, the rail, the hot rider and the cutback in distance could all add up to a victory for 1-KEEP LEFT. On the other hand, she hasn’t been all that effective from inside posts. But, she’s coming off a strong second-place finish in Louisiana. Might hold a small edge. 6-GETTING DOWN and 4-OPALINE are pair of first-time starters from the powerful Rivelli barn. The works from either haven’t impressed but always have to give anything from this barn a chance. 7-MISS MIA drops back into maiden claimers. She finished seventh, though beaten by only three, in his first start of the meet. But she finished second in her only previous start versus claimers.

1-FOLLOW THE SIGNS takes a surprising class drop after finishing second for $13,500 in his first start of the meet but that is just likely to make him even tougher. He is basically back where he belongs and his versatility could make him hard to beat no matter what pace develops. 2-TIME HEIST ran well in all his local starts, including his last three after getting claimed. He finished in the money in all five Hawthorne races. Makes his first start of the year but had a couple good drills. Guessing he’s ready. 3-CRANKSHAFT is probably the best of the speed. He hasn’t raced since September and he’s had only limited drills but he's still the one they have to catch. 

2-VALIANTLY DISCREET ran well but tired late in his first start of the meet. He was favored in that race and will probably be again, especially since he’s dropping to half his former claiming price. Like top pick, 5-BEEASY drops. He finished well behind top pick in his first start of the meet but he should seemingly have a better chance at this level, especially against the rest of the field. 3-PRAIRIE WOLF might be only prepping for his return to Iowa but he’s had a string of strong drills coming into his first race since September. His connections are off to a hot start. Could challenge for the lead.

Nice race. 6-RACETOTHEFINISH could find the perfect pace ahead of her. This stalking mare makes her first start since September but she’s been training well during the break. With three or more rivals likely to try for the lead, she’ll be tracking the pace waiting for the rest to run out of gas. The weatherman suggests that we’ll have rain early in the day but it, hopefully, clears up and we get a fast track at race time. But if that doesn’t happen, 1-ISABELLACANATELLA could be tough. She has always been quick and wet tracks bring out the best of her. She won the last four times she took on Illinois breds in races other than stakes. She’s making her first start of the year off limited drills but she’s always been good off layoffs. 7-STOPSHOPPINGAMY is another likely to wait until late to make her best move. She’s another with poor drills but she did win the last time she came off a layoff.

Going to give 2-BUCK MOON the benefit of the doubt even though he was eased in his last start in June at Churchill. He was plenty quick, and he has generated some lofty speed figures in the past, though you wouldn’t know it off his recent works. Hopefully he’s ready for his comeback. 5-BANDIT SWANSON could have dead aim late. He’s not a big closer but will be stalking the pace waiting for his chance. Ignore his last, a Kentucky stakes race when he couldn’t utilize Lasix. He’ll be far more competitive today. 1-DREAM KEEPER could vie for the lead. He has decent drills coming into this race. Looking at his pps, it’s easy to determine that the majority of his recent races come off layoffs but have to figure he’ll be prepared.

9-CAJUN PUZZLER might be able to last with the drop to this level. He’s been tiring in his Gulfstream races but he might never look back against this much easier company. 4-KING ZION turns back in his first start of the year. He was narrowly beaten in his final start of 2022 but that was a route and he’s been better going long, though he’s had 31 starts without breaking his maiden. 5-SUPER CITRO is a well-bred first timer from a hot barn with good drills. However, the fact that he’s making his first start at this level speaks volumes.

Despite the short field there appears to be a decent amount of early pace in this race. Hoping 5-KANITHAPPEN rates close but doesn't challenge early. Sitting a length or two off the leaders may be the perfect spot. He has just the one career victory but that came over this track and if the rain does come, it only flatters his chances as his win was a 10 length score in the slop. Not fond of just one work toward the return but maybe that helps his price. 4-SUNDAY MISCHIEF ran a game race in his first start of the meet, running second to a solid winner in Triple Chrome. That was a nice turnaround off some starts where he struggled in Maryland but he runs for a barns that spots them well. Look for him to be on the lead and try to wire this field. 2-IRONMAN RICHIE is fit coming into here off a string of races in New Orleans. He has been better while sprinting and is another that gets back to the location of his only career victory. He is likely to be pushing things along upfront early.

Was trying to find a way to defeat the favorite but sometimes you have to settle for chalk and this is a spot where that's the case. May be worth singling 3-FIRST SQUADRON in multi-race wagers as she looks be to very tough in here. She has a solid record over the track and ran a good race in her first start of the meet. She pressed the pace while wide in that spot and ran on in the lane. In here she appears to be able to shake loose early and may not face much along the lines of pace pressure. This is her best distance and Giles returns in the saddle. 1-ARCH FLYER has found the board in half of her 12 Hawthorne starts. She makes her 2023 debut off a couple of morning drills, her most recent a snappy 5 furlong work. I expect she chases early and may be left to chase the entire way. 2-PRANCIPANTS has no issues with fitness coming into here as she raced through the winter at Mahoning Valley. The distance may not suit her though as she figures to settle back early and will have to run down the leaders in the lane. I expect she picks off horses late but not sure she will have time to get to the winner.

Taking a chance that the first timers are going to need a race as I'll look to the one I know is fit, with hopes she gets away cleanly from the inside. 1-KEEP LEFT is probably overdue for her first career win but she has been right there late in two of her last three starts. With the ability to show speed and the shorter distance, let's see if she can shake loose early and never look back. 6-GETTIN DOWN is one of two entered in here to debut for Rivelli as she has spent the winter getting ready in Florida. She is well bred and gets Lasix for the debut. The works aren't overly quick, but the most recent gate drill shows that we may be able to expect a little bit of early foot from her. 7-MISS MIA drops in class off a start that was respectable while facing better last out. She was only beaten three lengths in the slop and potentially could find an off track once again. With just a slight improvement in here, she figures to contend late.

Have to stick with the hot hand and that is the Vanden Berg barn as 1-FOLLOW THE SIGNS is well placed to win today. He ran a solid race in his first start of the meet and I was surprised that Upbeat Melody kept running on in that spot. He has enough speed to rate close early here as the two next to him are likely to carve out the early fractions. 5-NYOMAN loves this Hawthorne strip, with 11 lifetime victories here and 28/36 ITM over the track. He has tactical speed and looks to settle in the second flight as there should be enough pace to settle behind and run on in the lane. 2-TIME HEIST is one of those with speed as he makes his first start of the year. He has just the one work toward the return but it was a snappy drill as he should be on the gas from the start today.

Actually a little surprised to see 2-VALIANTLY DISCREET on the class drop here off a solid effort in his last. He has speed and should be able to clear in here. With a track that has favored speed early in the meet one would think he clears and never looks back. 7-SOVIET STANDARD was a horse that I liked in his first start of the meet and he responded nicely with a good score. He was bumped at the start in that race but once he leveled out he showed a strong stride and finished well. He may be able to contend at a price again today. 5-BEEASY comes out of the same race as Valiantly Discreet last out but just ran evenly in that spot. He does have some starts last spring where he showed early speed and has every right to improve off his last. 

Going to be really right or really wrong in here. There looks to be so much early pace in this race that it appears to be a complete fall apart race. I'm tossing all the speed and looking to runners to come from off the pace. 7-STOPSHOPPINGAMY has the running style as well as the class that fits in here. She makes her first start of the meet and has a couple of works toward the return. She likes this track and should get a perfect trip. Let's see if she runs on late. 6-RACETOTHEFINISH is another that figures to settle and run on late. She has been away since September but is working consistently toward the return. She has some back class and may sneak away at a bit of a price. 8-MY MORNING GAL is another worth a look at a price. She's another with a nice pattern of works toward the return and should get the right pace setup ahead of her. The only question will be if she fits in this class.

A really nice field to go two turns here as there appears to be a decent amount of early pace once again. 5-BANDIT SWANSON ran here last fall and posted a big race before heading to Churchill for his next start. He returns off a short layoff today but looks to get a perfect trip. His recent three quarter of a mile work over the track was strong as he should close quickly in this spot. 3-W W CRAZY is a horse that could sneak in at a price for solid connections. If the track comes up off it will benefit his chances for sure as fitness does not appear to be an issue either. Let's see how many he can pick off late. 1-DREAM KEEPER likes the track and typically runs a race followed by a break in between starts. He does have speed though but may also have company early on. He appears fit coming into here and is also solid at the distance.

Have to think the class drop will be enough for 9-CAJUN PUZZLER to get the job done in this spot. He has spent his entire career at Gulfstream and ships North today. His last effort was better and the 16th shorter for distance could also benefit. Let's see if he can track from the outside and run on late. 7-PERFUMER will benefit if the is a contested pace upfront early on. He was running on late in his last and had to angle to the center of the track to make his move. He may get enough pace to chase in here. Love seeing a White horse run as 3-MICHAEL GEORGE hasn't shown much and is going to be a big price. He has been facing better in each start though and will benefit from some pace to chase. Maybe he improves in here.