Handicapper Tips & Picks

Tough to ignore much from Vanden Berg at this early stage of the meet with the barn on a HOT streak to start the 2023 season and showing up here with the logical #6 LIGHTNING CASHES. This will be their second start of the meet though coming out of the higher level Special Weight event just two weeks ago to run back in for a tag. Their maiden claiming effort (B OptixGRADE/71 OptixFIG) from back on 12/17 stacks right up on par. 

In terms of pace, the early pace should be contentious, a scenario that benefits and upgrades #3 GUST OF WIND as the "lone closer" shown as a Large Square in Quad IV. 

Looking at the Pace/OptixPLOT for this race the "Fire" Contention and higher 34 SpeedRate should see pressure on the pacesetters and a potential vulnerability to morning line favorite, #2 IRONMAN RICHIE as a Quad I Circle. They should have the edge over #4 SUNDAY MISCHIEF (Large Circle, lack of finishing ability in relation to the others) though lack the finishing (Square) ability of rival, #5 KANITHAPPEN upgraded of that set. The pace scenario should all pace for closers #1 CAPTAIN CARNEGIE and #6 TEA AFTER BALLET, though their riders must still work to stay engaged to some extent with that first flight to avoid too much to do late with the 5.5f distance. That could be a challenge for #3 K T'S JILTED GROOM sitting deeper in Quad IV of that set. 

Cook has been another barn to follow early in the meet with early success and will be represented here by #3 FIRST SQUADRON coming back for her second start of the meet. While the 3/9 effort stacks up on par, she will be required to pair up efforts and could find pace pressure (Quad I) today as shown on OptixPLOT where another top effort will be required. 

#2 PRANCIPANTS (Surface/Distance) could be looking for first run with form at this level from last season with numbers on par. The trip for #6 PRINCESS CONSUELA should be right there as well and one that sits closest to the eligibility cutoff (10/23/22) with her win here last season on 10/16. 

#4 WANNA HAVE FUN is also given a mention with the expected value, Contention, back numbers and recency with the second start off the layoff. Number wise she is on the softer side, though part of that is due to her running style and tendency to break slow - factors she again must overcome to compete especially for that top spot. 

This is a tricky event starting with the runners with experience and that group of four stepping up in class for this race and lacking any strong edge over each other. #1 KEEP LEFT could end up shorter than the morning line suggests coming in from the Fair Grounds with some of the higher figures and potential pace (Quad I Square) advantage. #3 JEMEZ FALLS another "Square" that does hold a progressive pattern though tends to run from off the pace and steps back up to open company today. It is worth noting the WEATHER conditions on 3/12 with the race run in the rain/snow. With the condition of those with race experience, that opens up the race to the new faces with #5 SISTER SWEDE racing for Tanner, another live barn that could have another live one here. 

Rivelli will sent out a pair with #4 OPALINE and #6 GETTIN DOWN and the barn overall more than capable with debuting runners, has these two coming in with some gaps in works and delays to making their debut. 

#2 VALIANTLY DISCREET is positioned as the horse to beat and the one to catch (Quad I Square) in this event. 

Looking to stalk-and-pounce, #5 BEEASY returns from the 3/5 race and looking for a better start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and ride (TACTIC-) from Baird to move up in this race. In terms of value, #6 TOM'S LAST GENERAL fits in that role in a similar Plot position/shape to BEEASY and was given a look when entered under similar conditions to today's race on 3/12, though unable to compete that afternoon as a vet scratch. 

Tough to get too creative in this race with the logical runners a fit in this race. #7 STOPSHOPPINGAMY given a slight class edge returning to the statebred level and turning in a competitive race under similar conditions here last June. Trainer Armando Hernandez has started off well with a limited sample of runners and that along with the distance, the timing of this race could present the advantage over #6 RACETOTHE FINISH looking to separate the two. Becker will also return with #3 GHAALEB'S DOMAIN off the layoff, one that projects to show early speed though also must require improvement returning from the layoff at this level. 

#5 BANDIT SWANSON returns to Hawthorne with some class relief exiting the recent stakes race at Turfway Park and higher level race par events out in Kentucky. Prior to those races, they gave a solid effort here at Hawthorne on November 13th, a restricted Optional Claiming level event similar to today's conditions. 

#2 BUCK MOON looks to have some intent from Rivelli picking this spot returning from the layoff noting they were entered on 3/16 in another Optional Claiming $40k event and landing here by choice - trainer scratch. 

Class is the best test and could prove to be a legit hurdle for #8 ANDREW THE GIANT, though still one give a mention here with some buried form from last season and form that going back to prior Hawthorne seasons and races over this main track around two-turns. Class is also noted for #9 SILVER QUARTERS returning from the layoff for this race and back in against open company - a potential "prep" sign. 

Class and numbers fit for #3 W W CRAZY on his best day though has some hurdles to consider returning from the layoff and back at the route distance. He has been able to compete and win at the route/two-turn distance though a lot of that was based on the level of his competition in those races. 

At the projected morning line, #1 STAN THE CAMERAMAN moves up in this race and according to the Plot (Standard/current form) as a Quad I Square. They ship in for this race with some recency and back in for the claiming tag and out of the 3/3 race at Fonner, stalked by the 1-2 chalk winner to finish in blanket for minors. 

#7 PERFUMER wheels right back for this race and off a BTL show finish under similar conditions (shorter distance) just two weeks ago. #8 CHIEF MYSTIQUE also returns from that race and could get overlooked here off the 5th place result and not the B- OptixGRADE (and Plot position/shape) that keeps them right back in contention here.

Class wise this will be the easiest spot for #9 CAJUN PUZZLER since he began his career and looking to use that edge against today's group. His early speed could make things tougher on some of the local runners that have shown speed and lacked finish over this course and under similar maiden conditions here at Hawthorne. 

#4 KING ZION could show an upgraded Plot position based on his overall experience and that in relation to the others lightly raced in this race. 

#6 MIDNIGHT MAJESTY fits right back at this level and turning back to a sprint for Diodoro. They are preferred off the visuals to #7 VOBISCUM those two returning from the 2/17 common race. 

#8 LUCKY DUDE carries some upside with the class relief to run at this level exiting higher race par/purse/claiming N2L conditioned races this season. 

While the early pace projects to be Contentious, #2 BLOW TORCH could hold a slight edge while slightly under the radar with their tactical speed cutting back to a sprint. 

#2 PIZZA CHARLIE will find class relief to run in this spot with the drop in maiden claiming tag, as well as facing many AR-bred runners in this field.

The other non-statebred runners: #3 STRICKLAND is also upgraded in this case and with some subtle form and buried trips with the BTL effort on 2/19 and B- OptixGRADE effort on 3/3. #4 OUT OF ALCATRAZ comes into this race softer on numbers than the other two, though still carries upside in his own right with the EX - EXCUSE from the TROUBLE on 2/19 and followed up with the poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and in both cases not asked/NO_PUSH for run following the early adversity.

#7 SUNSIGN returns here off a solid B OptixGRADE/71 OptixFIG run on 2/26 though will be tested for stamina once again as well as the ability to pair up top efforts. 

#2 COLONEL BOWMAN bucked the "cold" streak for Jacobson with his win on 2/20 though will be tested right back in this spot and with a potentially more contentious pace. Part of that pace could include #4 LT. JUNIOR GRADE, one that has form on his best day and even enough early foot to position himself as the controlling speed if allowed.

That pace could assist #3 PIONEERING PAPA coming back to the starter allowance level on short rest, the 13-day turnaround looking to pair up wins. 

#5 FREUDIAN FATE is a little light number wise though does have form coming into this race and progress into this third start of the cycle. 

#7 KENTUCKY BOURBON has a bad habit (SLOG) that does not project to be "fixed" here though the significant class drop and edge of the field should assist to compensate. 

#2 KING DOODLE with a bit more tactical speed could hold the edge over #3 ORDER OF MERIT as the other "logical" types. 

#6 THINKINGNDRINKING is lighter on numbers and requires a step up to get on the level of those rivals. He has some upside with buried form this year, the BTL effort on 2/10 and cutting back to a sprint exiting the off tracks as still a lightly raced type. #4 MATTFOLEYVANMAN also coming off the "sloppy" track race just two weeks ago, earning a new top figure that day will be tested to repeat and do so against a higher race par. 

The class drop off the win for #9 MAHOMEY carries some concerns overall running back in this spot for the tag. #6 HAMAZING WISDOM will also make that same move though the move looks to be the right one for this horse as he has been overmatched in at allowance company and seeking the right level. 

Asmussen will send out the entry with #1 HOLDING PATTERN first off the claim and #1A J. E.'S HANDMEDOWN, one that could project a move forward off a subtle trip on 3/2 and returning today with a key rider change to Santana. 

#10 HERITAGE PARK takes up the outside though has enough tactical speed in today's race shape to establish position on or near the lead as necessary. 

#8 ARMAN lands in this race and a more favorable spot than the 3/17 8.5f allowance against older he was scratched from to run here instead. ARMAN showed a lot of ability winning on debut though has not had much in his favor since and that includes the layoff pattern. This will be his second start off the layoff and in the right spot for him to show who he is. 

#1 EASY ACTION might be worth another look at the route distance given the trip on 2/18 though today is not that day with the connections looking to regain some confidence off that effort here back at a sprint. In addition to distance, timing might not have been ideal in that first start against winners when peaking with the top figure on 1/28 and wheeling back in three weeks off that effort noting the 33-days since here. 

#3 AMERICAN OUTLAW will also return with a distance change though in his case the one turn might be what he is looking for all along. The time to regroup and reset for this spot could also be on his side. 

Many of this field will exit a common race back on 3/2 with #5 MOUNT CRAIG likely going to be the preferred of that group here. His trip was not ideal though can create some of his own trouble with the pattern of breaking slow and his overall run style. The fifth place run from #3 ATLANTIC DANCER was right in line with MOUNT CRAIG given he had to make his move against the dynamic and despite the change in finishing position. 

#6 BOLZY has the challenge that day giving up experience overall and around two turns, though now has that on his side coming back for this race from the WIDE trip and to his credit improved and still lightly raced could hold another move forward. 

Pacesetter #8 LIFE ON THE NILE has lacked finish without excuse and a concern once again. That could assist a trip for #4 GOIN TO THE SHOW one that might look to trade placed with LIFE ON THE NILE stalking that runner and falling into a "first run" type trip.

#10 ONTHESTAGE is a "new" face against that group and overall as this will be just his third lifetime start. Improvement is once again required though to his credit did make progress coming off a slight freshening for the second start on 2/25. 

Taking on winners for the first time is a test and takes some class to make that jump; #5 TIVY will look to do just that on the 19-day turnaround though could find himself in the right time and place with his current form and complexion of this field where he fits right in. 

#1 WILD MULE cuts back to a sprint, a positive change from the route experiment last month. A different experiment will be in play here as the blinkers go on for the first time. WILD MULE has yet to take that big step forward from his juvenile season and that is his to prove here. #8 TOO MUCH INFO ran against WILD MULE in the Advent Stakes back in December and has not been seen since. Those layoff lines are the main concern as clearly there is some issue keeping this one from the track and in a race. 

#7 LIL SWEET THANG could sneak under the radar making his second start of the meet and off some form racing out of town. His effort in the 2/18 allowance showed more run with the potential IMPROVE especially with some changes for this spot. While he has spent half of his career thus far around two-turns, the ONE_TURN could be his preferred.  

This race starts with the discussion of the runners here returning from the 2/26 common race, a race that was run in poor WEATHER conditions in the rain and FOG tough to see. The winner MAHOMEY (Race 5) is running earlier on the card and for this event, the place finisher #10 LOCHMOOR projects to find attention of the group returning here. While he is tough to knock off the effort, he is a closing type (Quad IV Square) as something to factor with that projected shorter number and could see others step up from that race given the conditions and outcome. 

#7 TOPF ROAD RULES being one of those as intent seemed in play on 2/26 making their second start off the layoff and cut back to a sprint. Intent aside, trip was compromised with the outside draw poor start/TROUBLE_S and WIDE trip that followed. 

#1 DATA STORM did not run in that 2/26 race, though did try to run that day however unable to draw in off the AE. That is noted with the layoff since 1/22 and also could be overlooked. A top effort is required for this level though has races on their best day and a run style that could work out a run in this field. 

#12 BETTYS CASH wheels right back in just 12-days for this race and could be a positive sign that the connections were expecting a little more overall and no worse for the wear coming back for this race.